Gill

Dr. Craig Loehle has written a new paper, "Trend analysis of satellite global temperature data", analyzing global temperature trends based on satellite data. Since sat. data has only been available since 1979, that is the start date of Dr. Loehle's research.

Dr. Loehle found that temperatures have varied, even over this relatively short time span. Global temperature started the study period in a declining mode, then rose for a number of years before declining again for the past 12 - 13 years. Research cited in his paper confirm that a cycle is apparent in the temperature record that is obvious from the mid 1800s to the present. These studies predicted a cooling trend between 2001 and 2010. Satellite temperature data and ocean heat content measurements are confirming their predictions.

The temperature data reported in this paper, along with the temperature cycles shown in other papers are proving climate models inaccurate. Although some variation was anticipated by global climate modelers, long-term cooling of more than a few years was not. Clearly, as has been expressed by many, the complexity of the climate can not be easily modeled or predicted. Predictions of catastrophic warming by the IPCC and others is based entirely on the outcome of global circulation model forecasts.

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There is so much unforced variability in the system which we can’t predict — the chaotic component of the climate system — which is not predictable beyond two weeks, even theoretically.
Gavin Schmidt, NASA GISS