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Some see GOP voting tsunami coming

Erod

Erod

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Some see GOP voting tsunami coming | WashingtonExaminer.com

According to a GOP analysis of early voting and absentee ballot requests provided to Secrets, the Democrats are turning out their most reliable, or so-called "high propensity voters" than Republicans, leaving fewer for Election Day. The GOP is pushing weaker supporters to vote early, expecting high enthusiasm to drive their regular supporters to the polls next week.

"Democrats are cannibalizing their high-propensity voters in advance of election day to get stories that they are winning," said a GOP analyst. "But in effect they are stealing from Peter, or Election Day, to pay Paul, or early voting."

For example, in Ohio, the Democrats have turned out 43 percent of the most loyal supporters to vote, compared to just 27 percent of the GOP. In Iowa, the difference is 43 percent to 29 percent.

"Republicans will have more reliable voters available on Election Day and are spending our efforts turning out low propensity voters in the absentee and early voting periods," added the analysis.

Even with the difference in turnout of loyal supporters, Gallup finds that among early voters, Romney is beating Obama 52 percent to 45 percent, though some state totals show an Obama advantage. Plus in states like North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa, the GOP has seen huge requests for last-minute absentee ballots this month.
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This is the gut feeling I have.

Republicans are going to vote at an incredibly high percentage of their registered base, while the Democrats have already shot their wad to an extent.

And still, even having pushed hard early, the Dems by many accounts are trailing ALREADY. I expect long, long lines full of Republicans next Tuesday.

If true, Romney could get to 55+ just on the basis of a huge turnout on one side, and a somewhat pedestrian showing from a largely unenthused Obama base.
 
Erod said:
Some see GOP voting tsunami coming | WashingtonExaminer.com



This is the gut feeling I have.

Republicans are going to vote at an incredibly high percentage of their registered base, while the Democrats have already shot their wad to an extent.

And still, even having pushed hard early, the Dems by many accounts are trailing ALREADY. I expect long, long lines full of Republicans next Tuesday.

If true, Romney could get to 55+ just on the basis of a huge turnout on one side, and a somewhat pedestrian showing from a largely unenthused Obama base.
Click to expand...

IMO, those who are so optimistic about Romney are forgetting about the power of the incumbency. That advantage is HUGE. Obama hasn't made the huge gaffs other one-term presidents have -- I would be surprised (pleasantly) if he didn't win. The only thing I take heart in is that I thought Walker would lose the recall election in Wisconsin. ;)
 
I think Obama's made plenty of gaffes.

It's very hard to unseat an incumbent, but not so much when the incumbent is a disaster.
 
Erod said:
Some see GOP voting tsunami coming | WashingtonExaminer.com



This is the gut feeling I have.

Republicans are going to vote at an incredibly high percentage of their registered base, while the Democrats have already shot their wad to an extent.

And still, even having pushed hard early, the Dems by many accounts are trailing ALREADY. I expect long, long lines full of Republicans next Tuesday.

If true, Romney could get to 55+ just on the basis of a huge turnout on one side, and a somewhat pedestrian showing from a largely unenthused Obama base.
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keep feeling that because you have until next wednesday. It is just another straw to grasp onto. maybe all the democrats have already voted and despite being numerically larger in blue states the republicans might somehow win. It seems pretty valid when you are desperate. Maybe all the rain will keep the democrats stranded and all the northeast blue states will become red because of republicans with boats? It could happen, right?
 
MaggieD said:
IMO, those who are so optimistic about Romney are forgetting about the power of the incumbency. That advantage is HUGE. Obama hasn't made the huge gaffs other one-term presidents have -- I would be surprised (pleasantly) if he didn't win. The only thing I take heart in is that I thought Walker would lose the recall election in Wisconsin. ;)
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Perhaps but the democrats may be under-estimating the power of a hurricane blasting its way through the bulk of the blue states and blue areas of swing states. This storm couldn't have taken a worse path for the democrats.
 
Fisher said:
Perhaps but the democrats may be under-estimating the power of a hurricane blasting its way through the bulk of the blue states and blue areas of swing states. This storm couldn't have taken a worse path for the democrats.
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It's also an opportunity for him to explain that Romney wants to eliminate parts of the government that act as safety nets for disasters. If he handles this right, this could indeed swing a lot of those swing states in Obama's direction.
 
How can the Democrats "shoot their wad" by voting early when it's just the first of many that individuals will cast for Obama?
 
imagep said:
It's also an opportunity for him to explain that Romney wants to eliminate parts of the government that act as safety nets for disasters. If he handles this right, this could indeed swing a lot of those swing states in Obama's direction.
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They were already going to vote for Obama en masse which is why there is no upside for the President. It could depress turnout or get them royally PO'd at the President. People without power will not be watching MSNBC to see the Romney comments anyway and having been through a week without power, I can tell you it turns into cycles of apathy and anger at everybody pretty quick.
 
Incompetent trumps incumbent.
 
imagep said:
It's also an opportunity for him to explain that Romney wants to eliminate parts of the government that act as safety nets for disasters. If he handles this right, this could indeed swing a lot of those swing states in Obama's direction.
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Well, you and Lawrence o'Donnell were already going to vote for Obama so keep dreamin. No one is swinging Obamas way because of this. Best thing you can do at this point is watch less MSNBC and get used to life in a post-Obama America.
 
Fletch said:
Well, you and Lawrence o'Donnell were already going to vote for Obama so keep dreamin. No one is swinging Obamas way because of this. Best thing you can do at this point is watch less MSNBC and get used to life in a post-Obama America.
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Actually, I am not an Obama supporter. Didn't vote for him the first time, will not be voting for him this time.

But good try.
 
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