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Mitt Romney ahead by hair in.... Michegan Poll?

cpwill

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Probably an outlier. But still, instructive I think for those who believe that Romney is in trouble, or that Obama is any kind of a shoe-in.

Who are you most likely to vote for in the Presidential election - Democratic President Barack Obama, or Republican Nominee, Governor Mitt Romney, another candidate, or are you undecided?

Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.86%
President Barack Obama 46.24%
Another candidate 4.94%
Undecided 1.96%

...The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.24% with a confidence level of 95%.

Who is the other candidate that 5% of the populace has in mind?
 
Yeah, no.

RCP Average 10/26 - 11/3 Obama: 49.2 Romney:45.4 Obama +3.8

Even Rasmussen Reports has Obama in lead.
 
Yeah, no.

RCP Average 10/26 - 11/3 Obama: 49.2 Romney:45.4 Obama +3.8

Even Rasmussen Reports has Obama in lead.

Agreed, outlier. See: OP.
 
Though I'm also not really a fan of Real Clear Average and it's "all polls are created equal" approach.
 
Though I'm also not really a fan of Real Clear Average and it's "all polls are created equal" approach.

Yea it uses too many partisan polls (both sides, but mostly right wing).. but then again, all the other average polling is similar to RCP.
 
I think all the conventional polls now are just plain wrong. Using a metric from '08 to try and guess is going leave a lot of people scratching their heads....
 
Good ole nate looks at all polls and then predicts. Thats the best way to do it.
 
I think all the conventional polls now are just plain wrong. Using a metric from '08 to try and guess is going leave a lot of people scratching their heads....

Polls are useless - I did polling back in 2008 and in 2010...

Sure people have opinions, however their opinions only matter if they vote (if they even can or do).

Not many people I know in real life are enthusiastic about Obama - even former Obama supporters I know want him booted to the curb. Most of the Obama supporters I do know, know nothing about politics and pretty much support him for trendy reasons, but they wont vote.
 
Polls are useless - I did polling back in 2008 and in 2010...

Sure people have opinions, however their opinions only matter if they vote (if they even can or do).

Not many people I know in real life are enthusiastic about Obama - even former Obama supporters I know want him booted to the curb. Most of the Obama supporters I do know, know nothing about politics and pretty much support him for trendy reasons, but they wont vote.


Wow, and from the belly of the beast so to speak in Chicago no less....Good news.
 
The theme of election night will be:

How could the polls be so WRONG?




Logical, fiscally respondsible people have been waiting fours years for this election.

They WILL NOT stay home.
 
Probably an outlier. But still, instructive I think for those who believe that Romney is in trouble, or that Obama is any kind of a shoe-in.



Who is the other candidate that 5% of the populace has in mind?

It could end up being right, but it isn't the start of any trend. Baydoun-Foster has been one of the only pollsters to show Romney up so far this cycle, and the largest Obama lead they had was +3. And that was after the conventions when most other Michigan polls had Obama up double digits. Doesn't necessarily mean the poll's wrong, but I don't think it means there is any late breaking momentum in Michigan, or that this really affects the polling outlook there.
 
It could end up being right, but it isn't the start of any trend. Baydoun-Foster has been one of the only pollsters to show Romney up so far this cycle, and the largest Obama lead they had was +3. And that was after the conventions when most other Michigan polls had Obama up double digits. Doesn't necessarily mean the poll's wrong, but I don't think it means there is any late breaking momentum in Michigan, or that this really affects the polling outlook there.

In 2008, in my town, McCain/Palin yards signs were few.

In 2012, R2 signs are 5 to 1 for OBamBam.

In Michigan
 
In 2008, in my town, McCain/Palin yards signs were few.

In 2012, R2 signs are 5 to 1 for OBamBam.

In Michigan

And last time, my town had McCain/Palin signs lining the streets, but the only Romney/Ryan sign I've seen around here actually in someone's yard this year is the guy across the street. Obama's not going to win Missouri though.

I've noticed that anecdotal evidence doesn't usually have much to do with how an election turns out. It's just too small a sample size.
 
Probably an outlier. But still, instructive I think for those who believe that Romney is in trouble, or that Obama is any kind of a shoe-in.



Who is the other candidate that 5% of the populace has in mind?

My guess would be either the Libertarian or people writing in Johnny Appleseed :) (think the militia crowd and who would they support)
 
Exactly. Romney wins Pennsylvania, then Michigan, then the White House.

If he wins Pennsylvania and not OH it will come down to the allocation in NH and Nebraska IMO
 
Probably an outlier. But still, instructive I think for those who believe that Romney is in trouble, or that Obama is any kind of a shoe-in.

Who is the other candidate that 5% of the populace has in mind?

There probably isn't one candidate that has the 5% other...

But, there's a slight chance, the combination of third party tickets might make up near 5%...

Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Bud Roemer, Virgil Goode, Rocky Anderson, Peta Lindsay, Tom Hoeffling, Roseanne Barr, James Harris, Stewart Alexander, Tom Stevens, Merlin Miller, Andre Barnett, Jerry White, Jim Carlson, Jack Fellure, James Hedges, Steven Durham, Jim Deunsing, TJ Ohara...

Then there are two major candidates who aren't represented by parties... and aren't even running, that are going to get a lot of write-in support...

Ron Paul, and Rearden Steele the fictional Ayn Rand character, who is going to get a lot of the Occupy movement's vote...

5% does seem kind of high... but it could be that the people that the pollers were in contact with were well aware of 1 of these candidates, and very discontent with the major two parties...

I'm seeing a lot of facebook re-postings of the Ralph Nader hosted 3rd party debate, and people are excited to see what someone else has to say...

I also wonder if this is what all of the polls look like w/o having their samples tinkered with for expected turnout... a lot of people are displeased with the president and displeased with politics as usual at this point... something is brewing...

I wonder if a lot of the defection from the president is to occupy, jill stein, virgil goode, etc. and if 3rd party candidate aren't just a spoiler potential for Romney, but for Obama as well...
 
And last time, my town had McCain/Palin signs lining the streets, but the only Romney/Ryan sign I've seen around here actually in someone's yard this year is the guy across the street. Obama's not going to win Missouri though.

I've noticed that anecdotal evidence doesn't usually have much to do with how an election turns out. It's just too small a sample size.


Depending on how broadly you see it, it can....For instance...in '08 traveling the states I travel, I'd see Obama '08 stickers on cars everywhere. This cycle just a handful.
 
:doh Personally, I can't wait until its over because all of these polls are making my head hurt. :(
 
Depending on how broadly you see it, it can....For instance...in '08 traveling the states I travel, I'd see Obama '08 stickers on cars everywhere. This cycle just a handful.

in 08/10 i saw political signs/bumperstickers everywhere, for both parties, around my area in tampa. havent seen hardly any, and the signs i did see, for obama and romney alike were usually crumpled down/torn, like someone had attacked them. i think people are slowly getting sick of this mainstream garbage, full stop, no D or R needed.
 
Probably an outlier. But still, instructive I think for those who believe that Romney is in trouble, or that Obama is any kind of a shoe-in.



Who is the other candidate that 5% of the populace has in mind?

Can't imagine why people think Romney is in trouble...

fivethirtyeight-1003_1-blog480.png
 
"...comparisons in the chart are against the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll release." :)


There is a lot of room for play in this - a narrow wedge of voters has the ability to make it anything from a .01% election to a wide electoral swing. But the notion that this thing is somehow secure for either candidate is, I think, beyond wishful thinking.
 
"...comparisons in the chart are against the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll release." :)


There is a lot of room for play in this - a narrow wedge of voters has the ability to make it anything from a .01% election to a wide electoral swing. But the notion that this thing is somehow secure for either candidate is, I think, beyond wishful thinking.

Iam certainly not claiming secure, I am claiming likely. Romney is in trouble as his chances are small and getting smaller.
 
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