Electoral math

Since I haven't seen anyone post a thread with electoral math yet, I thought it would be helpful to create one. At this point in the campaign cycle, we can be pretty confident what the "swing states" are going to be on Election Day. There are somewhat fewer this year than there normally are...seven by my count: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. We can quibble about whether Wisconsin or North Carolina are "swing states," but I'm not counting them even though the polls are still relatively close in those states. This is because they are fairly irrelevant to the electoral math; if Obama loses Wisconsin or Romney loses North Carolina, it will most likely be because they've already lost all the "true" swing states...thus making the electoral math a moot point anyway.

This means that Obama starts out with 247 electoral votes, to Romney's 206. Each candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency outright, although if there is a 269-269 tie, the House of Representatives will pick the president. Since it's controlled by Republicans, it's fair to say that Romney needs 269 electoral votes to win, whereas Obama needs 270.

So what combination of swing states lead to each candidate winning? There are surprisingly few combinations that actually matter...only four by my count. I'm going to go down the list of ways that Obama can win, since his path to victory is a little bit clearer than Romney's. But one can do the same exercise for Romney...it's just the opposite of everything below.

- Florida. If Obama wins Florida's 29 EVs, he wins the election. Period.

- Ohio +1. If Obama wins Ohio's 18 EVs, he needs to also win one of the smaller swing states. Ohio plus New Hampshire won't quite do it...but Ohio plus any of the other smaller swing states will.

- Virginia +2. If Obama wins Virginia's 13 EVs, he needs to win any two of the four smaller swing states.

- All 4 small states. If Obama fails to carry Florida, Ohio, or Virginia, he can still eke out a victory by winning all four of the small swing states (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire).


Romney's path to victory is essentially just the opposite: make sure that none of these scenarios happen. Which (if any) of these paths to victory do you think is Obama's most likely way to win? How likely do you think it is that Romney will deny him these paths?

I see Obama's likely path as winning the Hispanic heavy Southwest where turnout was excellent in 2008 and still pretty good even in 2010. Also he would have to keep Ohio, where most polls still show him with the lead. That would lead to a map like this:



Meanwhile, I think Romney's best chance to stop him is taking Ohio. If he can take Ohio, then Obama would have to take Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Colorado, assuming losing Ohio means he wouldn't take Virginia or Florida. Failing that, Romney would have to make Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan competitive. All three of them are on the fringe of swing states, but clearly leaning Obama, especially the last two. I still do think Obama's the favorite in the race, despite the national polls, but Romney is in a much better position than three weeks ago.

Looking at that map to bad we don't count square miles instead of something meaningless like people.

azgreg said:

Looking at that map to bad we don't count square miles instead of something meaningless like people.

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I'd settle for states with NASCAR tracks getting five thirds of a vote per person.

Of the four paths I outlined, I think the "Ohio +1" path is Obama's most likely route to victory. He's currently ahead by about 2.4 points in Ohio, in the RCP polling average. If he can win that, then he'll also need a smaller state. Iowa and Nevada seem like the easiest wins for him...he currently leads by 3.3 in Iowa and 3.0 in Nevada. This path is by no means a certainty...if he loses a couple points in the polls between now and Election Day (or if the polls are simply overestimating his standing in Ohio), then this path to victory could become unfeasible very quickly. Nevertheless, I think this is Obama's most likely course of victory.

Romney's path to victory is much tougher IMO. If he continues to poll as strongly as he has been the last couple weeks, he'll likely win Florida. He also seems quite competitive in Virginia and Colorado, where the race is essentially a toss-up at this point. If he can deny Obama the "Florida" route, the "Virginia +2" route, and the "4 small states" route, then he'll probably be in decent shape. However, Ohio is very close to a must-win for Romney...and he's currently trailing in the polls. In my view, the electoral math makes it very very difficult for Romney to win the election unless he starts doing better in Ohio. That's not to say that it's impossible, but it still seems to be an uphill battle for Romney despite his improved numbers in the last couple weeks.

Kandahar said:

Of the four paths I outlined, I think the "Ohio +1" path is Obama's most likely route to victory. He's currently ahead by about 2.4 points in Ohio, in the RCP polling average. If he can win that, then he'll also need a smaller state. Iowa and Nevada seem like the easiest wins for him...he currently leads by 3.3 in Iowa and 3.0 in Nevada. This path is by no means a certainty...if he loses a couple points in the polls between now and Election Day (or if the polls are simply overestimating his standing in Ohio), then this path to victory could become unfeasible very quickly. Nevertheless, I think this is Obama's most likely course of victory.

Romney's path to victory is much tougher IMO. If he continues to poll as strongly as he has been the last couple weeks, he'll likely win Florida. He also seems quite competitive in Virginia and Colorado, where the race is essentially a toss-up at this point. If he can deny Obama the "Florida" route, the "Virginia +2" route, and the "4 small states" route, then he'll probably be in decent shape. However, Ohio is very close to a must-win for Romney...and he's currently trailing in the polls. In my view, the electoral math makes it very very difficult for Romney to win the election unless he starts doing better in Ohio. That's not to say that it's impossible, but it still seems to be an uphill battle for Romney despite his improved numbers in the last couple weeks.

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That's pretty much how I see it. I think Obama will take Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

I read an article this morning that said both sides were now fearing the possible 269 tie.

Fisher said:

I read an article this morning that said both sides were now fearing the possible 269 tie.

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Which would result in a Romney/Biden presidency.

AdamT said:

That's pretty much how I see it. I think Obama will take Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

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Have to agree, Ohio will the THE state this time around. I think Obama will have trouble in Florida, with less support in the SE part the state, which needs to be big democrat to carry the state.Could be a wave election if Romney can put Pa. in play.

Fisher said:

I read an article this morning that said both sides were now fearing the possible 269 tie.

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I doubt it. Reporters like to play up that possibility every election, but it hasn't happened in nearly 200 years. The only feasible way there could be a 269-269 tie is if Ohio and New Hampshire voted for Obama, and all the other swing states voted for Romney. It's a feasible combination, but it's exceedingly unlikely that that single combination out of all the possible combinations will be the electoral result. In any case, even a 269-269 tie wouldn't cause any major crisis or create any uncertainty. The House of Representatives would pick the president, and they'd pick Romney.

Kandahar said:

I doubt it. Reporters like to play up that possibility every election, but it hasn't happened in nearly 200 years. The only feasible way there could be a 269-269 tie is if Ohio and New Hampshire voted for Obama, and all the other swing states voted for Romney. It's a feasible combination, but it's exceedingly unlikely that that single combination out of all the possible combinations will be the electoral result. In any case, even a 269-269 tie wouldn't cause any major crisis or create any uncertainty. The House of Representatives would pick the president, and they'd pick Romney.

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A selected President will be a crippled President no matter which one it was IMO. The more likely scenario is we will have an EC winner and a popular vote winner that are different.

California is the real reason that Democratics ever have a shot at the presidency. If they didn't that California locked up every four years, they'd never see the White House.

Pennsylvania a swing state, too?

Poll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania | WashingtonExaminer.com

If that's true, Michigan and Wisconsin might not be far behind, and you can forget Ohio going blue.

American said:

California is the real reason that Democratics ever have a shot at the presidency. If they didn't that California locked up every four years, they'd never see the White House.

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Which employs liberal policies in pure, test-tube-like fashion, and is the most financially upside-down state in the union.

How appropriate.

American said:

California is the real reason that Democratics ever have a shot at the presidency. If they didn't that California locked up every four years, they'd never see the White House.

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Well, you could say the same thing about lots of states. For both candidates.

American said:

California is the real reason that Democratics ever have a shot at the presidency. If they didn't that California locked up every four years, they'd never see the White House.

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You do know it is because of the population in the state...
They don't just randomly give electoral votes to states.

there is some talk of Maine coming into play not the whole state but they are one of two states that separate the electoral votes by candidate

Fruityfact said:

You do know it is because of the population in the state...
They don't just randomly give electoral votes to states.

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Dont' forget about winner take all laws.

Erod said:

Pennsylvania a swing state, too?

Poll shows Romney leading in blue Pennsylvania | WashingtonExaminer.com

If that's true, Michigan and Wisconsin might not be far behind, and you can forget Ohio going blue.

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I would put Pennsylvania in the same category that I put Wisconsin: It's theoretically possible that Romney could win it if he was having a terrific night...but it's not very relevant to the electoral math, because if he wins it, then it will be on the wave of a landslide. Therefore I don't really consider it a swing state.

I cannot see Romney winning OH, but I can see him winning PA.

American said:

Dont' forget about winner take all laws.

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Yea...remember in 2000 when that republican won the popular vote but....oh wait?
You aren't making a very good case

I have heard that not all states require by law their electors to cast according to the winners of the state but most do, so there still could be a floor fight at the EC if it is a tie.

Fisher said:

A selected President will be a crippled President no matter which one it was IMO. The more likely scenario is we will have an EC winner and a popular vote winner that are different.

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Which would be sweet karmic justice if Obama got the EC and Romney got the popular vote. An inverse of 2000. Then perhaps the right wing would finally be on board with killing the EC as we should.

American said:

California is the real reason that Democratics ever have a shot at the presidency. If they didn't that California locked up every four years, they'd never see the White House.

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Same thing with the GOP and Texas.

Kandahar said:

I would put Pennsylvania in the same category that I put Wisconsin: It's theoretically possible that Romney could win it if he was having a terrific night...but it's not very relevant to the electoral math, because if he wins it, then it will be on the wave of a landslide. Therefore I don't really consider it a swing state.

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Fair enough. I'm sensing a landslide because I'm not seeing much enthusiasm from Democrats, and that rock-star vote Obama got four years ago won't show up in force this time.

This has a Reagan-Carter feel to it.