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Ohio Demographics Point to a Romney Victory

Your Star said:
Stop it with those facts Red, they just get in the way!
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As mentioned, and to be clear, most of that is not facts, but is relatively unbiased mathematical projections based upon the known facts.
 
You on the left keep taking Ohio for granted and your going to be in for a big surprise come election day.
 
MaggieD said:
I'm thinking Ohio's investment in coal will be the secret to success...if Romney does take the state.

There are 90 active coal mining operations in Ohio in 15 eastern Ohio counties. Patriot Coal Mine shut down this year with the owners saying they could not comply with Obama's new requirements on emissions.

There are about 23,000 coal mining jobs in Ohio. Who do you think they, their friends, their families will be voting for this cycle?
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Funny you should mention this. I was just reading an article that originally appeared at Politico.com that is now being re-circulated in other media outlets, such as this from Syracuse.com, "Romney's Road to Ohio Victory":

3. Go for the coal

Romney's campaign is betting that the electorate will look more like 2004 than 2008 -- so it's natural that the goal would be to shoot for Bush's margins of eight years ago.

To that end, Bush turned out rural Ohio voters in a big way -- but with the help of an evangelical Christian connection that Romney doesn't organically have. Bush also had the help of an anti-gay marriage ballot initiative that helped boost the numbers among his conservative base.

In its place has come the focus on the coal industry in southeast Ohio, where the Obama administration's policies are often described as the "war on coal."

A drive through the eastern area of the state with the radio on last week left little doubt as to the battle taking place there -- the Obama campaign, combating the coal narrative, is up with radio ads featuring clips of the president talking about his energy initiatives in a positive way.

It's in those regions where the Democrats believe that messaging about Romney as a plutocrat and a job killer have been effective in raising skepticism about him with voters who may be traditional Democrats but are not going to back Obama, and could end up not voting.

The Obama campaign has been using former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland intensely in that area, one where he beat current GOP Gov. John Kasich in their 2010 race (Strickland lost statewide).
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Bottom Line: It's a scare tactic employeed by Team Romney that the Obama Administration and the EPA are against the coal industry. I think folks should read the linked article below before jumping to such conclusions.

Source: Christian Science Monitor, "War on Coal? Why Obama might not be industry's worst enemy" (Hint: The real threat is natural gas, not the EPA)
 
Navy Pride said:
You on the left keep taking Ohio for granted and your going to be in for a big surprise come election day.
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Who is taking it for granted. It is a battleground state, and going to be a battle. I won't count Ohio a win for us until the votes are all counted and any recounts done. Any more straw men?
 
winston53660 said:
I love it when you boast and brag:mrgreen:
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both sides have such posters. I have seen at least a dozen dems who say Obama already has it won. I expect lots of overdoses and self inflicted gunshot wounds come ten days from now and I suspect more will come from the left if Mitt wins rather than the reverse. Democrats tend to be far more dependent on government that we are
 
TurtleDude said:
the polling data is mainly based on the turnout in 2008 and ignores 2010. Ohio is going to be close. right now its trending towards Romney
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Obama has a 2.4 advantage right now on average. Bush had a 2.1 in 04 at this point.
 
TurtleDude said:
both sides have such posters. I have seen at least a dozen dems who say Obama already has it won. I expect lots of overdoses and self inflicted gunshot wounds come ten days from now and I suspect more will come from the left if Mitt wins rather than the reverse. Democrats tend to be far more dependent on government that we are
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You think there is some kind of scenario where Romney can win...? Seriously? You think he's going to take every single toss up state AND two states off Obama that are solid in the blue? Bwuahah, good luck with that, I hope you don't pick your investments cuz your judgement is not sound.

In Obama's next term he is going to jack up taxes to 45% on people like you, get you paying at least part of your fair share. I can't wait until I get my new and improved Obama checks, gonna buy my wife a brand new Mini-van for our welfare babies.
 
zimmer said:
Yes it is an editorial, but the reasoning is pretty good. Did you read it?

ROTFLOL... I've linked your source once, but the NYT is what exactly?

The best all around source is RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

"likely to carry" isn't exactly the most confident choice of words.
Momentum has shifted, Obama looks a shell of 08, petty, unpresidential... and has no plan, just as he has had no budgets for four years.

The next week will not be kind, for he will get hammered on two front; economy and Benghazi.
Undecideds tend to go for the challenger during the late stages.

Don't forget 2010.

Ohio is in play.
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Nate Silver is a very, very credible election prognosticator. He is primarily a statistician and draws on other polls. He pretty much nailed the 2008 and 2010 elections. Pay attention to him.

FiveThirtyEight - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Ohio is in play. but the odds are against the Regressives.
 
Verax said:
You think there is some kind of scenario where Romney can win...? Seriously? You think he's going to take every single toss up state AND two states off Obama that are solid in the blue? Bwuahah, good luck with that, I hope you don't pick your investments cuz your judgement is not sound.

In Obama's next term he is going to jack up taxes to 45% on people like you, get you paying at least part of your fair share. I can't wait until I get my new and improved Obama checks, gonna buy my wife a brand new Mini-van for our welfare babies.
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your post seems to track this sort of thinking:mrgreen:

 
Harshaw said:
Obama needs Ohio to win, too.
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As a matter of fact he doesn't, though it would obviously make his path easier. It isn't even an absolute must-win for Romney, though his path would be very difficult without it.

And just to put things in perspective, Obama stands a better chance of taking Florida than Romney does of taking Ohio.
 
AdamT said:
As a matter of fact he doesn't, though it would obviously make his path easier. It isn't even an absolute must-win for Romney, though his path would be very difficult without it.

And just to put things in perspective, Obama stands a better chance of taking Florida than Romney does of taking Ohio.
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Nah, Romney is over 50% in FL, Obama is below 50% in Ohio.
 
j-mac said:
Nah, Romney is over 50% in FL, Obama is below 50% in Ohio.
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No, Romney is up 1.3% in Florida. Obama is up 1.9% in Ohio. According to RCP.
 
AdamT said:
No, Romney is up 1.3% in Florida. Obama is up 1.9% in Ohio. According to RCP.
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Demo absentee voting ballot requests are down, while Repub requests are up. I think you are fooling yourself.
 
j-mac said:
Demo absentee voting ballot requests are down, while Repub requests are up. I think you are fooling yourself.
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Obama is crushing Romney in early voting. I just don't want you to get your hopes up too much. You're man is going to lose.

And btw, there are FAR more Democratic absentee voters in Florida this year relative to 2008. In '08 it was +18% for Republicans. This year it's about +5%.
 
AdamT said:
Obama is crushing Romney in early voting. I just don't want you to get your hopes up too much. You're man is going to lose.
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the numbers suggest that you are cannibalizing your election day vote, while republicans have more first time voters in this area...Now couple that with the new energy fields found in the NE part of the state that Obama will kill, thus eliminating many of those jobs, and I think it you that will be disappointed on Nov 7.
 
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