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Rasmussen: First National Poll After Debate

apdst said:
Rasmussen was the #1 in accuracy in 2008.
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Not.....

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

Rasmussen polling occupies an odd place in the political culture. In the conservative world, it is the gold standard. If you go to a conservative set on basically any random day, you'll see somebody touting a Rasmussen poll. Here is John McCormack at the Weekly Standard touting a poll showing huge support to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Here is Peter Wehner at Commentary doing the same. Rasmussen frequently asks unusual polling questions that produce results almost certainly calculated to demonstrate public support for the conservative position. (Here's one example of a loaded Rasmussen question.) Rasmussen has become a right-wing celebrity. He's the author of a conservative book. This fall he is a featured guest on National Review's cruise, along with other conservative luminaries.

Part of Rasmussen's celebrity status derives from the fact that even his polls on commonly-asked questions skew strongly toward the conservative position. Here, for instance, is Nate Silver's depiction of Rasmussen's measure of party identification:

Rasmussen's role in the public debate is problematic for several reasons. It's not altogether clear what causes him to consistently project results so much at odds with those of the rest of the polling community. But if there is something problematic about his methods, he has little incentive to correct it, because Rasmussen's business model increasingly relies upon maintaining the loyalty of staunch Republicans.

Now, to be perfectly clear about this, it's possible that Rasmussen is right and everybody else is wrong. The safest approach to using polling data is to include all results. The trouble is that Rasmussen can have such large outliers, and it polls so often, that the very inclusion of Rasmussen changes the results. The graph near the top of this item, showing level public approval for Obama, would show a steep dip if it included Rasmussen's findings, the latest of which has Obama sporting a disastrous 42/56 approval rating.

But the more problematic dynamic is Rasmussen's symbiotic relationship with the conservative base. The habitual practice by conservative pundits of quoting only Rasmussen polling reinforces conservatives' overweening certainty that they embody public opinion. It's an important component of right-wing epistemic closure, the Republican base having its own pollster who always tells them what they want to hear. In theory, there ought to be a corrective dynamic. If Rasmussen is wrong about the 2010 elections -- and, again, you can't be certain he will be -- in theory, this would cause Republicans to question their reliance upon his unusual findings. But it's entirely possible that Republicans would simply question the validity of the results themselves. It's massive voter fraud! Obama dirty tricks! Having heard on a daily basis that the American public had rejected the Democrats wholeheartedly, disbelieving the validity of the election results would create less cognitive dissonance.

Of course, one solution would be for the conservative pundits who relentlessly cite Rasmussen's findings to inform their readers that those findings, while not necessarily wrong, represent an outlier among pollsters. But I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that to happen.
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jerry7 said:
You stated previously that they always had Romney in the lead. That's not true. You've been attacking them and you aren't even aware of their recent results.
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The last 7 polls show they have Obama leading. I don't follow them all the time. But I'll bet since this race began, Romney lead all...especially if they said they were NOW showing in the last 7 polls Obama leading. And I'm not attacking anything i can't and haven't proven.
 
Muddy Creek said:
I see the steady lead from Obama as not making it that close. now voter registration fraud by republicans could prove interesting.
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Isn't the registration fraud by the democratsa just as significant?
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Florida officials are reviewing allegations of voter registration fraud against the state Democratic Party.

The Florida Department of State on Friday confirmed that it has forwarded complaints about alleged voter registration fraud against the Democrats and two other groups to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement. The groups are the Florida New Majority Education Fund and the National Council of La Raza/Democracia USA.
Voter fraud complaint filed against Fla. Democrats - Yahoo! News
 
When the polls show something you don't like, attack the polls.

The fact is, the race is too close to call just now, but Romney got a big bump in the debate.
 
Muddy Creek said:
The last 7 polls show they have Obama leading. I don't follow them all the time. But I'll bet since this race began, Romney lead all...especially if they said they were NOW showing in the last 7 polls Obama leading. And I'm not attacking anything i can't and haven't proven.
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Well, no. You're wrong again. But if you had read the link I provided it says that Obama had been in the lead 14 of the previous 16 days. I don't follow them every day either but I'll bet the leads switched back and forth. Not surprising in that every one paying attention knows how close it is. If anybody believed the poll last week that had Obama up by 9 points in Ohio, they really were duped by the pollster.
 
apdst said:
What is Obama going to "attack" with? His record?
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From Romney's site:
Issues | Mitt Romney for President

On education:
America’s traditional community and four-year colleges are the heart of our nation’s higher education system. However, a flood of federal dollars is driving up tuition and burdening too many young Americans with substantial debt and too few opportunities.

*Replace Burdensome Regulation With Innovation And Competition.

*Eliminate Unnecessary Certification Requirements[for k-12 teachers] That Discourage New Teachers.
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On energy:
Mitt will promote innovation by focusing the federal government on the job it does best – research and development – and will eliminate any barriers that might prevent new energy technologies from succeeding on their own merits. Strengthening and streamlining regulations

Mitt’s plan will... streamline the gauntlet of reviews, processes, administrative procedures, and lawsuits that mire so many new projects in red tape.
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As president, Mitt will work to expand and enhance access and opportunities for Americans to hunt and shoot.

Like the majority of Americans, Mitt does not believe that the United States needs additional laws that restrict the... right to keep and bear arms.
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On social security:
First, for future generations of seniors, Mitt believes that the retirement age should be slowly increased.
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On spending:
Eliminate Title X Family Planning Funding. Title X subsidizes family planning programs that benefit abortion groups like Planned Parenthood.

Reduce Subsidies For The National Endowments For The Arts And Humanities, The Corporation For Public Broadcasting, And The Legal Services Corporation NEA, NEH, and CPB provide grants to supplement other sources of funding. LSC funds services mostly duplicative of those already offered by states, localities, bar associations and private organizations.
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As president, Mitt Romney will eliminate the regulations promulgated in pursuit of the Obama administration’s costly and ineffective anti-carbon agenda. Romney will also press Congress to reform our environmental laws to ensure that they allow for a proper assessment of their costs.

A Romney administration will act swiftly to tear down the vast edifice of regulations the Obama administration has imposed on the economy.
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He isn't the president that's right for our country. This is something he's told us already and will continue to do so. :2wave:
 
jerry7 said:
Isn't the registration fraud by the democratsa just as significant?
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Florida officials are reviewing allegations of voter registration fraud against the state Democratic Party.

The Florida Department of State on Friday confirmed that it has forwarded complaints about alleged voter registration fraud against the Democrats and two other groups to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement. The groups are the Florida New Majority Education Fund and the National Council of La Raza/Democracia USA.
Voter fraud complaint filed against Fla. Democrats - Yahoo! News
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Nah, these are allegations....

Republicans voter fraud, rampid in several states, has been proven.

Perspective: Republicans play defense over voter registration fraud | StAugustine.com

Devoted to bashing Obama, the RNC gave the president’s reelection campaign a political contribution of sorts by insisting that state parties, such as Florida’s, hire a vendor that’s now under investigation for voter-registration fraud by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement in as many as 10 counties involving at least 220 suspect forms.

Remember all that talk from Republicans about voter fraud?

Well, it ain’t just for ACORN anymore.

Now, instead of being on offense against Obama, Republicans are playing defense over voter-registration fraud. Some organized Republican voter-registration drives have virtually ground to a halt as Republicans fired the firm, Strategic Allied Consulting, in seven battleground states.

It’s such a mess that the Republican Party of Florida has filed an elections complaint against the Strategic Allied Consulting, which then turned around and bashed…. The Republican Party of Florida.

“When the Republican Party of Florida chose to make likely libelous comments about our effort and stated that the Republican National Committee suggested us as the vendor, the RNC was put in the unenviable position of ending a long-term relationship for the sake of staying focused on the election,” a company statement said this week.

“While we wish their comments yesterday would have more accurately addressed the situation, we understand the logic of ending distractions and winning elections. We wish our friends there nothing but success going forward,” the statement said.

The Florida Democratic Party couldn’t have paid for such a result: The RPOF bashing an RNC vendor that turns around and bashes RPOF for slander.

Way to go, RNC.

In all, Strategic Allied Consulting earned at least $3 million from the RNC nationwide for voter-registration drives. In Florida, the state party received $1.3 million from the RNC to pay Strategic.

The contracts have been cancelled and, in Florida, Republicans now have to come up with a new way to add new voters ahead of the Oct. 9 registration deadline for the general election.

Republicans this year in Florida have added about 46,000 new voters to the rolls. Democrats have added 220,000 — and a good deal of that work was done by the Obama campaign and unpaid volunteers, Democrats say.

Democrats now lead Republicans by 443,166 active registered Florida voters. Expect that lead to grow.

The numbers are instructive. They indicate that Republicans felt the need to do something to boost their ranks and make it look like there was enthusiasm for their party as well.

The chances that Republicans wanted to create phony voters to fraudulently cast ballots are unlikely. It’s almost impossible to do, and it could result in a felony charge.

The fraud, to the degree there was any, was probably committed by part-time workers who wanted to collect a paycheck and do little work or by zealots who wanted to show Republicans gaining strength on the ground.

Of the Strategic Allied forms, at least 220 registration records are suspect.

In some, signatures, birthdays or addresses didn’t always match. Multiple forms were filled out in the same handwriting. A dead person might have been signed up. Party registrations were changed, sometimes to Republican.
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Allegations about democratic fraud....proven WIDE SPREAD fraud by republicans.
 
jerry7 said:
Well, no. You're wrong again. But if you had read the link I provided it says that Obama had been in the lead 14 of the previous 16 days. I don't follow them every day either but I'll bet the leads switched back and forth. Not surprising in that every one paying attention knows how close it is. If anybody believed the poll last week that had Obama up by 9 points in Ohio, they really were duped by the pollster.
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Rasmussen is a right wing pundit poll. Nothing more, nothing less. Their reputation has been known since 2000 or so. They can print what they like. Once you lie as a pollster, or show bias with questions, population polled, or are out of the loop with credible pollsters, it's all over.
 
LiberalAvenger said:
:lamo:lamo

The only thing for romney to have a blowout in this election is his tires.:lamo:lamo
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I notice you did not watch the debate, the only blowout was Obama, he never showed up. Empty Chair. Eastwood was right, Obama's just an empty chair.
 
apdst said:
When Rasmussen showed Obama ahead a few months ago, they were off the mark then, too?
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I don't know or care. They have been proven to lie about their results. Once that has been done by a pollster, then their credibility is over
 
Muddy Creek said:
No, that much is an opinion.

you have any facts?
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Obamacare, drilling ban, coal plant ban, under the radar gun control, redistribution, higher taxes
 
Dittohead not! said:
When the polls show something you don't like, attack the polls.

The fact is, the race is too close to call just now, but Romney got a big bump in the debate.
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You sure throw around "the fact is" a lot.

Fact is, when FOX is on your case, as they have been about Romney, you've lost.
 
apdst said:
Obamacare, drilling ban, coal plant ban, under the radar gun control, redistribution, higher taxes
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Not your opinion list. facts.

Show the laws, tell what they do to harm this nation and find data to support this. you're just quoting the drug addict limbaugh
 
Muddy Creek said:
You sure throw around "the fact is" a lot.

Fact is, when FOX is on your case, as they have been about Romney, you've lost.
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I do like those dull, dry old facts, not that they change anyone's mind. "Fox is on your case?" Does that mean what it used to mean, they are after you? They've been on Obama's case for years, and he still won the last election. He just might win this one, too.

The fact is, the election is too close to call.
 
Dittohead not! said:
I do like those dull, dry old facts, not that they change anyone's mind. "Fox is on your case?" Does that mean what it used to mean, they are after you? They've been on Obama's case for years, and he still won the last election. He just might win this one, too.

The fact is, the election is too close to call.
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No, FOX is on ROMNEY'S case and you can't have the full support of the right wingers when FOX is dissing you.
 
Muddy Creek said:
Nah, these are allegations....

Republicans voter fraud, rampid in several states, has been proven.

Perspective: Republicans play defense over voter registration fraud | StAugustine.com



Allegations about democratic fraud....proven WIDE SPREAD fraud by republicans.
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Hhhmmm....are we reading the same thing? The RNC caught registration discrepancies and fired the firm they were using. According to the link you provided. No one was arrested and the firm denies any wrong doing. And according to your link 220 registrations are suspect. It doesn't say anything about proof. And after years of the left whining that ACORN registration fraud isn't voter fraud you're now saying that it is. So the DNC paid ACORN to falsely register thousands in 2008 and never noticed it but of course they were guiltless. The RNC was on top of it and fired their private firm for what they suspect are irregularities and they are at fault. In your eyes. Ok.
 
j-mac said:
I just want to be crystal clear about what you are saying. See, I know the games played by the progressive, socialist left today.

So you want Obama to go on the attack is that right? And what exactly should he attack?
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A good place to start would be not letting Romney get away with all the lies that he did in the first debate. Over 1/2 of Romney's responses were determined to be flat out lies.
 
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