Romney in the lead for first time in RCP

For the first time in this campaign, Romney has pulled to a slight lead in the RealClearPolitics Genreal Election Polls Average. The RCP Average currently sits at 48.0% for Romney to 47.3% for Obama, giving Romney a slight 0.7% lead. This score is based off of two polls conducted after the debate (Rassmussen: Tie / Pew: R+4), two conducted largely after the debate (Gallup R+2 / IBD-TIPP R+2), and two conducted primarily before (Politico O+1 / CNN O+3).

While much can change for both campaigns between now and election day, which is still a substantial amount of time in terms of the historically busy nature of the last month of an election, this is still a significant event for the Romney campaign. The best they had done previously was a tie back in early September and prior to that a 0.2% deficit to the Obama camp back in early May. While it remains to be seen if they can maintain it towards election day, the Romney camp is surging at precisely the time they'd most badly need to surge.

What it does tell us however, quite clearly, is that the election is not "over" as many have suggested previously. We have a definitive horse race. While the end result may ultimately be as many predicted (and in a 2 person race, one always has a 50/50 shot to essentially call the winner so that's not too impressive), there's no real way to dispute at this point that there's not a legitimate contest going on that could potentailly see either side pull ahead. Romney's debate performance seemingly has sparted a surge in the polls, and specifically his strongest of the entire campaign. And it's coming in the last month. With two more debates to go, there is ample oppertunity for him to either capitalize on that surge or to squander it, but in the moment he could not have asked for a better time to gain his first polling advantage.

RCP Average - General Election

Zyphlin said:

What it does tell us however, quite clearly, is that the election is not "over" as many have suggested previously.

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Exactly.

It isn't over til the fat lady sings and since this thing began I've always called out people of both sides who said and keep saying either candidate will definitely win.

Zyphlin said:

We have a definitive horse race.

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I wish they were racing to the glue factory.

Zyphlin said:

For the first time in this campaign, Romney has pulled to a slight lead in the RealClearPolitics Genreal Election Polls Average. The RCP Average currently sits at 48.0% for Romney to 47.3% for Obama, giving Romney a slight 0.7% lead. This score is based off of two polls conducted after the debate (Rassmussen: Tie / Pew: R+4), two conducted largely after the debate (Gallup R+2 / IBD-TIPP R+2), and two conducted primarily before (Politico O+1 / CNN O+3).

While much can change for both campaigns between now and election day, which is still a substantial amount of time in terms of the historically busy nature of the last month of an election, this is still a significant event for the Romney campaign. The best they had done previously was a tie back in early September and prior to that a 0.2% deficit to the Obama camp back in early May. While it remains to be seen if they can maintain it towards election day, the Romney camp is surging at precisely the time they'd most badly need to surge.

What it does tell us however, quite clearly, is that the election is not "over" as many have suggested previously. We have a definitive horse race. While the end result may ultimately be as many predicted (and in a 2 person race, one always has a 50/50 shot to essentially call the winner so that's not too impressive), there's no real way to dispute at this point that there's not a legitimate contest going on that could potentailly see either side pull ahead. Romney's debate performance seemingly has sparted a surge in the polls, and specifically his strongest of the entire campaign. And it's coming in the last month. With two more debates to go, there is ample oppertunity for him to either capitalize on that surge or to squander it, but in the moment he could not have asked for a better time to gain his first polling advantage.

RCP Average - General Election

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What In find interesting is that Romney has finally moved hisc total up, getting close to 50 % support. The thing that was most disasterous to us democrats about the debate is that Obama let Romney sell himself there almost unopposed.

So new polls got added to RCP's Average, and the upward trend continued with Romney's second updated average in the positives. He now sits at +1.5 with all but one poll (Politico O+1) being done primarily after the debate was complete. This is a 4.6 point swing Romney's direction since last Thursday, the day after the debates and before any post debate poll were released. While history tells us debate bounces from the first debate may not have a lasting effect by themselves, what it does do is make this a competitive race, as I previously said, that's going to come down to the wire unless there is some kind of major fumble on either sides behalf over the next few weeks.

RCP's electoral map prediction has also shrunk to the lowest I've seen it so far during this election, with Obama dropping 20 electoral points and it now sitting at 201 to 181. This is in part because they've had Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio all swap from lean Obama to toss up...with the first four showing Romney in the lead.

It's going to be difficult for the Romney camp to maintain this momentum, and if anything it shows a debate can cause a short term shift. That puts a lot of importance on the final debate, which may be the weakest one for Romney, since it will be closest to the end. There also is the question of whether or not the seeming overwhelming nature of Romney's victory, as evidenced by various polls to the general acknowledgement of many liberal pundits, is the reason for the significant movement and is unlikely to occur again unless one of them is massively off their game again during this campaign.

Did you also notice that they moved Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire and Michigan into the toss up category?

Obama still has the advantage, but it has become possible Romney could win. I think that is the change - its now a real horse race and there is enough distance left for either to cross the finish line first.

However, I still think it is Romney that has to close the gap despite the bounce from the first debate - which likely will be all but forget after the next Obama-Romney debate. The debate that will overwhelmingly most matter will be the last debate, not the first one.

I'm not too worried...at least not yet. Maybe I'm wrong, but it's pretty hard for me to believe that the whole trajectory of the campaign is going to change based on one good night for Mitt Romney. These guys are still the same candidates they were last week, they're still running the same campaigns they were last week, and the fundamentals are more or less the same as they were last week. I suspect that it's a temporary bounce that will revert to the mean, rather than a permanent change in the political landscape.

Although Romney's odds of winning definitely look better than they did a week ago, I'd still say Obama has the upper hand. I see no reason for Democrats to go into a panic mode based off of one week of bad polls for them. To put it another way: Maybe Romney can hold onto his lead and win in an historic upset...but we should keep in mind that it WOULD be an historic upset.

I tend to see it the same way as Democratic strategist Jim Jordan saw it: "That's my party...irrational overconfidence followed by irrational despair."

tessaesque said:

Did you also notice that they moved Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire and Michigan into the toss up category?

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Yep

Zyphlin said:

RCP's electoral map prediction has also shrunk to the lowest I've seen it so far during this election, with Obama dropping 20 electoral points and it now sitting at 201 to 181. This is in part because they've had Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio all swap from lean Obama to toss up...with the first four showing Romney in the lead.

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Kand, I agree that there's no need for irrational despair or worry on the part of the Democrats. What I am suggesting however is there is likely a need for many on your side to understand and realize that...despite claims on this forum and eslewhere over the past couple of monts....this race isn't "over", that there is a legitimate chance for Romney to win at this point. While it would be an upset in terms of the scope of the campaign, if viewing it within the scope of this month run up to the election it wouldn't be that large of an upset. The reality is that election day, and how likely a win is going to be, is dependent far more on the mood of the electorate in the days before the election....not the days 4 months out from it. My posts are not suggesting Democrats need to run around with their hair on fire because the Obama ship is sunk. It's not a situation of a Republican coming on here and ignorantly suggesting that "Obama is done". I'm basically making the assertion that while a few months ago it would've been at least reasonable to say that Obama looked very likely to be the one that ends up winning, that currently this thing is shaping up...at this point...to be a coin flip or something at least close to that. Basically suggesting that the notions of the election being "over" by either side right now is utter foolishness.

I don't believe Romney would be able to coast to a win simply based on this single debate performance. However, I do think that it gives him the much needed exposure and positive momentum...as evidenced by his first lead in the RCP average of this entire race...that might allow him to build upon it (or at least attempt to sustain it) through the next few weeks. Romney was somewhat flat lining in terms of gaining significant support or garnering significant enthusiasm prior to that debate...he's now not having that issue, which provides for something to build upon. It remains to be seen if he does build upon it, but it's unquestionably putting him in a better position than he was two weeks ago.

Zyphlin said:

Kand, I agree that there's no need for irrational despair or worry on the part of the Democrats. What I am suggesting however is there is likely a need for many on your side to understand and realize that...despite claims on this forum and eslewhere over the past couple of monts....this race isn't "over", that there is a legitimate chance for Romney to win at this point.

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Agreed. I've never considered Obama a shoo-in for reelection (although I've become more bullish on his chances since the convention and as the clock runs down). As long as there is time left on the clock in any election, there is enough uncertainty that there will almost ALWAYS be a legitimate chance for the underdog to win. Maybe not if the underdog is down by 20 points, but when they're only down 4-5 points (as Romney was) I think there's usually a chance for a comeback.

While it would be an upset in terms of the scope of the campaign, if viewing it within the scope of this month run up to the election it wouldn't be that large of an upset. The reality is that election day, and how likely a win is going to be, is dependent far more on the mood of the electorate in the days before the election....not the days 4 months out from it. My posts are not suggesting Democrats need to run around with their hair on fire because the Obama ship is sunk.

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I know you aren't suggesting that, I just think there will be plenty of Democrats who do just that anyway. As a pollster told E.J. Dionne a couple days ago, "When you show Republicans bad news in the polls, they want to kill you. When you show Democrats bad news in the polls, they want to kill themselves." :lol:

It's not a situation of a Republican coming on here and ignorantly suggesting that "Obama is done". I'm basically making the assertion that while a few months ago it would've been at least reasonable to say that Obama looked very likely to be the one that ends up winning, that currently this thing is shaping up...at this point...to be a coin flip or something at least close to that. Basically suggesting that the notions of the election being "over" by either side right now is utter foolishness.

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Agreed, Romney's odds have definitely improved and Obama was never a sure thing. I wouldn't exactly call it a coin flip...FiveThirtyEight pegs the odds at about 68-32 in Obama's favor, which sounds about right to me. But that's a lot better for Romney than the 88-12 it was last week.

I don't believe Romney would be able to coast to a win simply based on this single debate performance. However, I do think that it gives him the much needed exposure and positive momentum...as evidenced by his first lead in the RCP average of this entire race...that might allow him to build upon it (or at least attempt to sustain it) through the next few weeks. Romney was somewhat flat lining in terms of gaining significant support or garnering significant enthusiasm prior to that debate...he's now not having that issue, which provides for something to build upon. It remains to be seen if he does build upon it, but it's unquestionably putting him in a better position than he was two weeks ago.

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I'm a skeptic of the whole concept of political "momentum" in a two-way general election...I think that statistically, it's mostly a myth the same way that a "hot streak" in basketball is. With that said, you are correct that Romney has received much more enthusiasm from favorable media coverage in the past week (and Obama has received much worse media coverage in the past week), which certainly doesn't hurt his chances. But the media has a pretty short memory IMO: I suspect that after today people will be talking about the Biden-Ryan debate, and after next Tuesday they'll be talking about the second presidential debate. Whatever happens there will more or less shape the narrative until the third debate.