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Thread: The Left better brace itself for war

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    The Left better brace itself for war

    I need to do a quick preamble on a very important topic, first, before I get into this discussion: Why aren't blacks voting for Bernie Sanders? Now after he's begun losing handedly in this demographic, people are now very concerned about why this is, and in response I think there have been some thoughtful responses in the African-American community, which I encourage people to read. The reasons are interesting and worth taking on board, but the reality is, it's too little and too late. At the core of it, there's a fundamental ideological difference between the two voting blocs that are most necessary to the success of the Democratic party. The first are Millennials, and the second are African-Americans/non-Millennial women.


    Millennials have been taking it from the system since they got into the job market, they are "shockingly progressive," it's difficult to understate how irritated and mad they are, and it's also difficult to explain how anti-establishment they are. To contrast this, Hillary represents the Establishment, she's made no bones about how much of a part of the establishment she is, she openly takes money from Wall Street/Big Pharma/private prisons, and she openly will not tolerate single-payer healthcare, free tuition for state schools, and she will not break up the banks. That's a long winded way of saying that Millennials are wildly unexcited about Hillary and fundamentally view her as being "essentially no better than a Republican." On top of this, there is a pretty ubiquitous sense that if anyone other than Bernie is elected, there will be a second financial collapse. That means that for Millennials, Hillary is a pill that is going to be very hard to choke down, and this will cost her votes in the general election.

    Blacks and non-Millennial women have different motivations, but the thinking is roughly the same: They want to see someone who they can affect a small amount of change and protect them from their extreme enemy, the Republicans. Particularly Southern Blacks (as per the article above) seem to feel that they are always on the losing end of the stick, so slow and steady change is preferable and sustainable. Women (e.g. in Texas) have been the target of many conservative attacks, and their abortion rights and rights in general have been a target of the extreme Tea Party craze of the last 6 years. Even though Sanders' policies would in principle help blacks and older women, there's a general sense that Hillary will handle this better and so they are willing to accept an ***-****ing from the establishment because for them, it's the lesser of two evils. And this general sentiment has very likely cost Sanders the primary, coupled to a set of other factors (i.e. The Establishment doesn't like it when you're against them).


    Now, here's the problem. Democrats absolutely need both Millennials and blacks/women and Latinos to win the upcoming election. Those demographics are the key to the Democratic Party's success (If they get them, they will obliterate the Republicans in 2016). But here's the key problem: Clinton chose the nuclear option on Sanders' supporters as a part of her usual dirty tactics (Bernie bros, attacks on youth, etc) and the problem is that we are not thick enough to think that "Oh, well, Hillary didn't say those things personally, so I guess she isn't responsible for them."

    This means that the Left, in terms of serious supporters, is now divided into two halves that are quickly becoming unwilling to work with each other, because they perceive their interests as being ideologically opposed to each other, and view each other's candidates as being wildly unsavory. I don't know what this means for the future, other than that there's about to be a massive war between the Progressive Left and the Neoliberal New Democrats. The Progressive Left is obviously going to win based on demographics, but that may take time --time that we don't have if there's a second Great Recession.
    "The question is whether privileged elites should dominate mass-communication and should use this power, as they tell us they must [to] manipulate and deceive the 'stupid majority', and remove them from the public arena. The question, in brief, is whether Democracy and Freedom are values to be preserved or threats to be avoided." --Chomsky

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    Re: The Left better brace itself for war

    I think you overstate the divide, such as it is. Progressives like myself who prefer Bernie will happily vote for Hillary. Apart from her obvious superiority to whoever Republicans nominate, we will be motivated by the hatefulness of their rhetoric against her and also by the necessity of a Democrat filling the Scalia vacancy.

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    Re: The Left better brace itself for war

    Sometimes the tea leaves in your cup are just refuse.

    I don't see a major issue for young progressives, they have time on their side to change the world (remember that from our 'hippy' era?)

    In this country there is little done at microwave speed. Think about SSM and how long that fight went on before 'suddenly' it was popular.

    Time will tell if the DNC handles the more liberal elements any better than the RNC did theirs. I see no war at hand, more like a healthy debate for a decade or so... (do you think Wall Street, HealthCorp, and mega insurance would have waved the white flag if Bernie was elected????

    I see the beginning of a beginning, not a call to man the barricades (that would be the Rabid Right)...

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    Re: The Left better brace itself for war

    I don't see the obstacles in the Clinton camp eventually coming to Bernie's camp should the primaries go his way. Obviously I'm biased here, but all the more reason I need to be enlightened.

    I do, however, see the obstacles the other way around. Clinton is a corporate shill, and that's not something she can just get rid of. I think Bernie taking the nomination would give democrats a fighting chance but if Hillary wins the nominaton, the republicans will take the white house and everyone will know why.
    "Advocates of capitalism are apt to appeal to the sacred principles of liberty, which are embodied in one maxim: the fortunate must not be restrained in the exercise of tyranny over the unfortunate." - Bertrand Russell

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    Re: The Left better brace itself for war

    Quote Originally Posted by JackA View Post
    I think you overstate the divide, such as it is. Progressives like myself who prefer Bernie will happily vote for Hillary. Apart from her obvious superiority to whoever Republicans nominate, we will be motivated by the hatefulness of their rhetoric against her and also by the necessity of a Democrat filling the Scalia vacancy.
    Some will, some won't. I doubt it will be enough to cost her the 2016 general (It could be, but it's unlikely).

    The point that I'm making here is that New Democrats (Clinton-era Center-Right Democrats) are on borrowed time. They may take the 2016 nomination, but the demographics are shifting against the New Democrats and a lot of Bernie Sanders supporters like myself are not willing to compromise with the establishment on this. We may vote for Hillary in 2016, but that will come coupled with a plan to crush the New Democrat oligarchy. Youth are going to take back the Democratic party and forcibly remove the Clintonite establishment from power, and that's the war that I'm referencing.

    Quote Originally Posted by notquiteright View Post
    I don't see a major issue for young progressives, they have time on their side to change the world (remember that from our 'hippy' era?)
    Yes, the battle will take a decade or two --as I say in the OP.

    In this country there is little done at microwave speed. Think about SSM and how long that fight went on before 'suddenly' it was popular.
    It became popular in no small part due to Millennials. Another lesson that was taught to Millennials is that you have to dig your feet it in and push hard for something.

    Time will tell if the DNC handles the more liberal elements any better than the RNC did theirs. I see no war at hand, more like a healthy debate for a decade or so... (do you think Wall Street, HealthCorp, and mega insurance would have waved the white flag if Bernie was elected????
    No one thought that, including Sanders himself. With Clinton being the likely nominee, there's no need to even discuss the white flag. They're just walking right up to the door, with her arms open wide to them.

    I see the beginning of a beginning, not a call to man the barricades (that would be the Rabid Right)...
    If there's one thing that the Sanders candidacy taught me, it's how these two statements are necessarily related. The Clintonite Democratic establishment will not let go of the Democratic party willingly. It will need to be done with media wars and political battles.
    "The question is whether privileged elites should dominate mass-communication and should use this power, as they tell us they must [to] manipulate and deceive the 'stupid majority', and remove them from the public arena. The question, in brief, is whether Democracy and Freedom are values to be preserved or threats to be avoided." --Chomsky

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    Re: The Left better brace itself for war

    The OP makes some very good points about various ideological divisions within left leaning politics.

    But, I still suspect for the foreseeable future there will be enough common ground among left leaning voters to keep various movements going and probably not see the same cracks in the political foundation that right leaning voters are having to deal with today in the Republican Party.

    If we should be discussing anything along these lines it is perhaps that the "small amount of change (to) protect them" has not worked out quite as planned. For instance, when we do have economic complications there is still disparity in recovery between the nation overall and the black community. Even today, pockets of the nation right along ethnic lines suggest being behind the curve in employment, wage, and mobility. Another for instance, we have made up some ground but for the most part there is still plenty of disparity between incomes for women and men working similar jobs across many surprising industries. Including Hollywood or even the White House itself.

    Certain issues have made advancement but have also caused a sort of backlash in handling. SSM is a good example of that, where right leaning ran State governments are rushing out to promote legislation that ignores the Supreme Court or something else that causes Constitutional headaches. Like, "Religious protection" legislation. SSM may be settled as far as left leaning politics is concerned but the fight is far from over.

    I would agree that Democrats are depending upon the support of various minority groups, women, typical left leaning voters, and a few Independents. Even when all of those goals from the various groups can appear adversarial on paper, they is still more room for common ground than the real complications of staying home and allowing "extreme enemy, the Republicans" to win out. Especially to someone like anti-Establishment Trump. That is somewhat backed up by how the 112th - 114th Congresses have worked out, with the last one especially putting Obama's plans for anything left leaning in goals entirely on the back burner.

    Something else we might want to add to this discussion is the potential problems from extreme political positions leaving more people somewhere in the nebulous middle between the ideological wants of left and right leaning politics. Another way to say this is the potential fallout from division oriented politics causing already low party affiliation rates to continue to deteriorate. Anti-Establishment feedback is currently sending the GOP into a disaster, is there a chance this will happen to Democrats? Would Hillary be the one to cause it after a term or two in office? If that is enough to influence people to stay home then perhaps we have better explanation for why voter turnout dropped from 62% (ish) in 2008 to 57% (ish) in 2012. That continued alienation from either party's selling pitch might make 2016 worse.

    The caveat to that is considering someone like Trump gaining so much support that the "left" decides to delay their pending internal war and gather together just enough to ensure 2016 gives Hillary the win. If for no other reason than to prevent a lunatic from running the nation, so they will settle for a political insider with questionable intentions and ethics in Hillary knowing that by 2020 their situation will probably not be all that improved anyway.

    Somewhat depressing...
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

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    Re: The Left better brace itself for war

    the D's have an advantage with millennials, which according to Pew is +16, while that is significant it is not large enough to claim that the R's are the great enemy of the generation according to that generation.
    A Deep Dive Into Party Affiliation | Pew Research Center


    EDIT: I will add that this generation has been screwed from birth, and it started with horrendous parenting.
    New knowledge is the most valuable commodity on earth. The more truth we have to work with, the richer we become.<<<<<Kurt Vonnegut

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    Re: The Left better brace itself for war

    Quote Originally Posted by FieldTheorist View Post
    The Clintonite Democratic establishment will not let go of the Democratic party willingly. It will need to be done with media wars and political battles.
    I don't see the connection between the democratic establishment and democratic voters, past this debacle of an election.
    "Advocates of capitalism are apt to appeal to the sacred principles of liberty, which are embodied in one maxim: the fortunate must not be restrained in the exercise of tyranny over the unfortunate." - Bertrand Russell

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    Re: The Left better brace itself for war

    Quote Originally Posted by FieldTheorist View Post
    To contrast this, Hillary represents the Establishment, she's made no bones about how much of a part of the establishment she is, she openly takes money from Wall Street/Big Pharma/private prisons, and she openly will not tolerate single-payer healthcare, free tuition for state schools, and she will not break up the banks. That's a long winded way of saying that Millennials are wildly unexcited about Hillary and fundamentally view her as being "essentially no better than a Republican."
    When did Obama become a Republican?

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    Re: The Left better brace itself for war

    I don't understand the logic of a "war" in the democratic party. Granted, I'm neither a democrat nor a republican, and I vote based upon issues and individuals, not party lines. However, despite the fact that I have voted for more republican presidents than democrat in my lifetime, it's been quite a while since I've voted for a republican presidential candidate. After the debacle of the republicans currently running, I daresay that this election will be no different.

    I'll be voting for the democratic nominee unless something drastically changes, and I'll say out loud that I hope that nominee is Hillary. If it's not, yes, I'll vote for Sanders, because at this time more than ever SCOTUS nominees alone should have all people with socially liberal views giving any democrat running for president their vote.

    War? Where in hell did that come from? Am I hearing a "vote for our guy or we'll take our marbles and go home" kind of thing? Would social liberals actually take a chance for not just one, but the potential of three SCOTUS nominees coming from one of the jingle asses running on the republican side? Are y'all insane?

    Excuse me, I must now go beat my head on the nearest hard surface.

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