1992 was a long time ago, if some don't believe the numbers, that's life. The problem with Trump is a lot of folks view him as a Democrat running as a Republican. An opportunist who take advantage of a 17 candidate field. Personally, I think the Republicans blew it when they nominated Trump. He was about the only candidate that could lose to Hillary. The polls during the primary in head to head match ups prove it. Or at least lets us know who would be leading whom at that time. Not now. Actually, I am surprised to see Trump as close as he is. Especially with his foot and mouth disease and Trump acting more like a 5th grade schoolyard bully than a presidential candidate.
Perhaps he has been persuaded to act more presidential by his advisors. He has been doing that for the last week or two. It also has paid off as he has narrowed Clinton's lead. But he still hasn't unified the Republican Party and seems unwilling to do so. Could it be grudges that he still holds, some of those whom he created feuds with sure do.
What is interesting when going over the numbers, using RCP averages is Trump is only getting 78% of the Republican base vote. Romney received 93% back in 2012 and still lost. But of those 22% not supporting Trump, 9% are going to Gary Johnson and Jill Stein is getting 1%. Clinton is receiving 6% of the Republican base vote, the same identical percentage Obama received in 2012. So the anti-Trump Republicans are not going for Clinton even though some very high profile Republicans have stated they will vote for her. The rest state they will not vote or undecided.
But Clinton also has her problems with her base vote. With both candidates having huge problems with their base, it is no wonder both are stuck at 40% or a point or two above. She is also receiving 78% of the Democratic base vote, but she has a larger base than the Republicans. Johnson is getting 6% and Stein 5% of the Democratic base vote. Trump is getting 4%. Clinton has a problem with young voters between 18 to 30. I would guess, most were Sanders supporters. Clinton is getting 40% of the young 18-30 to Trump's 28%, Obama won this age group 62-38%. Although Trump is ten points behind Romney's showing back in 2012, Clinton is a whopping 22 points behind Obama. Johnson is getting 18% of these young voters and Stein 8%, the rest are either won't vote or undecided.
This is a unique election, neither candidate is approaching the historical averages one would expect the two major party's candidate to receive. This is because of both candidate high dislike factor among the American public as a whole. Romney won the white vote 59-39 in 2012, Trump leads Clinton among whites 46-31, Johnson is getting 11% of the white vote, Stein 3%. Obama had an 82-16 advantage among non-whites, he received 93% of the black vote, 71% of the Hispanic vote and 73% of the Asian vote. Clinton is leading among non-whites 66-15 with Johnson getting 6% and Stein 3%. Surprisingly, Trump's 15% is right there with what Romney received among non-whites back in 2012, it is Clinton who is having a problem of matching Obama's 82%.
So what does all of this mean? It means neither major party candidate is going to meet historical averages of most other major party candidates. But in an election this unique, again I point to the dislike factor, neither one needs to to win. Clinton still has the advantage only because the Democrats have a larger base vote, so Trump must attract independents and third party voters more than he is doing now. The question is how and can he do it?
