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Landslide election likely: 86.3% chance of Obama winning

The NY Times pollster says Obama wins by landslide? I do not believe the NY Times has ever said anything but the Democrat will win - possibly since Mondale, who they thought had a good chance.
 
kamikaze483 said:
They are using 2008 turnout in all of these polls.
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*SIGH*

For the 20th time, NO they are not using '08 turnout. The ONLY major polling firm that weights results by party ID is Rasmussen (which has a pro-Republican lean). The other major pollsters make no assumptions based on past turnout.
 
kamikaze483 said:
They are using 2008 turnout in all of these polls. A lot of them as much as Democrat plus 8. I think that is faulty. Secondly, I don't think Ohio will not be the deciding state. I picked Ohio to go blue. I'm thinking it will be PA and CO along with VA that will prove the 91% statistic to be worthless.
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i doubt PA will go romney, there's a pretty significant lead for the Oster there.
 
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