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Old 11-11-09, 01:08 PM   #1
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New Study – No increase in airborne CO2 since 1850

The University of Bristol announced a new study by Dr. Wolfgang Knorr to be published in Geophysical Research Letters. This study will likely set the climate world on its ear. Dr. Knorr claims in his new study that airborne fractions of CO2 has increased only 0.7 +- 1.4 % per decade, which is essentially zero. Dr. Knorr based his findings on actual measurements and statistical data, including historic records from Antarctic ice. Unlike most studies, it does not rely on model computations.

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New data show that the balance between the airborne and the absorbed fraction of carbon dioxide has stayed approximately constant since 1850, despite emissions of carbon dioxide having risen from about 2 billion tons a year in 1850 to 35 billion tons a year now.

This suggests that terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans have a much greater capacity to absorb CO2 than had been previously expected.

The results run contrary to a significant body of recent research which expects that the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans to absorb CO2 should start to diminish as CO2 emissions increase, letting greenhouse gas levels skyrocket. Dr Wolfgang Knorr at the University of Bristol found that in fact the trend in the airborne fraction since 1850 has only been 0.7 ± 1.4% per decade, which is essentially zero.
The strength of the new study, published online in Geophysical Research Letters, is that it rests solely on measurements and statistical data, including historical records extracted from Antarctic ice, and does not rely on computations with complex climate models.

This work is extremely important for climate change policy, because emission targets to be negotiated at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen early next month have been based on projections that have a carbon free sink of already factored in. Some researchers have cautioned against this approach, pointing at evidence that suggests the sink has already started to decrease.

So is this good news for climate negotiations in Copenhagen? “Not necessarily”, says Knorr. “Like all studies of this kind, there are uncertainties in the data, so rather than relying on Nature to provide a free service, soaking up our waste carbon, we need to ascertain why the proportion being absorbed has not changed”.

Another result of the study is that emissions from deforestation might have been overestimated by between 18 and 75 per cent. This would agree with results published last week in Nature Geoscience by a team led by Guido van der Werf from VU University Amsterdam. They re-visited deforestation data and concluded that emissions have been overestimated by at least a factor of two.
Bristol University | News from the University | Climate change
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Old 11-11-09, 09:46 PM   #2
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Re: New Study – No increase in airborne CO2 since 1850


"But Dr Wolfgang Knorr cautioned that the world should still be trying to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as part of any climate change deal decided in Copenhagen next month.

He pointed out that the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is still increasing, even though half is absorbed by the Earth. Also there are fears that the oceans and soil become saturated and are unable to absorb any more CO2 in the future."
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Old 11-12-09, 07:05 AM   #3
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Re: New Study – No increase in airborne CO2 since 1850

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Originally Posted by Cassandra View Post

"But Dr Wolfgang Knorr cautioned that the world should still be trying to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as part of any climate change deal decided in Copenhagen next month.

He pointed out that the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is still increasing, even though half is absorbed by the Earth. Also there are fears that the oceans and soil become saturated and are unable to absorb any more CO2 in the future."
Most people that reply to a thread offer a contribution. Parroting the OP is NOT a contribution.

Of course, this landmark paper by a renowned scientist, totally debunks the findings of your "nephew" as you've described his work.
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Last edited by Gill; 11-12-09 at 07:09 AM.
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Old 11-12-09, 07:08 AM   #4
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Re: New Study – No increase in airborne CO2 since 1850

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Originally Posted by Cassandra View Post

"But Dr Wolfgang Knorr cautioned that the world should still be trying to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as part of any climate change deal decided in Copenhagen next month.

He pointed out that the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is still increasing, even though half is absorbed by the Earth. Also there are fears that the oceans and soil become saturated and are unable to absorb any more CO2 in the future."
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Old 11-13-09, 07:29 PM   #5
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Re: New Study – No increase in airborne CO2 since 1850

The title of this thread is extremely misleading. The paper doesn't say that there has been no increase in amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, rather it says that the the fraction of C02 that is not being absorbed (~40%) has stayed about the same, meaning carbon sinks probably aren't as saturated as we previously thought. This isn't going to "turn the climate world on it's ear" because all it tells us is that we can expect similar absorption rates in the future rather than declining ones.
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Old 11-16-09, 06:47 AM   #6
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Re: New Study – No increase in airborne CO2 since 1850

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The title of this thread is extremely misleading. The paper doesn't say that there has been no increase in amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, rather it says that the the fraction of C02 that is not being absorbed (~40%) has stayed about the same, meaning carbon sinks probably aren't as saturated as we previously thought. This isn't going to "turn the climate world on it's ear" because all it tells us is that we can expect similar absorption rates in the future rather than declining ones.
Not misleading at all... it clearly states that airborne CO2 has not increased since 1850. Does the title state as you claim "no increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere?" No it doesn't does it??

The percentage of airborne CO2 is NOT increasing as every climate paper is claiming if this paper is correct. Any person not saturated in alarmist Kool-Aid would absolutely believe this paper turns the climate world on it's ear.
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Old 11-16-09, 08:34 AM   #7
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Re: New Study – No increase in airborne CO2 since 1850

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Not misleading at all... it clearly states that airborne CO2 has not increased since 1850. Does the title state as you claim "no increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere?" No it doesn't does it??
I think most people would interpret those two phrases to mean the same thing, but, whatever there's no point in arguing this.

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The percentage of airborne CO2 is NOT increasing as every climate paper is claiming if this paper is correct. Any person not saturated in alarmist Kool-Aid would absolutely believe this paper turns the climate world on it's ear.
Tell me what is the significance of this paper? Why does the fact that there's been no change in the airborne fraction of CO2 "turn the climate world on it's ear"?
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Old 11-16-09, 08:46 AM   #8
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Re: New Study – No increase in airborne CO2 since 1850

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Originally Posted by Frank Talk View Post
I think most people would interpret those two phrases to mean the same thing, but, whatever there's no point in arguing this.



Tell me what is the significance of this paper? Why does the fact that there's been no change in the airborne fraction of CO2 "turn the climate world on it's ear"?
Uhhh, do I really need to explain the significance of this??? I'm really quite amazed that you would even ask.

The entire theory that man is causing the temperatures to rise is that we are increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. If the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere is not increasing, a big hole is blown in the theory. If the percentage (fraction) is staying relatively stable, then that means the earth and oceans are absorbing a much larger percentage than previously thought. Global warming, as hypothesized by alarmists, cannot happen if the AMOUNT of CO2 does not increase in the atmosphere. In other words, the fraction or percentage of CO2 must increase in relation to the other atmospheric gases for warming to occur as hypothesized.
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Old 11-16-09, 11:12 AM   #9
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Re: New Study – No increase in airborne CO2 since 1850

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Originally Posted by Cassandra View Post
"But Dr Wolfgang Knorr cautioned that the world should still be trying to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as part of any climate change deal decided in Copenhagen next month.

He pointed out that the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is still increasing, even though half is absorbed by the Earth. Also there are fears that the oceans and soil become saturated and are unable to absorb any more CO2 in the future."

Wolfgang Knorr: Biographical Database: The Carbon Capture Report The Carbon Capture Report

Good bibliography to his work.
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Last edited by American; 11-16-09 at 11:14 AM.
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Old 11-16-09, 12:01 PM   #10
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Re: New Study – No increase in airborne CO2 since 1850

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Uhhh, do I really need to explain the significance of this??? I'm really quite amazed that you would even ask.

The entire theory that man is causing the temperatures to rise is that we are increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. If the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere is not increasing, a big hole is blown in the theory. If the percentage (fraction) is staying relatively stable, then that means the earth and oceans are absorbing a much larger percentage than previously thought. Global warming, as hypothesized by alarmists, cannot happen if the AMOUNT of CO2 does not increase in the atmosphere. In other words, the fraction or percentage of CO2 must increase in relation to the other atmospheric gases for warming to occur as hypothesized.
Except the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased, we know that from observations Mauna Loa as well as other sites. Dr. Knorr is not saying that there hasn't been an increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, what he is saying is that there has been no change in the fraction that is being absorbed vs. airborne. For example:

1850: 1,000 tons of CO2, 40% is airborne, 400 tons of airborne CO2

Today: 1,000,000 tons of CO2, 40% is airborne, 400,000 tons of airborne CO2

*The numbers aren't correct but they're just used to demonstrate the point

The amount of CO2 to in the atmosphere dramatically increased but the fraction that was airborne stayed the same hence why the the article says:

Quote:
He pointed out that the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is still increasing
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