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The GOP polling debacle

lpast said:
Yup they just didnt get it...all the pollsters were in obama pocket...Oh well we know the real deal now dont we
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The really clever thing was how Nate Silver managed to get to all 50 states and maniupulate the results so that they matched his pre-election polls! The man is amazing!
 
Wiggen said:
The really clever thing was how Nate Silver managed to get to all 50 states and maniupulate the results so that they matched his pre-election polls! The man is amazing!
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After the election I watched him be interviewed...and he said...Some people vilify me and believe im a liar and some put me on a pedestal..he said my technique is not some magic wonder system, so intricate and deep and mysterious......its just very simple mathmatics
 
wolfman24 said:
I posted this before. According to a republican congressman Romney and Ryan and all of his chief people were buying into what Fox and the "scewed" pollster people were saying. they were absolutely convinced of victory. Romney had not intention of writing a concession speech because he believed loosing was not a consideration. From what this guy said after it became clear he was going to loose everybody in the room looked like they had witnessed an mulitple axe murder right in front of them

This level of arrogance and niavete was the main failing of the GOP in this race. The convinced themselves of thier own rightousness and were hand fed by such organs as Fox. It was a house of soggy cards and no body in the GOP brain trust saw it.
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If that's true, then that's unbelievable. It was always my impression that the "higher ups" in the Republican Party were more reasonable and connected to reality than the largest irrational voices of the party like Bill O'Reilly and Michelle Bachmann. It's really surprising to me to see that they are not and genuinely are up their own asses to the point where they will completely deny reality if they don't like it. Wow.
 
lpast said:
Lets not forget the republican govs suppressing the votes to help romney....florida had over 6 hr waits...do you think the elderly or people with any type of ailment or injury could handle that ? there were alot of voters didnt get to vote in fla...I hope it helps rick scott get his ass kicked out of the statehouse next election
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it's amazing how powerful Republicans are.. i mean, they can even cause long lines at polling places... they are craaaaazy powerful.
 
Thrilla said:
it's amazing how powerful Republicans are.. i mean, they can even cause long lines at polling places... they are craaaaazy powerful.
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Well, from what I understand, Florida cut early voting which caused longer lines on voting day. That's a basic cause and effect thing. It doesn't require that Republicans be "crazy powerful" so I don't know why you're being so condescending about it.
 
Thrilla said:
it's amazing how powerful Republicans are.. i mean, they can even cause long lines at polling places... they are craaaaazy powerful.
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Your right just look at who caused it in florida..>Rick Scott...every woman we talk too think he looks like a mental patient...that had his head shaved for shock treatments
 
ThePlayDrive said:
If that's true, then that's unbelievable. It was always my impression that the "higher ups" in the Republican Party were more reasonable and connected to reality than the largest irrational voices of the party like Bill O'Reilly and Michelle Bachmann. It's really surprising to me to see that they are not and genuinely are up their own asses to the point where they will completely deny reality if they don't like it. Wow.
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They mentioned this guys name I think inthis thread Steve Furman Is that right?
 
ThePlayDrive said:
Well, from what I understand, Florida cut early voting which caused longer lines on voting day. That's a basic cause and effect thing. It doesn't require that Republicans be "crazy powerful" so I don't know why you're being so condescending about it.
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yes, early voting was cut to 8 days...but that's only a piece of the pie.... from what i've read, he ballots were long and about 4,000 people had to use provisional ballots... voting took a bit of time to get through.
( provisional ballots are harder to counter, but casting it took the same amount of time)

i'm finding it difficult to have sympathy for people when they had a total of 9 days to drag their ass to the polls..... I mean, it's like waiting until Christmas eve to go shopping then bitching that the mall is busy.
 
lpast said:
Your right just look at who caused it in florida..>Rick Scott...every woman we talk too think he looks like a mental patient...that had his head shaved for shock treatments
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well damn, Floridian blue haired bitties not liking bald heads is certainly a rational argument against the guy :lol:
 
Thrilla said:
well damn, Floridian blue haired bitties not liking bald heads is certainly a rational argument against the guy :lol:
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Actually the real rational argument against him and the most appropriately descriptive is that hes a stone cold asshole
 
poweRob said:
Meatloaf was also thinking Repubs would gain.... Waaaaaait a sec... you meatloaf?
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No, I actually have talent :lol:

the Senate screwed up my average...I blame Harry Reid.:lol:

seriously, since our inception, a very good indicator of which party will take the Houses is watching the level of retiring congresscritters.... Dems had more than the GOP this go round, but it seems that particular indicator didn't do me any justice this time.
**** you historically accurate indicators.. **** you! :lol:
 
Thrilla said:
No, I actually have talent :lol:

the Senate screwed up my average...I blame Harry Reid.:lol:

seriously, since our inception, a very good indicator of which party will take the Houses is watching the level of retiring congresscritters.... Dems had more than the GOP this go round, but it seems that particular indicator didn't do me any justice this time.
**** you historically accurate indicators.. **** you! :lol:
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In defense of historical indicators, back when all those retirements were being decided and going on the polling was looking pretty bleak for the Dem. But the Tea Party came to the rescue, doing things like Primarying out Senator Lugar and getting Mourdock on the ballot in the general, and creating an environment that made things more difficult for Brown. Coupled with an amazing poor convention compared to the Dems, the last 3 months of the campaign the GOP managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the Senate.
 
MaggieD said:
I didn't see it coming either. I thought it was going to be a close race.
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It was. if those who had voted for McCain had shown up, Romney would have won

McCain was a C- candidate. Romney was an A. I don't know if it was idiot bible thumpers who had problems with Mormons or some McCain voters who didn't like Romney's wealth. I doubt any of that three million voted For Obama and a bunch of Obama 08 voters didn't vote for him this time
 
Thrilla said:
No, I actually have talent :lol:

the Senate screwed up my average...I blame Harry Reid.:lol:

seriously, since our inception, a very good indicator of which party will take the Houses is watching the level of retiring congresscritters.... Dems had more than the GOP this go round, but it seems that particular indicator didn't do me any justice this time.
**** you historically accurate indicators.. **** you! :lol:
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I thought the Dems would hold with around 50 or 51 max. Then GOP senate candidates couldn't stop talking about rape and that killed it for them in a few races.
 
poweRob said:
I thought the Dems would hold with around 50 or 51 max. Then GOP senate candidates couldn't stop talking about rape and that killed it for them in a few races.
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yeah.. them gotcha moments do getcha every now and then.. as a few GOPers now know.
 
poweRob said:
I thought the Dems would hold with around 50 or 51 max. Then GOP senate candidates couldn't stop talking about rape and that killed it for them in a few races.
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Have you seen those dog collars that incorporate a citronella sprayer that squirts whenever the dog barks? Republicans should be fitted with shock collars that deliver 50,000 volts any time the politican starts to say the word rape.
 
There are many reasons the polls confused things. The biggest reason the republicans were caught offguard is they cherry picked polls they wanted to believe and disregarded the true nature of polling.

That leads to the second problem. modern polling organizations seem to be trying to be more accurate by altering tried and true polling processes. First thing about a poll is it should select a random sample. That means that it cannot start fooling around by taking likely voters, or by trying to get results from their own ideas of what percentages of society is. those both introduce human bias and error into polls. A truly random poll with full response should most likely fall within society's demographic without adjustment. The ways to make polls more accurate are larger sample sets, and by getting responses from all the random choices.

One of the biggest fails that any person who has studied statistics sees in modern polls is methopd and lack of response. If you poll through the internet you only get response from people who use the internet. if you poll through the phone you only get response from people you can reach. If you only get 30 percent of people willing to respond your poll ignores a huge group of people who don't respond and they may have a prevailing attitude your poll completely neglects. What is the preference of the massive number of people who never respond to polls? It could be said that vocal republicans are much more likely to spoyut their opinions at a pollster than a subdued democrat. If i had to guess the tea party is probably very likely to respond while your standard voter who is not passionately political probably just dismisses polls.

Modern polling places are not scientific at all. They claim to be scientific so they can sell their polls, but nothing they do would stand up in a true scientific study. There is a science to using a small sample set to represent a larger whiole that would be too tedious or impossible to collect data on. No, that actual science does not fit into the quick paced world of political races. It involves standards, repetition, and time to correlate lots of data from multiple "polls." Polling can attempt to be as accurate as possible using certain things, but it will never be scientific proof. It can indicate areas of importance, but it is not an election that counts all voters.

Even the margin of error is based on a scientific principle regarding correlation, but that means the polls have to be conducted with the randomized accuracy and have a full set of responses which none of them have. Even scientific polls try to have the sample set be standardized. you cannot have a standard sample set based on opinions of a group that can have it's opionions changed by daily events. In other words pre-sandy polls become irrelevant because they measured a group whos opinions were not effected by sandy. You would need a number of polls conducted properly to get a correlated picture of the snapshot of american opinion. Once time progresses and opinions change then the pre-polling data becomes irrelevant in a snapshot of the present.

This is why polling fails, and this is why when you base your ideas on polls you are going to fail. The republicans based their confidence on polls when they should have used the polls to find weaknesses and not relied on the polls indicating a win for them.
 
AdamT said:
Have you seen those dog collars that incorporate a citronella sprayer that squirts whenever the dog barks? Republicans should be fitted with shock collars that deliver 50,000 volts any time the politican starts to say the word rape.
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Amusing idea. :lol:

I rather think we should ENCOURAGE them to opine on the topic.
 
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