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Two more crack-pot polls released today.

Grim17

Grim17

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Crack-pot poll #1

What happens when you conduct a state poll in Ohio,and sample 9% more democrats than republicans in the survey, and sample 11% fewer Independents than turned out for the election in 2008?

What you get is a PPP poll showing Obama with a 5 point lead over Romney in Ohio... Or as I like to call it... A friking joke.

********************************************************************

Crack-pot poll #2

This one is a survey of likely voters from National Journal and is listed in the RCP average today. It shows Obama up nationally by 5%, 50 to 45 over Romney... What's wrong with this poll, other than it's small sample size and 4.4% margin of error, is written in the story about it here, where it says:

In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time)
​

You got that? They think even a higher percentage of democrats over republicans will vote in this election, compared to 2008... I guess they just ignored the survey Gallup did of more than 9000 voters, which not only didn't show that this election would likely have a 8 point Dem advantage, but projects that Republicans will have a higher turnout this election than the Democrats will.


Just when I thought the polling organizations had started to move toward reality, we get this crap.
 
It's a poll of likely voters, not registered voters. Likely voters don't necessarily follow party lines.

Your silly "libral media" meme is exposed. And it's what's crack pot.
 
head of joaquin said:
It's a poll of likely voters, not registered voters. Likely voters don't necessarily follow party lines.

Your silly "libral media" meme is exposed. And it's what's crack pot.
Click to expand...

My comparisans of Ohio are based on WHO VOTED in the 2008 election in the state... I would say that fits perfectly with the "likely voters" catagory... Wouldn't you?

Are you suggesting that the democrats are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and that polling 11% fewer Independents is a true representation of this years electorate?
 
Grim17 said:
My comparisans of Ohio are based on WHO VOTED in the 2008 election in the state... I would say that fits perfectly with the "likely voters" catagory... Wouldn't you?

Are you suggesting that the democrats are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and that polling 11% fewer Independents is a true representation of this years electorate?
Click to expand...

So you've determined who is a likely voter from your armchair. Got it.

I think I'll stick with professional pollsters.
 
head of joaquin said:
So you've determined who is a likely voter from your armchair. Got it.

I think I'll stick with professional pollsters.
Click to expand...

Gallup's surveys indicate an 11 point swing between their 2008 prediction and their prediction this election. Whether it is actually that large is anyone's guess, but there's no denying there is going to be a very noticable swing toward republicns this election compared to last.

They are not a product of my "armchair".
 
Grim17 said:
Gallup's surveys indicate an 11 point swing between their 2008 prediction and their prediction this election. Whether it is actually that large is anyone's guess, but there's no denying there is going to be a very noticable swing toward republicns this election compared to last.

They are not a product of my "armchair".
Click to expand...

Change the subject! Nice strategy for somebody losing the argument.

Now, back to the topic. The polls at issue are "likely voters" not registered voters, not voters by parties. Have you analysed likely voters for Ohio from your armchair also?
 
head of joaquin said:
Change the subject! Nice strategy for somebody losing the argument.

Now, back to the topic. The polls at issue are "likely voters" not registered voters, not voters by parties. Have you analysed likely voters for Ohio from your armchair also?
Click to expand...

You and your truth. Don't you know if the poll favors obama it is crack pot, and if it favoprs romney even when every other poll in the universe does not it is clearly the truth from god himself. Not that i care much for any poll, but you are arguing with a person who would pass out about a minute after he read obama likes breathing.
 
head of joaquin said:
Change the subject! Nice strategy for somebody losing the argument.
Click to expand...

What?

You accused me of concocting numbers and I did no such thing. I base my estimate on Gallup's surveys, which make Democrats +8 or +9 over Republicans this election as those polls indicate, highly unlikely to say the least.
 
tererun said:
You and your truth. Don't you know if the poll favors obama it is crack pot, and if it favoprs romney even when every other poll in the universe does not it is clearly the truth from god himself. Not that i care much for any poll, but you are arguing with a person who would pass out about a minute after he read obama likes breathing.
Click to expand...

I hear you, but I like to watch him squirm
 
Grim17 said:
What?

You accused me of concocting numbers and I did no such thing. I base my estimate on Gallup's surveys, which make Democrats +8 or +9 over Republicans this election as those polls indicate, highly unlikely to say the least.
Click to expand...

Pssst: focus. Likely voters. Today. Ohio.

Have you run an analysis on that and what were your criteria? If you can't answer that, you can't criticize the polls at issue.
 
Grim17 said:
Crack-pot poll #1

What happens when you conduct a state poll in Ohio,and sample 9% more democrats than republicans in the survey, and sample 11% fewer Independents than turned out for the election in 2008?

What you get is a PPP poll showing Obama with a 5 point lead over Romney in Ohio... Or as I like to call it... A friking joke.

********************************************************************

Crack-pot poll #2

This one is a survey of likely voters from National Journal and is listed in the RCP average today. It shows Obama up nationally by 5%, 50 to 45 over Romney... What's wrong with this poll, other than it's small sample size and 4.4% margin of error, is written in the story about it here, where it says:

In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time)
​

You got that? They think even a higher percentage of democrats over republicans will vote in this election, compared to 2008... I guess they just ignored the survey Gallup did of more than 9000 voters, which not only didn't show that this election would likely have a 8 point Dem advantage, but projects that Republicans will have a higher turnout this election than the Democrats will.


Just when I thought the polling organizations had started to move toward reality, we get this crap.
Click to expand...



I watched an interview with a polling person, might have been Rasmussen, they all run together, who said that they did not weight the polls to reflect anything and tried to just get a random sample.

The actual election is not random but self selecting. Those who vote actually choose to do so. This is not a random sample.

So, like a call in vote or an internet poll in which only those who choose to vote self select the participants, the actual election is a self selected sample and may be a less representative sample of the whole population than is a poll.

However, elections only poll those who care enough to vote. Apathy carries a cost.
 
tererun said:
You and your truth. Don't you know if the poll favors obama it is crack pot, and if it favoprs romney even when every other poll in the universe does not it is clearly the truth from god himself. Not that i care much for any poll, but you are arguing with a person who would pass out about a minute after he read obama likes breathing.
Click to expand...

It's simple... It comes down to their demographic sample.

If the sample is democrats +5 or less, you won't hear a word out of me... But when you have polls that are sampling an even higher percentage of democrats over republicans this election, than the 7% difference in the 2008 election, that is just dishonest. It makes no logical sense.

Think about it...

Now if insulting and mis-characterizing me is more important to you than honest debate, that doesn't speak very well for you or your political beliefs. No problem though... To each his own.
 
tererun said:
You and your truth. Don't you know if the poll favors obama it is crack pot, and if it favoprs romney even when every other poll in the universe does not it is clearly the truth from god himself. Not that i care much for any poll, but you are arguing with a person who would pass out about a minute after he read obama likes breathing.
Click to expand...

If the poll doesn't agree with you - It's Wrong!
 
Grim17 said:
It's simple... It comes down to their demographic sample.

If the sample is democrats +5 or less, you won't hear a word out of me... But when you have polls that are sampling an even higher percentage of democrats over republicans this election, than the 7% difference in the 2008 election, that is just dishonest. It makes no logical sense.

If insulting and mis-characterizing me is more important to you than honest debate, that doesn't speak very well for you or your political beliefs. No problem though... To each his own.
Click to expand...

Jesus man it's LIKELY voters, not a cross section of democrats and republicans. You can argue with the concept, you can argue with the criteria (which you didn't bother to look up), but you can't claim that likely voters should be demographically equalized for party.

You apparently don't get the concept. If for whatever cockamammy reason, likely voters in a particular election are all Green party members and Democrats and Republicans for whatever reason aren't likely to vote, why would a LIKELY VOTER poll include Democrats and Republicans.

Get with the program, dude.
 
Likely voters models tend to run closer to an even sample between democrats and republicans and every likely voter model has shown that. So when you wind up with a dem plus 9 sample, which is greater than the 2008 turnout, you must be assigning a heavy dem weighting to get the result you want---essentially a push poll.

To toss out a +9 dem poll at this point....its suspect.
 
code1211 said:
I watched an interview with a polling person, might have been Rasmussen, they all run together, who said that they did not weight the polls to reflect anything and tried to just get a random sample.

The actual election is not random but self selecting. Those who vote actually choose to do so. This is not a random sample.

So, like a call in vote or an internet poll in which only those who choose to vote self select the participants, the actual election is a self selected sample and may be a less representative sample of the whole population than is a poll.

However, elections only poll those who care enough to vote. Apathy carries a cost.
Click to expand...

I don't have a whole lot of confidence in the polls anyway, but when they skew things to this degree it's just wrong.
 
Grim17 said:
I don't have a whole lot of confidence in the polls anyway, but when they skew things to this degree it's just wrong.
Click to expand...

What's scewed? The LIKELY VOTERS in Ohio are the demographic polled, not equal numbers of democrats and republicans.

At this point, it's just willful ignorance on your part.
 
head of joaquin said:
Jesus man it's LIKELY voters, not a cross section of democrats and republicans. You can argue with the concept, you can argue with the criteria (which you didn't bother to look up), but you can't claim that likely voters should be demographically equalized for party.

You apparently don't get the concept. If for whatever cockamammy reason, likely voters in a particular election are all Green party members and Democrats and Republicans for whatever reason aren't likely to vote, why would a LIKELY VOTER poll include Democrats and Republicans.

Get with the program, dude.
Click to expand...

If their weighting was greater than 1.1 Dem...the program you want us to get with must be from a Kabuki theatre.
 
OpportunityCost said:
Likely voters models tend to run closer to an even sample between democrats and republicans and every likely voter model has shown that. So when you wind up with a dem plus 9 sample, which is greater than the 2008 turnout, you must be assigning a heavy dem weighting to get the result you want---essentially a push poll.

To toss out a +9 dem poll at this point....its suspect.
Click to expand...


"Tend" is meaningless here. The pollster's criteria led them to the demographic of likely voters. That resulted in more dems the pubs. Nothing wrong with that if the criteria are accurate. I have no idea if they are or aren't, but neither does the armchair pollster and his OP.
 
Grim17 said:
It's simple... It comes down to their demographic sample.

If the sample is democrats +5 or less, you won't hear a word out of me... But when you have polls that are sampling an even higher percentage of democrats over republicans this election, than the 7% difference in the 2008 election, that is just dishonest. It makes no logical sense.

Think about it...

Now if insulting and mis-characterizing me is more important to you than honest debate, that doesn't speak very well for you or your political beliefs. No problem though... To each his own.
Click to expand...

I understand statistics, and i understand polling. What i do not understand is how when gallup shows a completely skewed result that shows romney way out in the lead republicans regard that as the truth, and do not think that perhaps either coincidence or poor polling resulted in a false result. However, when another poll falls withing the margin of error of every other poll it is obviously false. I don't even understand why you are trying to justify this like it was some sort of actual election. polls are statistical guesses based on a small data set. The only actual poll like thing that will matter comes next week and is called an election. You argue this like it actually means something other than asking a bunch of people their opinion.
 
OpportunityCost said:
If their weighting was greater than 1.1 Dem...the program you want us to get with must be from a Kabuki theatre.
Click to expand...

So you've analyzed their criteria for accuracy or is this just your psychic abilities speaking?

In an election in which likely voters are more democrat than republican, a likely voter poll will have more democrats than republicans, by definition. Argue with the criteria, but first find out what it is. Your feelings aren't enough.
 
tererun said:
I understand statistics, and i understand polling. What i do not understand is how when gallup shows a completely skewed result that shows romney way out in the lead republicans regard that as the truth, and do not think that perhaps either coincidence or poor polling resulted in a false result. However, when another poll falls withing the margin of error of every other poll it is obviously false. I don't even understand why you are trying to justify this like it was some sort of actual election. polls are statistical guesses based on a small data set. The only actual poll like thing that will matter comes next week and is called an election. You argue this like it actually means something other than asking a bunch of people their opinion.
Click to expand...

In what world is Ohio polling at +9 dem? Margin of error my ass.
 
head of joaquin said:
So you've analyzed their criteria for accuracy or is this just your psychic abilities speaking?

In an election in which likely voters are more democrat than republican, a likely voter poll will have more democrats than republicans, by definition. Argue with the criteria, but first find out what it is. Your feelings aren't enough.
Click to expand...

Im saying IF. I dont claim to know. What I claim is this is what it appears to be: an outlier poll.
 
head of joaquin said:
What's scewed? The LIKELY VOTERS in Ohio are the demographic polled, not equal numbers of democrats and republicans.

At this point, it's just willful ignorance on your part.
Click to expand...

Polls are weighted to try and represent an accurate reflection of the electorate. In other words, if they sample too many of a certain demographic, they toss some of that group out. When a poll is weighted that lopsided, it just boggles the mind.
 
rocket88 said:
If the poll doesn't agree with you - It's Wrong!
Click to expand...

See, you got it. This is why in this election i only regard polls on the ed show to be factual representations of the opinions in america. According to those polls the republicans are only going to get 2 or 3 percent of the vote anyway.
 
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