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Thread: Election too close to call as of Nov 4

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    Election too close to call as of Nov 4

    Obama-Romney: Too close to call

    9:23AM EST November 4. 2012 - Only two days left -- and, no, no one knows what's going to happen.

    President Obama and Mitt Romney are scrambling for last minute votes on Sunday and Monday in what could turn out to be a historically close presidential election -- maybe not a rerun of the 2000 George-W.-Bush-Al Gore battle, but very close nonetheless.

    How close, you ask?

    The average of polls compiled by the Real Clear Politics website gives Obama a lead of 0.2 percent in the popular vote -- 47.4% to 47.2^%. That would leave 5.4% undecided.

    In terms of the Electoral College -- which will decide the race -- Real Clear Politics now lists 11 states as toss-ups, totaling 146 electoral votes.

    Among presumably solid states, Obama leads Romney by only 201 electoral votes to 191, according to RCP -- it takes 270 to win the White House.

    If current polls are correct -- and of course many are disputed -- Obama would win the Electoral College by 290-248.

    But the Romney forces believe they are on the move in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, more than enough to reverse the result. And many of the states polls are within the margin of error.

    Hurricane Sandy further scrambled Election Day predictions. Will Obama benefit from a show of presidential leadership? Or will the damage prevent some people from voting, particularly in the suddenly close state of Pennsylvania?

    The polls are clear -- this race is too close to call.


    The candidates make their arguments on Sunday and Monday -- the voters have their final say on Tuesday.

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    Re: Election too close to call as of Nov 4

    Quote Originally Posted by Fisher View Post
    Obama-Romney: Too close to call

    9:23AM EST November 4. 2012 - Only two days left -- and, no, no one knows what's going to happen.

    President Obama and Mitt Romney are scrambling for last minute votes on Sunday and Monday in what could turn out to be a historically close presidential election -- maybe not a rerun of the 2000 George-W.-Bush-Al Gore battle, but very close nonetheless.

    How close, you ask?

    The average of polls compiled by the Real Clear Politics website gives Obama a lead of 0.2 percent in the popular vote -- 47.4% to 47.2^%. That would leave 5.4% undecided.

    In terms of the Electoral College -- which will decide the race -- Real Clear Politics now lists 11 states as toss-ups, totaling 146 electoral votes.

    Among presumably solid states, Obama leads Romney by only 201 electoral votes to 191, according to RCP -- it takes 270 to win the White House.

    If current polls are correct -- and of course many are disputed -- Obama would win the Electoral College by 290-248.

    But the Romney forces believe they are on the move in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, more than enough to reverse the result. And many of the states polls are within the margin of error.

    Hurricane Sandy further scrambled Election Day predictions. Will Obama benefit from a show of presidential leadership? Or will the damage prevent some people from voting, particularly in the suddenly close state of Pennsylvania?

    The polls are clear -- this race is too close to call.


    The candidates make their arguments on Sunday and Monday -- the voters have their final say on Tuesday.
    If Obama wins, I see a rocky road ahead. It's pretty obvious his win will not be a clear victory where we can say, "The American people have spoken." Of course, the same could be said of a Romney win...except the huge advantage an incumbent takes into the presidential race means that a Romney win would speak to the American people being sick and tired of the status quo.

    Hands tied in Congress again. No matter who wins. Good. The less they do, the safer we are.
    I'm reading a book on anti-gravity. I can't put it down.

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    Re: Election too close to call as of Nov 4

    As usual the MSM is pumping the story for all it's worth, but the truth is the election is not too close to call. Not even close. The most accurate predicter of the last two elections, Sam Wang of Princeton, rates Obama's chances of winning at 98.2% using one model and 99.9% using a slightly different model. FYI, Wang called the electoral vote count exactly in '04 and he missed by one EC vote in '08. IOW, he has been much better than 99% accurate in the last two elections.

    Nate Silver, who has also been quite accurate, presently puts Obama's chances at 85%. The betting lines make Obama a better than 3:1 favorite. Drew Linzer of Votamatic predicts a 332 to 206 Obama win.

    The only way anyone can seriously argue that this election is too close to call is if they ignore the state polls.
    "The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

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    Re: Election too close to call as of Nov 4

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamT View Post
    As usual the MSM is pumping the story for all it's worth, but the truth is the election is not too close to call. Not even close. The most accurate predicter of the last two elections, Sam Wang of Princeton, rates Obama's chances of winning at 98.2% using one model and 99.9% using a slightly different model. FYI, Wang called the electoral vote count exactly in '04 and he missed by one EC vote in '08. IOW, he has been much better than 99% accurate in the last two elections.

    Nate Silver, who has also been quite accurate, presently puts Obama's chances at 85%. The betting lines make Obama a better than 3:1 favorite. Drew Linzer of Votamatic predicts a 332 to 206 Obama win.

    The only way anyone can seriously argue that this election is too close to call is if they ignore the state polls.

    If Romney wins Ohio, he most likely wins the election.

    If he loses Ohio, then all he has to do is take Pennsylvania and Michigan.

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    Re: Election too close to call as of Nov 4

    Quote Originally Posted by johnny_rebson View Post
    If Romney wins Ohio, he most likely wins the election.

    If he loses Ohio, then all he has to do is take Pennsylvania and Michigan.
    It will be over before that. Virginia... if Obama wins here then it is over for Romney.

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    Re: Election too close to call as of Nov 4

    Quote Originally Posted by johnny_rebson View Post
    If Romney wins Ohio, he most likely wins the election.

    If he loses Ohio, then all he has to do is take Pennsylvania and Michigan.
    In fact, Obama is still favored to win even if he loses Ohio, although winning Ohio would increase Romney's chances substantially.
    "The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. ... It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion."

    -- Adam Smith

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    Re: Election too close to call as of Nov 4

    Just to point out, saying "too close to call" does not mean Romney will win. I am a clear Obama supporter and think he is the odds on favorite, but the USA today is correct, the election is too close to call. Romney could win. It isn't likely, but it is certainly possible.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

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    Re: Election too close to call as of Nov 4

    Hardly anyone has voted, of course it's too close to call!
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    Re: Election too close to call as of Nov 4

    Quote Originally Posted by MaggieD View Post
    If Obama wins, I see a rocky road ahead. It's pretty obvious his win will not be a clear victory where we can say, "The American people have spoken." Of course, the same could be said of a Romney win...except the huge advantage an incumbent takes into the presidential race means that a Romney win would speak to the American people being sick and tired of the status quo.

    Hands tied in Congress again. No matter who wins. Good. The less they do, the safer we are.
    A close Romney win will result in Obama deploying an army of lawyers.

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