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AFL-CIO's Podhorzer: Obama near '08 level of Ohio union support

areafiftyone

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In a memo that readers should take the time to peruse in full, AFL-CIO political director Michael Podhorzer outlines the labor giant's view of how Barack Obama can win Ohio, and reveals that polling for the labor super PAC Workers' Voice shows Obama matching his '08 support from labor there:

Ohio’s ethnic composition has not changed much in recent years (its Hispanic population is only 3%). Both of these facts mean President Obama’s fate in Ohio, and quite possibly the fate of his presidency, will be determined by working class voters, union and non-union.

It’s worth noting that our internal polling shows President Obama with 57% of the union vote, approaching the 59% of the vote he received from union voters in 2008 according to the exit polls. Without the union vote, President Obama would be trailing badly in Ohio. Our internal tracking shows that those non-union voters contacted by Working America or Workers’ voice, who hear the same economic message are favoring the President, doing much to explain why support for President Obama among blue collar voters is much stronger in Ohio than in other parts of the nation.

Early in the 2012 election cycle, some political prognosticators argued this year’s presidential race would be a demographic showdown, a showdown Obama could win by focusing on upscale voters in states like North Carolina at the expense of working class voters in states like Ohio. Despite these predictions, with only days left in the campaign, Ohio is the make or break state of the campaign …

Obama can win Ohio’s 18 electoral votes as long as he and his allies keep Romney’s margin among white voters to 10% or less, which they’ve managed to do up to this point by highlighting the auto industry's recovery, the loss of U.S. jobs to China, Romney’s endorsement of Senate Bill 5, and Romney’s record at Bain Capital. If Obama’s current support levels hold, he can win the state by at least 2% or 109,000 votes, similar to George W. Bush’s 2004 margin of 2% or 118,000 votes.

continue reading here: AFL-CIO's Podhorzer: Obama near '08 level of Ohio union support - POLITICO.com
 
From the look of things (even the polling) Obama will win Ohio. Maybe by not much but he will win.
 
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