AP IMPACT: Statisticians reject global cooling

cascadian · 10-26-09, 03:00 PM

Quote:

In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.

"If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a micro-trend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspect," said John Grego, a professor of statistics at the University of South Carolina.
....
The AP sent expert statisticians NOAA's year-to-year ground temperature changes over 130 years and the 30 years of satellite-measured temperatures preferred by skeptics and gathered by scientists at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

Statisticians who analyzed the data found a distinct decades-long upward trend in the numbers, but could not find a significant drop in the past 10 years in either data set. The ups and downs during the last decade repeat random variability in data as far back as 1880.

Saying there's a downward trend since 1998 is not scientifically legitimate, said David Peterson, a retired Duke University statistics professor and one of those analyzing the numbers.

source

Pretty much what I thought: choosing '98 as your starting point is pretty suspect.

Some things that I think should be interesting for skeptics:
1. this was a blind data set with no preconcieved notions or political motivations
2. this was confirmed outside of the supposedly suspect field of climatology

What say ye, warming skeptics?

Goshin · 10-26-09, 04:20 PM

"And-d t-that about wraps it-t up for the glob-b-bal c-cooling theory, everyone!"

shivvery.JPG

Sir Loin · 10-26-09, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cascadian

source

Pretty much what I thought: choosing '98 as your starting point is pretty suspect.

Some things that I think should be interesting for skeptics:
1. this was a blind data set with no preconcieved notions or political motivations
2. this was confirmed outside of the supposedly suspect field of climatology

What say ye, warming skeptics?

Where are the folks stating there has been a cooling trend? I'm not familiar with them, elsewhere or here at DP. Now folks who point out there has not been any significant warming for a decade, which flies in the face of predictions, I know where a lot of them are at. Elsewhere and here. It just seems to me you are addressing a subject that is not been put forth for debate.

independent_thinker2002 · 10-26-09, 04:54 PM

Climatologists doubt statisticians' knowledge on climate matters.

MrVicchio · 10-27-09, 05:32 AM

Climate science isn't statistical science.

GORSH!

And the AP is a mouth piece of the Obama Admin, hardly news I'd trust.

Middleground · 10-27-09, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sir Loin

Now folks who point out there has not been any significant warming for a decade.

As compared to what?

Kernel Sanders · 10-27-09, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sir Loin

Where are the folks stating there has been a cooling trend? I'm not familiar with them, elsewhere or here at DP. Now folks who point out there has not been any significant warming for a decade, which flies in the face of predictions, I know where a lot of them are at. Elsewhere and here. It just seems to me you are addressing a subject that is not been put forth for debate.

Below are three threads started this month claiming global cooling.

http://www.debatepolitics.com/Enviro...l-warming.html (What happened to global warming?)

http://www.debatepolitics.com/Enviro...l-warming.html (What happened to global warming?)

http://www.debatepolitics.com/Enviro...ing-trend.html (New Paper Confirms Global Cooling Trend)

This article is a weird way to combat this myth. As others have posted climate and statistical science are not the same, though treating them as such is the kind of thing that gets you the "global cooling" idea. It's unsurprising that this came from AP rather than some climate researcher, though, because this "debate" happens entirely within political circles. I feel bad for anybody who gets their climate news from political blogs or the MSM.

Gill · 10-27-09, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kernel Sanders

Below are three threads started this month claiming global cooling.

http://www.debatepolitics.com/Enviro...l-warming.html (What happened to global warming?)

http://www.debatepolitics.com/Enviro...l-warming.html (What happened to global warming?)

http://www.debatepolitics.com/Enviro...ing-trend.html (New Paper Confirms Global Cooling Trend)

This article is a weird way to combat this myth. As others have posted climate and statistical science are not the same, though treating them as such is the kind of thing that gets you the "global cooling" idea. It's unsurprising that this came from AP rather than some climate researcher, though, because this "debate" happens entirely within political circles. I feel bad for anybody who gets their climate news from political blogs or the MSM.

Hmm, I post a thread on a peer reviewed scientific paper that shows global cooling and not one single alarmists has bothered to post a reply.

A newspaper article with no data, no graphs, and no real information on the basis of how these "statisticians" performed their analysis gets all kinds of replies from the chicken littles.

And in the next thread, they'll be screaming that blogs and newspaper articles must be ignored in deference to science.

They are a funny bunch.

Middleground · 10-27-09, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gill

Hmm, I post a thread on a peer reviewed scientific paper that shows global cooling and not one single alarmists has bothered to post a reply.

A newspaper article with no data, no graphs, and no real information on the basis of how these "statisticians" performed their analysis gets all kinds of replies from the chicken littles.

And in the next thread, they'll be screaming that blogs and newspaper articles must be ignored in deference to science.

They are a funny bunch.

The "peer-reviewed" paper was published by the place that he works for. Whenever it's published by a relevant and recognized scientific source, I'll take notice.

Kernel Sanders · 10-27-09, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gill

Hmm, I post a thread on a peer reviewed scientific paper that shows global cooling and not one single alarmists has bothered to post a reply.

A newspaper article with no data, no graphs, and no real information on the basis of how these "statisticians" performed their analysis gets all kinds of replies from the chicken littles.

And in the next thread, they'll be screaming that blogs and newspaper articles must be ignored in deference to science.

They are a funny bunch.

I don't frequent environmental threads on DP because the discussions are scientifically ridiculous (on both sides), and everyone tends to grasp on one or two specific datasets or studies that neatly confirm their previous conclusions. Add in that those on the side of denial can never decide if they're supposed to not believe in climate change or anthropogenic climate change and the whole the whole subforum becomes uninteresting to put much time into.

10-26-09, 04:20 PM	#2
Goshin Bigger Hammer Join Date: Mar 2009 Last Seen: Yesterday 11:55 PM Location: Dixie Posts: 3,738 Thanks: 3,792 Thanked 3,151 Times in 1,511 Posts Lean: Independent Gender:	Re: AP IMPACT: Statisticians reject global cooling "And-d t-that about wraps it-t up for the glob-b-bal c-cooling theory, everyone!" shivvery.JPG
	__________________ The "slippery slope fallacy" does not apply if the slope is greased and you're being pushed. Luke 22:36 ...he that hath no sword, let him sell his garment, and buy one. .

10-26-09, 04:54 PM	#4
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10-27-09, 05:32 AM	#5
MrVicchio Navy Veteran Join Date: Aug 2007 Last Seen: Today 03:02 AM Location: San Antonio Texas Posts: 8,106 Thanks: 989 Thanked 2,587 Times in 1,480 Posts Lean: Very Conservative Gender: Total Awards: 1	Re: AP IMPACT: Statisticians reject global cooling Climate science isn't statistical science. GORSH! And the AP is a mouth piece of the Obama Admin, hardly news I'd trust.
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