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Romney Taking Lead Of The Race Both Natianally And In Some States.

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greatar4

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It seems like Romney has gotten a big bounce after the first presidential debate. For instance Obama has been leading in Ohio all throughout this year. For the first time Romney is now leading by one point there. He is also leading the president by two points in a new Gallup poll among likely voters 49 - 47%. Although, I doubt that his lead is going to last. Lots of things can change after the vice presidential debate and the second presidential debate which coming up next week.

So far, I think Mitt Romney is quite well comparing to how he is been doing thoughout this race. What do you guys think?

Here is the polls that I am talking about.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 State Polls
Romney 49%, Obama 47% Among Likely Voters
 
....yesterday Gallup showed Obama 50, Romney 45. Today Romney's gained 4 points and Obama's lost 3? That's a big shift over night.


Then again, I have about 30% confidence in ANY of these polls.
 
I think the debate showed Obama to be a moron.. and empty suit.. and he cant recover from that "first impression"...its OVER..
Mitt wil continue to put Obama in his rearview mirror...
 
tessaesque said:
....yesterday Gallup showed Obama 50, Romney 45. Today Romney's gained 4 points and Obama's lost 3? That's a big shift over night.


Then again, I have about 30% confidence in ANY of these polls.
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I believe Gallup just started doing its likely voter polling, so this number is likely voters and the last was registered voters. Obama is still up three in their registered voter poll.
 
tessaesque said:
....yesterday Gallup showed Obama 50, Romney 45. Today Romney's gained 4 points and Obama's lost 3? That's a big shift over night.


Then again, I have about 30% confidence in ANY of these polls.
Click to expand...

Well... considering you have ZERO % objectivity on the matter... and didn't do the full research, I could care less how confident you are in them...


On 10/8 Gallup put out its weekly poll for 10/1-10/7 which showed Obama with a 5 pt lead... 3 of the 7 days were pre-debate

On 10/8 Gallup also put put a daily tracking poll for 10/5-10/7 which showed Romney with a 2 pt lead... entirely post debate...


Everyone always said, the polls tend to be meaningless until right before the election and after the debates... because they can swing momentum... and when there's such a decisive winner in the debate, as there was in the first one... it can certainly swing polls...

There are still the 3 other debates... for things to swing either way... and another jobs report...

However, the polls are starting to close in on what people are actually thinking, and Romney won over a lot of undecideds/independents in that debate...
 
At this point, Romney needs to shift into a prevent defense once the foreign policy debate is over if he is still ahead. After that, it is up to Obama to convince people he really really really deserves a second chance.
 
I cannot wait for the foreign policy debate. There really aren't any topics there that aren't sticky.
 
AdamT said:
I believe Gallup just started doing its likely voter polling, so this number is likely voters and the last was registered voters. Obama is still up three in their registered voter poll.
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Is this something they always do? Change the format in their polling based on timeline of the elections?
 
Intrade has gone to 61/39, quite a big change in the last few days. A week ago it was 75/25.

That's just info, not a political statement.
 
Travis007 said:
I think the debate showed Obama to be a moron.. and empty suit.. and he cant recover from that "first impression"...its OVER..
Mitt wil continue to put Obama in his rearview mirror...
Click to expand...



Then bet me $10,000.00 right here on DebatePolitics.com, that Romney will lose and lose significantly on November 6th, 2012. My prediction is that Romney, will lose and lose big. That's been my prediction every since the Republican Party decided to run with a Neo-Flipping Manchurian Candidate who can't make-up his own mind on 90% of the issues that he feigns a position in public.

I've never seen a candidate for the Presidency, evade his own stance on so many issues as Romney, did in the debates two weeks ago. I've also never seen a candidate for the Presidency, who re-defines the word pathological lair and who flips positions regionally depending on which portion of the country he happens to be giving a speech to at any particular moment in time.

His campaign is not based on substance, or material facts. He entire campaign has been based in undisputed lies, illogical innuendo, a total misrepresentation of his own position on many issues and a perpetual inability to tell the truth. He morphs into whatever candidate you want him to be, depending on which crowd he thinks he's pandering to in that moment. The only consistency coming from Romney, has been his inconsistency in telling the truth about his past/prior positions and why he continually changes them ever 10.5 seconds.

I have zero confidence in that kind of false mouthpiece leadership.

To wit: ...
 
greatar4 said:
It seems like Romney has gotten a big bounce after the first presidential debate. For instance Obama has been leading in Ohio all throughout this year. For the first time Romney is now leading by one point there. He is also leading the president by two points in a new Gallup poll among likely voters 49 - 47%. Although, I doubt that his lead is going to last. Lots of things can change after the vice presidential debate and the second presidential debate which coming up next week.

So far, I think Mitt Romney is quite well comparing to how he is been doing thoughout this race. What do you guys think?

Here is the polls that I am talking about.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 State Polls
Romney 49%, Obama 47% Among Likely Voters
Click to expand...

I agree there's been some good results for Romney, and it has me excited. I'm not sure he's actually ahead though, as a lot of these polls are in the stage right now where all their data is after Obama's bad debate but some of it is still before the good jobs numbers. It's certainly good news for Romney that he isn't down 3 or 4 points like he was before the debate though.
 
IndepCentristMA said:
Well... considering you have ZERO % objectivity on the matter... and didn't do the full research, I could care less how confident you are in them...


On 10/8 Gallup put out its weekly poll for 10/1-10/7 which showed Obama with a 5 pt lead... 3 of the 7 days were pre-debate

On 10/8 Gallup also put put a daily tracking poll for 10/5-10/7 which showed Romney with a 2 pt lead... entirely post debate...


Everyone always said, the polls tend to be meaningless until right before the election and after the debates... because they can swing momentum... and when there's such a decisive winner in the debate, as there was in the first one... it can certainly swing polls...

There are still the 3 other debates... for things to swing either way... and another jobs report...

However, the polls are starting to close in on what people are actually thinking, and Romney won over a lot of undecideds/independents in that debate...
Click to expand...


0% objectivity? Seriously? I questioned the validity of Romney being AHEAD, and I'm planning on voting for him. How exactly am I displaying 0% objectivity? 0% objectivity would be me screaming about how today's poll is totally accurate and yesterday's was obviously a bunch of nonsense. But I didn't say that.

So maybe don't throw around passive aggressive insults and dismissals, especially when it's obviously bull****.
 
I have expected all along that Romney would win due to a massive influx of nasty advertising and money over the last four weeks. It look pretty bleak for him until that debate performance making him viable again. I expect the money will flow and the ads will be made and he will win.
 
There's still 2 more debates. If Obama can make Romney look like a fool, it will flip again. Press him for specifics and don't let him get away with vague platitudes.
 
rocket88 said:
There's still 2 more debates. If Obama can make Romney look like a fool, it will flip again. Press him for specifics and don't let him get away with vague platitudes.
Click to expand...

I do not think Obama has the fortitude or style to do that. He needs to be vigorous and forceful, to be strong and unyielding, to be attacking and unrelenting. That is simply NOT in his character or in his bag of tricks.

Romney has been very well coached and he follows direction as good as a puppy being trained to pee on the newspapers in the basement.
 
haymarket said:
I have expected all along that Romney would win due to a massive influx of nasty advertising and money over the last four weeks. It look pretty bleak for him until that debate performance making him viable again. I expect the money will flow and the ads will be made and he will win.
Click to expand...

No that is an explanation of a simpleton.

The real reason is the bandwagon effect. People always love to support the winning team, hence a change in momentum gets amplified. Obama better not screw up next debate.
 
rocket88 said:
There's still 2 more debates. If Obama can make Romney look like a fool, it will flip again. Press him for specifics and don't let him get away with vague platitudes.
Click to expand...

I'd actually like to see that on both sides of the campaign.

I'd also like the moderators/Romney to pressure Obama to explain how he plans to revise his approach to work with the legislature to accomplish what needs accomplishing, which is honestly my biggest issue with him as president. To be fair, the GOP often behave like children, but the president has done little to encourage them to drop their antics, and has in fact brought some of their behavior upon himself through his "get in the back and shut up" style declarations.
 
tessaesque said:
I'd actually like to see that on both sides of the campaign.

I'd also like the moderators/Romney to pressure Obama to explain how he plans to revise his approach to work with the legislature to accomplish what needs accomplishing, which is honestly my biggest issue with him as president. To be fair, the GOP often behave like children, but the president has done little to encourage them to drop their antics, and has in fact brought some of their behavior upon himself through his "get in the back and shut up" style declarations.
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The problem is that vague platitudes work. "Hope" "Change" "Morning In America" "Leadership" "Compassionate Conservative"
 
rocket88 said:
The problem is that vague platitudes work. "Hope" "Change" "Morning In America" "Leadership" "Compassionate Conservative"
Click to expand...

Whenever I hear a campaign slogan I think of Frito in Idiocracy:

"Go 'way!! Baitin'!!"
 
Camlon said:
No that is an explanation of a simpleton.

The real reason is the bandwagon effect. People always love to support the winning team, hence a change in momentum gets amplified. Obama better not screw up next debate.
Click to expand...

I said this three months ago before any movement to Romney.

As to a simpleton - this is my business. This is what I do for a living. The real simpletons are all on the outside looking in.
 
haymarket said:
I said this three months ago before any movement to Romney.
Click to expand...
What did you say 3 months ago? That dirty Romney ads will lead to Romney winning, or the bandwagon effect?

Over to the Romney ads explanation, I think you are just making up an explanation that will cover you if Romney do in fact win. But reality is that actual performance, is much more important. Why? Because it influences what media is going to say about you. Before the debate all articles was about what is wrong with Romney. Now they are all talking about how Obama failed in the debates and his response to it. While ads can be important, I do not think Romney has a large advantage in terms of ads.

As to a simpleton - this is my business. This is what I do for a living. The real simpletons are all on the outside looking in.
Click to expand...
The problem is that you are letting your political affiliations influence your predictions and analysis. If you are going to be a good analyst, then you can simply not do that.
 
What you believe is what you want to believe because you believe it. It is immaterial to me and means nothing.

Romney will win and the last few weeks will see a plethora of attack ads that make the Swift boat ads look like a sunday school picnic. Count on it.
 
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