IndepCentristMA
Well-known member
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2012
- Messages
- 2,110
- Reaction score
- 669
- Location
- Boston, MA
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Centrist
One thing is obvious... Numerous individuals and collective groups are extremely biased towards one party or another.
Many of those groups and individuals are in positions which they know they can attempt to influence the election from.
We have already seen this with the unemployment numbers in August, September, and we are bound to see it with October's job numbers as well.
We are now seeing it with stock market pricing. Last week numerous large companies announced awful Q3 numbers, which predicated a massive drop in the markets, with the DOW dropping 250 pts two Fridays ago, then dropping 250 last week, to drop 500pts in about a week's time off poor Q3 earnings reports... Yet, now we are seeing GM (with no ulterior motive, of course) coming out and announcing it's reports as "better than expected" after being in steady decline for 4 straight quarters... but since their decline this time wasn't as bad as expected (given that September is the best time for auto sales) they announce it positively... and suddenly the market rebounds...
Look at the UAW, now suddenly making a claim that Romney profited from the auto-bailout... They didn't make this claim at the time... they've made it with 1-week until the presidency, no doubt out of political motivation...
I saw this on the weekend talk shows, with arguments by Democratic pundits saying, well since the DOW dropped so much in the past week, it can only improve which will look good for the president going into the election. I saw Republican ones saying, since we have seen such poor Q3 economic reports, and because there was a steep drop in unemployment for September, that October should tick back up and look bad for the president… Both of those types of arguments make me sick.
These kinds of reports cheapen us as a people... We are better than reacting to flash stories by an awful sensationalist 24-hr entertainment based news media... That doesn't get to the real point of what's going on...
To these late arguments one way or the other, my statement is:
Be wary of late numbers; measure the 4 years as a whole... Look at the big picture!
That means the 2009 crisis, the trillions spent to recover, the 2010 recovery that occurred, it's peak in 2011 (with Q3 2011 being the only quarter under Obama to see growth of 4%), the slowing and lengthy stagnation since then with growth slowing to lower than 2% and lower than inflation, and now the numbers at the end of an election cycle which to many from casual observer to professionals and experts appear altered in some way and are being extorted for personal gain by both ends...
Here's where we can sift through the mess and look at the bigger picture...
The thing to keep in mind, most decent presidents keep unemployment at an average of 5.5% (even GWB had an average unemployment of 5.4%)... the ones who have been voted out of office have unemployment rates upwards of 7%... This president took over with unemployment rising, at about 8%, it went up to 10% right away within a year, then has slowly crept back down over the last 3 years, with all the money he spent, to about 8% (regardless of what minute tenth of a percent the numbers from the last 3 months say).
You are going to have to decide whether slow growth and stagnation, and unemployment which is slowly creeping below 8% after over 3 years, with $5.4T added to the debt in attempts to jumpstart the economy is good enough...
There is also the other aspect of this economy, the exorbitant prices of everything, foods from milk, to corn, to bread, etc. fuels from gasoline, to home heating oil, etc. are all exceedingly high... for essential goods as that...
We have a president bent on putting in restrictive regulations on energy companies and small businesses... and it's being felt... those companies are setting out the truth, that they are going to have to lay people off in order to cover the cost increases from ObamaCare... The others say the restrictions of Obama and his Secretary of Energy, Chu, are bankrupting them and making them close plants...
This isn't about 1 month's reports... it's about the general trend and pattern...
The pattern is prices are increasing, wages are going down, the size of the workforce is shrinking, and unemployment is slowly going down, but only as a result of people dropping out of the workforce...
The new hires the president always celebrates are equally matched by new people entering eligibility to the workforce, and dwarfed by the number of people who are discouraged from looking for work by about six to one monthly...
Regardless of the tick of one tenth of a percent, the workforce participation rate has made a steady and unprecedented drop of about 2% under this president, and continues to drop at that pace. Regardless of a tick of one tenth of a percent unemployment is about 8%, which is unacceptably high (even without considering the lofty U5 and U6 numbers). The price of gasoline, regardless of 1 week’s changes, is on course to be the highest average ever for a president, and is going to be over $3.50/gal on Election Day.
Something needs to “Change”, and it has to be at the top.
Many of those groups and individuals are in positions which they know they can attempt to influence the election from.
We have already seen this with the unemployment numbers in August, September, and we are bound to see it with October's job numbers as well.
We are now seeing it with stock market pricing. Last week numerous large companies announced awful Q3 numbers, which predicated a massive drop in the markets, with the DOW dropping 250 pts two Fridays ago, then dropping 250 last week, to drop 500pts in about a week's time off poor Q3 earnings reports... Yet, now we are seeing GM (with no ulterior motive, of course) coming out and announcing it's reports as "better than expected" after being in steady decline for 4 straight quarters... but since their decline this time wasn't as bad as expected (given that September is the best time for auto sales) they announce it positively... and suddenly the market rebounds...
Look at the UAW, now suddenly making a claim that Romney profited from the auto-bailout... They didn't make this claim at the time... they've made it with 1-week until the presidency, no doubt out of political motivation...
I saw this on the weekend talk shows, with arguments by Democratic pundits saying, well since the DOW dropped so much in the past week, it can only improve which will look good for the president going into the election. I saw Republican ones saying, since we have seen such poor Q3 economic reports, and because there was a steep drop in unemployment for September, that October should tick back up and look bad for the president… Both of those types of arguments make me sick.
These kinds of reports cheapen us as a people... We are better than reacting to flash stories by an awful sensationalist 24-hr entertainment based news media... That doesn't get to the real point of what's going on...
To these late arguments one way or the other, my statement is:
Be wary of late numbers; measure the 4 years as a whole... Look at the big picture!
That means the 2009 crisis, the trillions spent to recover, the 2010 recovery that occurred, it's peak in 2011 (with Q3 2011 being the only quarter under Obama to see growth of 4%), the slowing and lengthy stagnation since then with growth slowing to lower than 2% and lower than inflation, and now the numbers at the end of an election cycle which to many from casual observer to professionals and experts appear altered in some way and are being extorted for personal gain by both ends...
Here's where we can sift through the mess and look at the bigger picture...
The thing to keep in mind, most decent presidents keep unemployment at an average of 5.5% (even GWB had an average unemployment of 5.4%)... the ones who have been voted out of office have unemployment rates upwards of 7%... This president took over with unemployment rising, at about 8%, it went up to 10% right away within a year, then has slowly crept back down over the last 3 years, with all the money he spent, to about 8% (regardless of what minute tenth of a percent the numbers from the last 3 months say).
You are going to have to decide whether slow growth and stagnation, and unemployment which is slowly creeping below 8% after over 3 years, with $5.4T added to the debt in attempts to jumpstart the economy is good enough...
There is also the other aspect of this economy, the exorbitant prices of everything, foods from milk, to corn, to bread, etc. fuels from gasoline, to home heating oil, etc. are all exceedingly high... for essential goods as that...
We have a president bent on putting in restrictive regulations on energy companies and small businesses... and it's being felt... those companies are setting out the truth, that they are going to have to lay people off in order to cover the cost increases from ObamaCare... The others say the restrictions of Obama and his Secretary of Energy, Chu, are bankrupting them and making them close plants...
This isn't about 1 month's reports... it's about the general trend and pattern...
The pattern is prices are increasing, wages are going down, the size of the workforce is shrinking, and unemployment is slowly going down, but only as a result of people dropping out of the workforce...
The new hires the president always celebrates are equally matched by new people entering eligibility to the workforce, and dwarfed by the number of people who are discouraged from looking for work by about six to one monthly...
Regardless of the tick of one tenth of a percent, the workforce participation rate has made a steady and unprecedented drop of about 2% under this president, and continues to drop at that pace. Regardless of a tick of one tenth of a percent unemployment is about 8%, which is unacceptably high (even without considering the lofty U5 and U6 numbers). The price of gasoline, regardless of 1 week’s changes, is on course to be the highest average ever for a president, and is going to be over $3.50/gal on Election Day.
Something needs to “Change”, and it has to be at the top.
