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Election too close to call as of Nov 4

Fisher

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Obama-Romney: Too close to call

9:23AM EST November 4. 2012 - Only two days left -- and, no, no one knows what's going to happen.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are scrambling for last minute votes on Sunday and Monday in what could turn out to be a historically close presidential election -- maybe not a rerun of the 2000 George-W.-Bush-Al Gore battle, but very close nonetheless.

How close, you ask?

The average of polls compiled by the Real Clear Politics website gives Obama a lead of 0.2 percent in the popular vote -- 47.4% to 47.2^%. That would leave 5.4% undecided.

In terms of the Electoral College -- which will decide the race -- Real Clear Politics now lists 11 states as toss-ups, totaling 146 electoral votes.

Among presumably solid states, Obama leads Romney by only 201 electoral votes to 191, according to RCP -- it takes 270 to win the White House.

If current polls are correct -- and of course many are disputed -- Obama would win the Electoral College by 290-248.

But the Romney forces believe they are on the move in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, more than enough to reverse the result. And many of the states polls are within the margin of error.

Hurricane Sandy further scrambled Election Day predictions. Will Obama benefit from a show of presidential leadership? Or will the damage prevent some people from voting, particularly in the suddenly close state of Pennsylvania?

The polls are clear -- this race is too close to call.


The candidates make their arguments on Sunday and Monday -- the voters have their final say on Tuesday.
 
Obama-Romney: Too close to call

9:23AM EST November 4. 2012 - Only two days left -- and, no, no one knows what's going to happen.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are scrambling for last minute votes on Sunday and Monday in what could turn out to be a historically close presidential election -- maybe not a rerun of the 2000 George-W.-Bush-Al Gore battle, but very close nonetheless.

How close, you ask?

The average of polls compiled by the Real Clear Politics website gives Obama a lead of 0.2 percent in the popular vote -- 47.4% to 47.2^%. That would leave 5.4% undecided.

In terms of the Electoral College -- which will decide the race -- Real Clear Politics now lists 11 states as toss-ups, totaling 146 electoral votes.

Among presumably solid states, Obama leads Romney by only 201 electoral votes to 191, according to RCP -- it takes 270 to win the White House.

If current polls are correct -- and of course many are disputed -- Obama would win the Electoral College by 290-248.

But the Romney forces believe they are on the move in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, more than enough to reverse the result. And many of the states polls are within the margin of error.

Hurricane Sandy further scrambled Election Day predictions. Will Obama benefit from a show of presidential leadership? Or will the damage prevent some people from voting, particularly in the suddenly close state of Pennsylvania?

The polls are clear -- this race is too close to call.


The candidates make their arguments on Sunday and Monday -- the voters have their final say on Tuesday.

If Obama wins, I see a rocky road ahead. It's pretty obvious his win will not be a clear victory where we can say, "The American people have spoken." Of course, the same could be said of a Romney win...except the huge advantage an incumbent takes into the presidential race means that a Romney win would speak to the American people being sick and tired of the status quo.

Hands tied in Congress again. No matter who wins. Good. The less they do, the safer we are.
 
As usual the MSM is pumping the story for all it's worth, but the truth is the election is not too close to call. Not even close. The most accurate predicter of the last two elections, Sam Wang of Princeton, rates Obama's chances of winning at 98.2% using one model and 99.9% using a slightly different model. FYI, Wang called the electoral vote count exactly in '04 and he missed by one EC vote in '08. IOW, he has been much better than 99% accurate in the last two elections.

Nate Silver, who has also been quite accurate, presently puts Obama's chances at 85%. The betting lines make Obama a better than 3:1 favorite. Drew Linzer of Votamatic predicts a 332 to 206 Obama win.

The only way anyone can seriously argue that this election is too close to call is if they ignore the state polls.
 
As usual the MSM is pumping the story for all it's worth, but the truth is the election is not too close to call. Not even close. The most accurate predicter of the last two elections, Sam Wang of Princeton, rates Obama's chances of winning at 98.2% using one model and 99.9% using a slightly different model. FYI, Wang called the electoral vote count exactly in '04 and he missed by one EC vote in '08. IOW, he has been much better than 99% accurate in the last two elections.

Nate Silver, who has also been quite accurate, presently puts Obama's chances at 85%. The betting lines make Obama a better than 3:1 favorite. Drew Linzer of Votamatic predicts a 332 to 206 Obama win.

The only way anyone can seriously argue that this election is too close to call is if they ignore the state polls.


If Romney wins Ohio, he most likely wins the election.

If he loses Ohio, then all he has to do is take Pennsylvania and Michigan.
 
If Romney wins Ohio, he most likely wins the election.

If he loses Ohio, then all he has to do is take Pennsylvania and Michigan.

It will be over before that. Virginia... if Obama wins here then it is over for Romney.
 
If Romney wins Ohio, he most likely wins the election.

If he loses Ohio, then all he has to do is take Pennsylvania and Michigan.

In fact, Obama is still favored to win even if he loses Ohio, although winning Ohio would increase Romney's chances substantially.
 

Just to point out, saying "too close to call" does not mean Romney will win. I am a clear Obama supporter and think he is the odds on favorite, but the USA today is correct, the election is too close to call. Romney could win. It isn't likely, but it is certainly possible.
 
Hardly anyone has voted, of course it's too close to call!
 
If Obama wins, I see a rocky road ahead. It's pretty obvious his win will not be a clear victory where we can say, "The American people have spoken." Of course, the same could be said of a Romney win...except the huge advantage an incumbent takes into the presidential race means that a Romney win would speak to the American people being sick and tired of the status quo.

Hands tied in Congress again. No matter who wins. Good. The less they do, the safer we are.

A close Romney win will result in Obama deploying an army of lawyers.
 
Hardly anyone has voted, of course it's too close to call!

I cannot verify this claim, but I saw on TV Friday on one of the political shows that as much as 20 % may have already voted. Take that for what it is worth.
 
The most accurate predicter of the last two elections...

No disrespect but phrases like that always make me laugh. Most accurate according to who, & how is this measured?

With 300,000,000 people calling each election & only so many reasonable combinations Im sure there a loads of people who call every election right (many Im sure by luck), so how does someone determine the most accurate out of this motely crew of perfect callers?

Of course you cant, which is why these tags make me laugh.
 
No disrespect but phrases like that always make me laugh. Most accurate according to who, & how is this measured?

With 300,000,000 people calling each election & only so many reasonable combinations Im sure there a loads of people who call every election right (many Im sure by luck), so how does someone determine the most accurate out of this motely crew of perfect callers?

Of course you cant, which is why these tags make me laugh.


Err according to what he stated before the election happened, and what the actual election result was... stop being so anti-intellectual gezz..
 
If Obama wins, I see a rocky road ahead. It's pretty obvious his win will not be a clear victory where we can say, "The American people have spoken." Of course, the same could be said of a Romney win...except the huge advantage an incumbent takes into the presidential race means that a Romney win would speak to the American people being sick and tired of the status quo.

Hands tied in Congress again. No matter who wins. Good. The less they do, the safer we are.

The Senate race is more crucial than the presidential race IMO...

Obama cant push his agenda with a republican congress. What is Obama going to do if republicans take the congress? veto every bill they pass that lands on his desk like a dictator?
 

Did you actually read those? One was written in July 2008, one was written in September 2008, and the other is a Democratic Underground post from a week ago, where the subject line was an obvious error -- the poster wrote "McCain" but meant Romney, as his post makes clear.
 
Err according to what he stated before the election happened, and what the actual election result was... stop being so anti-intellectual gezz..

Yeah & as I pointed out many others did too. Surely even you can understand that point?

Calm down a little, it was just an observation regarding nonsensical hyped titles.
 
Here my deal. I am not buying into this Ohio swing states thing entirely. But if you look at when the various polls close in the states a very curios thing happens based on what I have seen.

As some point between 9:30 and 10:30 Romney is going to take the lead in EC votes. But this is a mirage. Its because his strongest base states have voted and we have not gotten to the blue west coast.

But I will bet when this happens the right is going to be cracking out the bubbly.

EC

Obama 290
Romney 248
 
A close Romney win will result in Obama deploying an army of lawyers.

And a close Obama win will have Romney graciously bowing out? :lamo
 
And a close Obama win will have Romney graciously bowing out? :lamo

That's more probable than not.

'08 was a close Obama victory and McCain conceded.
 
No disrespect but phrases like that always make me laugh. Most accurate according to who, & how is this measured?

With 300,000,000 people calling each election & only so many reasonable combinations Im sure there a loads of people who call every election right (many Im sure by luck), so how does someone determine the most accurate out of this motely crew of perfect callers?

Of course you cant, which is why these tags make me laugh.

Okay, if you think there's someone else who has been more accurate please post a link showing that someone called both the '04 and '08 elections 100% accurately. Because Wang missed a combined total of ONE electoral vote in the two elections.
 
'08 was a close Obama victory and McCain conceded.

On what planet?

Obama had 365 electoral votes and 10 million more popular votes... that is not close at all....
 
Okay, if you think there's someone else who has been more accurate please post a link showing that someone called both the '04 and '08 elections 100% accurately. Because Wang missed a combined total of ONE electoral vote in the two elections.

Betting that electoral vote was in Nebraska.. Obama won one there out of the blue in 2008.
 
Did you actually read those? One was written in July 2008, one was written in September 2008, and the other is a Democratic Underground post from a week ago, where the subject line was an obvious error -- the poster wrote "McCain" but meant Romney, as his post makes clear.
My point was that it feels the same as four years ago. The articles could have been written last week or 4 years ago - they are the same rhetoric. The media is making it interesting with a 'Romney' surge/trend/hype - just like they did for McCain 4 years ago. If they were truthful, there would be much less people voting and less people tuning in for the ad dollars.

Reality is that Romney hasn't a snowball's chance.
 
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