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Electoral math

It's probably at 60% for the President's reelection, Shewolf. I thought I saw that somewhere recently.
 
Isn't there some kind of poll that keeps the percentage of likelihood of winning the Electoral College? I heard some analysts say it's very possible the winning could win the electoral college, but not the popular vote.

The FiveThiryEight model, which considers national and state polls plus economic factors gives Obama a 67% chance of winning the electoral college and a 50% chance of winning the popular vote (versus 49% for Romney).
 
2004? yeah well this is 2008...

I suppose in 2004 there was no housing crisis despite Bush saying there was...

There sure is a lot of passion from the left in this forum for four more years of Obama and they are in good company, Chavez, Castro, Putin: Four more years! | Times 247

Just goes to show the true colors of many Obama supporters who either want something for what they consider to be free or really do want to fundamentally change this country into a European socialist economy where there is equal outcome vs. equal opportunity.

RCL Electoral Map today has Romney winning and quite frankly I do not believe it will be as close as the media and the left would have us believe. Obama doesn't deserve four more years with the record he has generated. He inherited a mess or so liberals claim but apparently most liberals have no concept of leadership and give him a pass for the so called recovery

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map
 
There sure is a lot of passion from the left in this forum for four more years of Obama and they are in good company, Chavez, Castro, Putin: Four more years! | Times 247

Just goes to show the true colors of many Obama supporters who either want something for what they consider to be free or really do want to fundamentally change this country into a European socialist economy where there is equal outcome vs. equal opportunity.

RCL Electoral Map today has Romney winning and quite frankly I do not believe it will be as close as the media and the left would have us believe. Obama doesn't deserve four more years with the record he has generated. He inherited a mess or so liberals claim but apparently most liberals have no concept of leadership and give him a pass for the so called recovery

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Click on the states where it is labeled "toss-up" and you'll see a more complicated picture. Likewise, they also have an option to remove the "toss-up" portion, where they give their ruling. Obama comes out ahead 277-261.
 
California is the real reason that Democratics ever have a shot at the presidency. If they didn't that California locked up every four years, they'd never see the White House.

Now there's an economy to be proud of. I agree this will not be a Republican state until the entire state is bankrupt and they figure out that socialism doesn't work once you run out of other peoples money.
 
Click on the states where it is labeled "toss-up" and you'll see a more complicated picture. Likewise, they also have an option to remove the "toss-up" portion, where they give their ruling. Obama comes out ahead 277-261.

Yes, and if you click on the states you will see a lot of old polls as well which is just like the Realclear average calculating the total using those old poll numbers. I put more faith in Rasmussen and Gallup polls and both show Romney with the lead and trending upwards. I just don't understand the support for Obama and no one here has been very persuasive in their support for Obama as the results don't warrant four more years.
 
Now there's an economy to be proud of. I agree this will not be a Republican state until the entire state is bankrupt and they figure out that socialism doesn't work once you run out of other peoples money.

California right now seems to be counting on Obama using taxpayer money to bailout the state. If Romney wins California is in deep trouble
 
Click on the states where it is labeled "toss-up" and you'll see a more complicated picture. Likewise, they also have an option to remove the "toss-up" portion, where they give their ruling. Obama comes out ahead 277-261.

According to the polling data it is too close to call. Here is another estimate:

EC1.JPG

2012 Electoral College Scoreboard
 
The FiveThiryEight model, which considers national and state polls plus economic factors gives Obama a 67% chance of winning the electoral college and a 50% chance of winning the popular vote (versus 49% for Romney).

I found the site... thanks.... it nearly matches what Intratrade says
 
According to the polling data it is too close to call. Here is another estimate:

View attachment 67136580

2012 Electoral College Scoreboard

Here is an economic model which has been accurate the last 8 Presidential elections and since most elections end up being based upon pocketbook issues, I believe is more accurate than most of the other polls. This has Romney with 330 electoral votes.

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder
 
Here is an economic model which has been accurate the last 8 Presidential elections and since most elections end up being based upon pocketbook issues, I believe is more accurate than most of the other polls. This has Romney with 330 electoral votes.

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

That would be GREAT for the country if that actually comes true. 330 or 270, whatever works.
 



Then again... This guy might get his ass served by other means:


GOP Voter Registration Scandal Widens, Prosecutors File Criminal Charges
A Virginia official is busted for tossing voter forms. Turns out he works for the national party, too.

The man arrested today was 23-year-old Colin Small of Phoenixville, Pa. As it turns out, he does not only work for the Virginia Republican Party. According to an online profile, he appears to be working for the Republican National Committee and, prior to that, served as an Intern for Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Pa., in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Joseph Tanfani at the Los Angeles Times is reporting that Small was “working as a supervisor as part of a registration operation in eight swing states financed by the Republican National Committee.”

He was first hired, says Tanfani, by Strategic Allied Consulting, the firm owned by the disgraced GOP operative and paid Mitt Romney political consultant Nathan Sproul. Even before this year’s registration fraud scandal, which began with Strategic in Florida, Sproul’s companies have long been accused of, though never charged with, destroying Democratic voter registrations in election after election and state after state, going back to at least 2004. Despite that, Sproul was hired by the Bush/Cheney campaign in 2004, by the McCain/Palin Campaign in 2008, and by Romney during the Republican Primary cycle.​
 
Then again... This guy might get his ass served by other means:


GOP Voter Registration Scandal Widens, Prosecutors File Criminal Charges
A Virginia official is busted for tossing voter forms. Turns out he works for the national party, too.

The man arrested today was 23-year-old Colin Small of Phoenixville, Pa. As it turns out, he does not only work for the Virginia Republican Party. According to an online profile, he appears to be working for the Republican National Committee and, prior to that, served as an Intern for Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Pa., in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Joseph Tanfani at the Los Angeles Times is reporting that Small was “working as a supervisor as part of a registration operation in eight swing states financed by the Republican National Committee.”

He was first hired, says Tanfani, by Strategic Allied Consulting, the firm owned by the disgraced GOP operative and paid Mitt Romney political consultant Nathan Sproul. Even before this year’s registration fraud scandal, which began with Strategic in Florida, Sproul’s companies have long been accused of, though never charged with, destroying Democratic voter registrations in election after election and state after state, going back to at least 2004. Despite that, Sproul was hired by the Bush/Cheney campaign in 2004, by the McCain/Palin Campaign in 2008, and by Romney during the Republican Primary cycle.​

Looks like he has a career and maybe a management position at ACORN
 
Looks like he has a career and maybe a management position at ACORN

Seeing as how ACORN is defunct, I doubt it. But this ACORN news must be phenomenal news for you. No longer will you have to worry about this guy showing up at polls and voting in Ohio or Virginia. Because you know...voter registration fraud (payroll fraud against ACORN) is the exact same thing as voter fraud. :roll:

Donald_Duck_-_The_Spirit_of_'43_(cropped_version).jpg
 
Seeing as how ACORN is defunct, I doubt it. But this ACORN news must be phenomenal news for you. No longer will you have to worry about this guy showing up at polls and voting in Ohio or Virginia. Because you know...voter registration fraud (payroll fraud against ACORN) is the exact same thing as voter fraud. :roll:

View attachment 67136582

So tell me when you register to vote do you tell what party you are affiliated with? Yes, I know ACORN is defunct now but am impressed that you actually posted a picture of one of the people they registered.
 
So tell me when you register to vote do you tell what party you are affiliated with? Yes, I know ACORN is defunct now but am impressed that you actually posted a picture of one of the people they registered.

Let me fix your ignorance of the topic... When you get registration forms, you are required by law to return those forms... even those that are forged. This guy threw them in the trash. ACORN returned them as required by law and they themselves flagged the ones THEY thought were fraudulent. Then the GOP jumped in and accused them of fraud. To be more precise, ACORN was legit and this GOP operative is flat out guilty of exactly what you guys were accusing ACORN of. But I digress, continue with your ignorance if you wish.
 
Let me fix your ignorance of the topic... When you get registration forms, you are required by law to return those forms... even those that are forged. This guy threw them in the trash. ACORN returned them as required by law and they themselves flagged the ones THEY thought were fraudulent. Then the GOP jumped in and accused them of fraud. To be more precise, ACORN was legit and this GOP operative is flat out guilty of exactly what you guys were accusing ACORN of. But I digress, continue with your ignorance if you wish.

Great, did Mickey Mouse vote in the last election?
 
Oh stop. Polls are quite a bit of "everything" that we use to figure matters out. The silliest thing to say is that "the only poll that matters is on (election day)."

In that case, no Presidential Candidate has ever been at 50% or higher in the Gallup Poll this far along in October and lost the race. Go Romney!
 
Let me fix your ignorance of the topic... When you get registration forms, you are required by law to return those forms... even those that are forged. This guy threw them in the trash. ACORN returned them as required by law and they themselves flagged the ones THEY thought were fraudulent. Then the GOP jumped in and accused them of fraud. To be more precise, ACORN was legit and this GOP operative is flat out guilty of exactly what you guys were accusing ACORN of. But I digress, continue with your ignorance if you wish.

Did you miss those ACORN videotapes that surfaced all over the News Media? Are you defending this organization?
 
Did you miss those ACORN videotapes that surfaced all over the News Media? Are you defending this organization?

Yes... I saw the highly edited O'Keefe garbage... so did the investigators who watched the extended versions before they edited to make it look damning... just before they threw it all out for it's deceptive and misleading garbage.

And yes, I am defending them.
 
Edited or Not, I cannot say. I think the fact remains that its obvious that they were using their Government power to help lawbreakers and other such vile scum escape justice, and even benefit from taxpayers.
 
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