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He doesn't claim to be fool proof.
this is something I noted in my original post on the issue.
He doesn't claim to be fool proof.
I read it the same as upsideguy at first but I believe Verax was posting in a sarcastic manner and his "pew" was not "Pew"
Let me point out again that Dr. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium gets far too little credit. He's been more accurate than Silver in the past, and this time he picked the national vote count to the decimal (51.1% - 48.9%). He was 10 for 10 in Senate races (one better than Silver), and he will have probably missed the EC by Florida, which he was correct in calling a virtual coin toss.
Wang should get plenty of credit. I mostly go to Nate Silver just because I prefer his writing and explanations. He is better at presenting in my opinion and explaining.
No. That was the average of all outcomes. If you look at the discrete outcome graph, down near the bottom of the forecast, there were 3 peaks. The second highest peak was 303 EV (where it is now) and the highest peak, at 20% likelihood, was 332 (where it will be if FL does indeed get called blue).Analyses from guys like Silver provide a set of probabilities, and if you look closely he was slightly off on the electoral vote count (He predicted 313-225 Obama).
Surprise surprise. Math and statistics work better than gut feelings and emotion at predicting elections. The polls were not wrong. They did not oversample Democrats.
Nate Silver-Led Statistics Men Crush Pundits in Election - Bloomberg
That's only because we haven't found a way to make math on TV interesting. But Nate Silver's blog accounted for, I think, 20% of the NYT's traffic yesterday and people were pretty interested in that story. In my opinion, I think mathematical and other academic thinking aren't popular because people just haven't applied enough creative energy to make it interesting.No one wants to watch math on TV.
You trying to say that Dick Morris didn't lead everyone in predictions?
Nate Silver was one of the many reasons I wasn't terribly worried about this election.
Is he going to be 100%? nope, but so far, in every single election he has predicted, and every state he has predicted, if he claims a confidence interval over 60%, he has 100% accuracy.