Originally Posted by link

Polling data is what seems to concern the doubters. Low polling numbers would appear to be an indictment. Last quarter in New Hampshire, Ron Paul was polling at 2% in those polls which included him.

This quarter, a recent poll in New Hampshire shows Ron Paul with 6%, 22% of those being black voters. That represents 66% increase over last quarter’s poll numbers. Where his competitors are just jockeying for position, Ron Paul is gaining significantly. By the way, in 2000, only 10% of Black voters gave Bush the nod.

I’ve previously written about the way these polls are conducted and their usefulness in predicting outcomes (they can’t by definition). However, there is historical data that also tends to support the idea that early polls are not reliable predictors.

In 2003, prior to the New Hampshire and Iowa primaries, Al Sharpton was beating John Kerry in the polls 5% to 4%. Kerry went on to win both primaries and shortly thereafter was polling nationally at 53%. That’s either a very large bump or a very inaccurate result prior to the primary.