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RCP Electoral Map

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I think I'm only going to take notice of Anagram's prediction as he's the only person to have predicted against his own lean.
 
I think Obama will take Wi, Ia, Mi, Ill, Mn and Ohio. Indiana goes Romney no big surprise. Pa is a toss up. The surprise IMHO is Colorado which has a pretty good AE industry going and alot of Federal workers. I think it will go Obama. Florida is another toss up and I think of the "swing states" it could go either way. The issue here would be the retired crowd who are overwhelminly for Obama as seen after Ryan's little flight of fancy at the AARP convention. Also Romney insulting Isreal when he was there did not help him in Florida either. But FLA has a strong Rep base and so it will be interesting.
The rest of the country will go pretty much as planned. I also see Va as an interesting place.

I personally don't give a crap about polls or phone surveys not that they are biased (some are some aren't) but just because they are limited in scope.
 
Fisher said:
I gave Obama Nevada but I still believe that Romney could have a chance there talking about immigration. He just needs to downplay the kicking people out part and play up the more work Visa's part.
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Nevada is a tough one to call... it's always kinda tough

big union state.. so Obama gets a jump
big Mormon state.. so Romney gets a jump
hit extraordinarily hard by the economy, and is really really slow in recovery.. I think Romney gets a jump there, but who knows.

Obama has visited quite a bit, so all that special attention tells me he's afraid of losing it.
 
I stand by my past predictions. If it is too close come 1 November, Obama signs an executive order granting all illegal immigrants immediate citizenship status complete with voting rights. The election is held with the appeals process in place. Obama wins. Several months later the appeal is upheld but the election stands. One way or the other, Obama wins reelection. The senate becomes a push and remains under Reids leadership, meaning it remains a complete joke. The house tightens but Boehner remains in charge with a smaller house majority. Four more years of the last 4 years.
 
Thrilla said:
Nevada is a tough one to call... it's always kinda tough

big union state.. so Obama gets a jump
big Mormon state.. so Romney gets a jump
hit extraordinarily hard by the economy, and is really really slow in recovery.. I think Romney gets a jump there, but who knows.

Obama has visited quite a bit, so all that special attention tells me he's afraid of losing it.
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I thought Nevada would be a good pickup opportunity for Romney too. Obama is still leading in the polls there though, and they underestimated the Democratic vote by a pretty big margin in 2008 and 2010. Also the 100,000 voter registration edge in 2008 has only closed to 90,000 this year, and I'm not sure that's enough.

Iowa though, is a state that's tough to call. The polls have a history of overestimating the Democratic vote there, and there's a small minority population. Out of the states Obama is ahead in the polls, I think it's the most likely to vote for Romney.
 
I was looking at the older RCP electoral maps and holy cow! There were some huge landslides back in the 80s, huh? I think it's interesting how that hasn't happened recently.
 
Josie said:
I was looking at the older RCP electoral maps and holy cow! There were some huge landslides back in the 80s, huh? I think it's interesting how that hasn't happened recently.
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We've become more polarized. There used to be 30-35 states that could go either way in a close election, and a candidate who won by a lot could take almost all of them. Now we only have 5-10 real swing states, with all the other ones being very red or very blue.
 
I thought it was interesting how California went red several times in the past. I thought that never happened.
 
VanceMack said:
I stand by my past predictions. If it is too close come 1 November, Obama signs an executive order granting all illegal immigrants immediate citizenship status complete with voting rights. The election is held with the appeals process in place. Obama wins. Several months later the appeal is upheld but the election stands. One way or the other, Obama wins reelection. The senate becomes a push and remains under Reids leadership, meaning it remains a complete joke. The house tightens but Boehner remains in charge with a smaller house majority. Four more years of the last 4 years.
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Even if they were given the right to vote they would be past the registration deadline.
 
KWA said:
Even if they were given the right to vote they would be past the registration deadline.
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Not with instant voter registration. Executive order, baby.
 
Moderator's Warning:
Stickied. Keep those maps and projections coming.
 
I guess I had better defend my title from 4 years ago :boxerheh lol . Will post a map up after the last debate, too tight to call some states now. Fascinating race btw.
 
I will wait until about Oct 23 or something. After the debate, and reaction from it. I also don't want to jump the gun when the polls and other things are so screwy.
 
Obama - 268
Romney - 270

I have Obama winning OH and Romney still winning ( I know, unlikely) but I just dont see Romney winning OH. With all the momentum he has garnered through the debates he still has never led in the polls in OH.

However, I do feel his momentum is growing and I hold a lot of faith in the notion, that if an incumbent is tied in the majority of polls heading into election day, the challenger usually wins the race.

In the swing states, I have Romney carrying NV, IA, WI, VA, FL
Obama carries CO, OH, PA, NH.

Here is the map: 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College
 
Obama 277 Romney 261.

I believe Romney will win CO, NH, VA, and FL (in addition to taking IN and NC from Obama).

Obama will win IA, WI, OH, and NV.

I see very very limited paths for Romney without OH.
 
swingvoter said:
Obama 277 Romney 261.

I believe Romney will win CO, NH, VA, and FL (in addition to taking IN and NC from Obama).

Obama will win IA, WI, OH, and NV.

I see very very limited paths for Romney without OH.
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Is it that implausible that he wins Nevada and Iowa? Most polls show him and the President within 0.5% and 2% of each other, with one or two showing Romney ahead in Nevada (I thought, maybe I'm wrong). If he wins those states and Obama wins Ohio, Romney would win the election, and if Obama picks up NH it is a 269 to 269 tie.
 
Sherman123 said:
Is it that implausible that he wins Nevada and Iowa? Most polls show him and the President within 0.5% and 2% of each other, with one or two showing Romney ahead in Nevada (I thought, maybe I'm wrong).
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You are.. Nevada has had Obama ahead for many months. The hispanic vote I am guessing.

Iowa is always a wierd one, most say Obama easily and then a Dem leaning poll comes out and gives Romney by 1.

If he wins those states and Obama wins Ohio, Romney would win the election, and if Obama picks up NH it is a 269 to 269 tie.
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Unlikely, and dont forget Nebraska. Nebraska is not winner takes all, and last time Obama actually won one electoral vote there and has a chance to do the same yet again.

Also look at Virginia. Romney has been ahead there for the most part, BUT the result there will depend on turnout near Washington. Virginia could easily flip to Obama.

Problem is for Romney, is based on the polls, he has to flip far more states and defend more states where it is within margin of error.. when compared to Obama.

Romney has to "keep" Florida, Virginia and Colorado, while having to flip Ohio and New Hampshire. It is possible of course.

Obama has to "keep" Ohio and not need to flip any state. Win Ohio for him and he is almost guaranteed 4 more years. But on top of that, he is very competitive in Colorado, Virginia (depends on turnout around Washington), New Hampshire and even in Florida.. even a state like Arizona could flip depending on turnout among hispanics.

No doubt that the evening will be interesting to watch, but I doubt that there will be a split 269-269 very very much.
 
American said:
It pleases me to no end to know that a communist is rooting for Obama. I want everyone to take note and remember that. We need to burn that into everyone's memory, that communists and socialists, always support the Democratic candidates. They want us to be like Europe, and ultimately like Russia.
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It pleases me to know end that despite numerous times beforehand when we've interacted on this forum, where my lean clearly stated "Liberal", you completely ignore that and instead do what conservatives do best: Run around screaming about Communists and try to expand your fear-driven agenda.

We've sparred before American. A number of times. Tell me, did all of that vanish from your memory when your eyes gazed upon the word "communist"? Did it ever strike you, that, perhaps, like several other members, was just changing my lean around for fun? Or did your innate terror at the prospect of someone who shares a different view from you immediately take hold?

It seems to be consistent with you. Immediately assume the worst possible solution. that's actually quite funny. I don't think the religious right is trying to turn us into a theocracy, but as you've demonstrated, that must be it, because it's the worst possible solution!

Congratulations American, I've never seen you fail so much in a single post.
 
American said:
It pleases me to no end to know that a communist is rooting for Obama. I want everyone to take note and remember that. We need to burn that into everyone's memory, that communists and socialists, always support the Democratic candidates. They want us to be like Europe, and ultimately like Russia.
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Jredbaron96 said:
It pleases me to know end that despite numerous times beforehand when we've interacted on this forum, where my lean clearly stated "Liberal", you completely ignore that and instead do what conservatives do best: Run around screaming about Communists and try to expand your fear-driven agenda.

We've sparred before American. A number of times. Tell me, did all of that vanish from your memory when your eyes gazed upon the word "communist"? Did it ever strike you, that, perhaps, like several other members, was just changing my lean around for fun? Or did your innate terror at the prospect of someone who shares a different view from you immediately take hold?

It seems to be consistent with you. Immediately assume the worst possible solution. that's actually quite funny. I don't think the religious right is trying to turn us into a theocracy, but as you've demonstrated, that must be it, because it's the worst possible solution!

Congratulations American, I've never seen you fail so much in a single post.
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Moderator's Warning:
This thread is abut predicting the electoral college map. Take your little fued elsewhere and stick to the topic or I will happily remove you from this thread.
 
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