• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

Did the debate change anything?

Kreton

Kreton

Doesn't know
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 11, 2011
Messages
13,350
Reaction score
6,591
Location
Across the street from the family across the stree
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
I think it is clear that the overwhelming majority of people believe Romney won last night's debate. However, does anyone think it mattered? Do you think anyone changed their mind on who they were going to vote for?
 
i believe the debate gave romney credibility as a legitimate presidential contender; something he did not possess going into the debate
 
No, I do not think it will change many votes. What it changed is it pushed back against the incessant claim by Democrats that the election is already over and that Romney lost for being a bumbling dunderhead.

So while I do not think many votes changed today, I think it did end with Republicans finally able to again claim "GAME ON!"

I thought the debate was excellent, both earned my respect last night, and it showed how much "news" shifting from being responsible reporters to nearly all being editorializing, raging partisan-hack editorialists has hurt our political process.

The 24/7 talking head partisan hack talking heads need to SHUT THE F*UCK UP! and instead let us hear the candidates themselves.

:thumbs: to both President Obama and Governor Romney. Both earned my respect last night - and I'm feeling pretty good about the future regardless of which one wins.
 
joko104 said:
No, I do not think it will change many votes. What it changed is it pushed back against the incessant claim by Democrats that the election is already over and that Romney lost for being a bumbling dunderhead.

So while I do not think many votes changed today, I think it did end with Republicans finally able to again claim "GAME ON!"

I thought the debate was excellent, both earned my respect last night, and it showed how much "news" shifting from being responsible reporters to nearly all being editorializing, raging partisan-hack editorialists has hurt our political process.

The 24/7 talking head partisan hack talking heads need to SHUT THE F*UCK UP! and instead let us hear the candidates themselves.

:thumbs: to both President Obama and Governor Romney. Both earned my respect last night - and I'm feeling pretty good about the future regardless of which one wins.
Click to expand...

I am feeling the opposite. I am not feeling good about either candidate right now.
 
Yes, no, maybe. It certainly allows Romney to survive to fight another day. It was vital to Romney and not so vital for Obama to do well. Romney still has to finish the month off to make it a race.
 
The Republican's Harvard grad did better than the Democrat's Harvard grad.
 
NO its all politico speak. There may be a short term rise for one or the other but that will be fleeting. By Nov 6 the dust will have settled.
 
American said:
The Republican's Harvard grad did better than the Democrat's Harvard grad.
Click to expand...

This is Harvard v Harvard - something I pointed out way back when - and was only sneered at for doing so.
 
it will change one thing : superpac fundraising and spending.

first, a strong performance in the debates will bring in donors. secondly, there was a rumor going around that the big superpacs were deciding whether to keep spending at this level on Romney or to divert some of that money to the four senate races they are trying to win. my guess is that for now, they'll keep spending on Romney.
 
Typically the challenger gets a 1-3% bump after the first debate, and I would imagine that Romney will be at the high end. That would put the national numbers at a virtual dead heat -- probably with a very slight edge for Obama. OTOH, there are fewer undecided voters this year than most, so the effect may be muted.
 
muciti said:
I think it is clear that the overwhelming majority of people believe Romney won last night's debate. However, does anyone think it mattered? Do you think anyone changed their mind on who they were going to vote for?
Click to expand...

He reached the people he had to reach: The Independents.

Round 1 over. Romney takes it with a TKO. Round 2? We'll have to see.

I think Obama will be a different man next time 'round. I'm a little bit befuddled by his performance. I think perhaps he's become much to accustomed to people who hang on his every word. That is a dangerous position for him to be in.
 
muciti said:
I think it is clear that the overwhelming majority of people believe Romney won last night's debate. However, does anyone think it mattered? Do you think anyone changed their mind on who they were going to vote for?
Click to expand...

Nope. I am still not voting for Obamney.There is nothing either one of them can say that will make me want to vote for them, I will still vote in other elections and ballot questions going on that day.
 
muciti said:
I think it is clear that the overwhelming majority of people believe Romney won last night's debate. However, does anyone think it mattered? Do you think anyone changed their mind on who they were going to vote for?
Click to expand...

Not yet. But if he wins the next two, probably.
 
Harshaw said:
Not yet. But if he wins the next two, probably.
Click to expand...


Just how many votes are actually in play via the Debates and who are they?


Most Americans were fixed on who they were going to vote for over a year ago, and the percentage of the "Swing-Independent Undecided but Likely to Vote" voters has only gotten smaller since then. Pick your favorite pollster estimate, but call it, just for the sake of argument, 3%.


The percentage of those voters is larger in battleground states than in other states, that is part of what makes them a battleground state.


The variablility of Loyal Base TURNOUT is a much larger number of total votes in almost all states, making any conversion of the remaining "Undecided" voters of much less import to the end election outcome than the impact of the debates on base turnout. Base Turnout can vary greatly, as much as 30%+ based just on the WEATHER on election day.


The degree to which a victory in the Debates energizes the Base to show up on election day, the Debate victory matters in any Statewide (electoral vote) contest.


But the total votes in play by conversion of "Undecided" is dwarfed by the impact on turnout and the possible votes in play by base motivation.


The debates matter because of Base Motivation for turn out, not becasue of conversion of the dwindling number of "undecided".
 
Last edited:
Kurmugeon said:
Just how many votes are actually in play via the Debates and who are they?


Most Americans were fixed on who they were going to vote for over a year ago, and the percentage of the "Swing-Independent Undecided but Likely to Vote" voters has only gotten smaller since then. Pick your favorite pollster estimate, but call it, just for the sake of argument, 3%.


The percentage of those voters is large in battleground states than in other states, that is part of what makes them a battleground state.


The variablility of Loyal Base TURNOUT is a much larger number of votes in almost all states, making any conversion of the remaining "Undecided" voters of much less import to the end election outcome than the impact of the debates. Base Turnout can vary greatly, as much as 30%+ based just on the WEATHER on election day.


The degree to which a victory in the Debates energizes the Base to show up on election day, the Debate victory matters in any state (electoral vote) contest.


But the total votes in play by conversion of "Undecided" is dwarfed by the impact on turnout and the possible votes in play by base motivation.


The debates matter because of Base Motivation for turn out, not becasue of conversion of the dwindling number of "undecided".
Click to expand...

I'm not sure why you said all this in response to my post. I didn't make any grand claims, only that more debate victories will make a difference, and even that this one would not. That strikes me as a truism.
 
MaggieD said:
He reached the people he had to reach: The Independents.

Round 1 over. Romney takes it with a TKO. Round 2? We'll have to see.

I think Obama will be a different man next time 'round. I'm a little bit befuddled by his performance. I think perhaps he's become much to accustomed to people who hang on his every word. That is a dangerous position for him to be in.
Click to expand...

Don't forget the undecided voters, because Romney made huge strides in my opinion on that front... Nothing drives that point home better than the reations of undecided voters in Frank Luntz's focus group last night

http://www.debatepolitics.com/2012-...388-won-debate-just-ask-undecided-voters.html
 
Harshaw said:
I'm not sure why you said all this in response to my post. I didn't make any grand claims, only that more debate victories will make a difference, and even that this one would not. That strikes me as a truism.
Click to expand...


My point is that a Debate Victory should not be judged based on the statistic of how many "undecided" voters were converted.


A Debate Victory should be judged based on a more subtle metric of increase in likelihood of turnout among the loyal base, with minor points given for conversion of "undecided" voters.


Watch out for the Democrats and the Obama Campaign to take Obama's performce, head down, mumbling in defense, passive stance etc, not as a sign of unpreparedness, but a more subtle ploy for a longer term emotional reaction from the Democratic Loyal Base in terms of turnout.


Obama is a whole bunch of nasty things, but one thing he is NOT is stupid!


I think the Republicans may have been Debate One Base Motivation Gotcha'd and just don't know it yet...
 
justabubba said:
i believe the debate gave romney credibility as a legitimate presidential contender; something he did not possess going into the debate
Click to expand...

I think it turns this thing into an honest to goodness horse race at this point. If neither pull ahead, I think tie will go to the incumbant. But it's at a place now where if one or the other pulls ahead, or one or the other seriously flounders, the race could go either way.

The first debate marks the end of the stretch run, and I think this managed to pull Romney into legitimate passing distance of Obama. It may not happen, but it opens up the possability for it.

Had he flounded the first debate, or had Obama came out very strong, I think it would've been a massively uphill climb for Romney. It's still not an easy road ahead, but its a far more gradual incline now
 
Oh yea .... you betcha
 
Look, the Republicans are dancing around in victory over this Debate "Victory", but they may, I repeat "MAY" have missed the more subtle campaign play.


The Republicans are like a "Bull-in-a-China-Shoppe" when it comes to election strategy.


Obama ran well as the dark horse underdog in 2008. He can't run on his last four years of record. Obama's Base of Democrats are far more motivated by "Perceived Victimology Identity" politics than the Republican Base, which is largely motivated by concepts of Profits, Patriotism, and national Pride.


Why the odd behavior of staring at the floor, passive geastures, meek answers, petty quibs...


Obama spent too much time and money on debate preparation for that to be a mistake.


It is an ACT. Why?
 
Kurmugeon said:
My point is that a Debate Victory should not be judged based on the statistic of how many "undecided" voters were converted.
Click to expand...

OK, but I didn't say it should be.
 
Harshaw said:
OK, but I didn't say it should be.
Click to expand...


This started with:

Harshaw said:
muciti said:
I think it is clear that the overwhelming majority of people believe Romney won last night's debate. However, does anyone think it mattered? Do you think anyone changed their mind on who they were going to vote for?
Click to expand...


Not yet. But if he wins the next two, probably.
Click to expand...



The clear implication of your statement here is that you see, as most on this forum, and from what I'm watching/hearing/reading most across the country, see the Debate as a clear "Win" for Romney and you express a sentiment that it will "matter" or it might change the mind of voters.


Well, maybe it was a "Win" that mattered, depending on what you're trying to "Win", the Debate, or the 2012 Election?


America won every major battle in Vietnam, but lost the war...


Don't underestimate your opponent, his resources or intelligence.


The Democratic Base is VERY Victimology, Underdog, Rebellion oriented in its motivation and turn out.


The OWS crowd is not going to go out on a rainy day to stand long periods in a Poll waiting line to pull the lever for a standing Presidential Figure of Authority and Power.


But they would go out under duress to show their contempt for the "System" and to champion an "Underdog".


Despite what the Bull-in-a-China-Shoppe Republican Strategists seem to think, this election will NOT turn on conversions of the remaining few percent of still "Undecided" voters. If they haven't made up their minds by this point, forget them, it is an objective lost in diminishing returns.


The Republican should focus on just what the Democrats are successfully doing in this Debate, motivating your base, while discouraging or giving over-confidence to the opponent’s base.


The Obama Campaign "Won" this debate in achieving ELECTION objective by giving the impression of losing the Debate.


The Republicans have once again been out-maneuvered.


Keep your Eyes on the Prize.


We're not trying to "Win" Debates, we're trying to Win the 2012 Election.


-
 
Last edited:
Kurmugeon said:
This started with:





The clear implication of your statement here is that you see, as most on this forum, and from what I'm watching/hearing/reading most across the country, see the Debate as a clear "Win" for Romney and you express a sentiment that it will "matter" or it might change the mind of voters.


Well, maybe it was a "Win" that mattered, depending on what you're trying to "Win", the Debate, or the 2012 Election?


America won every major battle in Vietnam, but lost the war...


Don't underestimate your opponent, his resources or intelligence.


The Democratic Base is VERY Victimology, Underdog, Rebellion oriented in its motivation and turn out.


The OWS crowd is not going to go out on a rainy day to stand long periods in a Poll waiting line to pull the lever for a standing Presidential Figure of Authority and Power.


But they would go out under duress to show their contempt for the "System" and to champion an "Underdog".


Despite what the Bull-in-a-China-Shoppe Republican Strategists seem to think, this election will NOT turn on conversions of the remaining few percent of still "Undecided" voters. If they haven't made up their minds by this point, forget them, it is an objective lost in diminishing returns.


The Republican should focus on just what the Democrats are successfully doing in this Debate, motivating your base, while discouraging or giving over-confidence to the opponent’s base.


The Obama Campaign "Won" this debate in achieving ELECTION objective by giving the impression of losing the Debate.


The Republicans have once again been out-maneuvered.


Keep your Eyes on the Prize.


We're not trying to "Win" Debates, we're trying to Win the 2012 Election.


-
Click to expand...

O . . . K. I'm just going to back away quietly now.
 
muciti said:
I think it is clear that the overwhelming majority of people believe Romney won last night's debate. However, does anyone think it mattered? Do you think anyone changed their mind on who they were going to vote for?
Click to expand...

Yes... heavily...

Most people thought that this election was over... last night was supposed to be the coronation event for Obama, when he was going to embarass Romney with his speaking abilities and his brains... It went the exact opposite way...

Romney looked like the real leader on the stage, the more presidential candidate, and the candidate that could actually bring about hope and change...

The president looked defeated, answerless, unable to speak to any major accomplishment, out of real ideas, and hopeless...

To the ardent conservatives, they were going to either vote against Obama or stay home... a lot less of them are staying home after that debate...

To the ardent liberals, they're pissed at the president, for not representing their views, and not living up to their expectations of him... they're either voting for him, or considering a third party candidate if it continues...

To the independent and undecided voters... Romney is now the guy theyre voting for... because he showed what they want... a willingness to put results first and partisan politics on the back burner... and a real initiative to take on issues in an executive capacity... Romney is the one who looked like the president, Obama looked like the outgoing lame duck president...

So many people have even taken to subconsciously calling him President Romney...

That's the Mitt Romney I expected, and know he can be in the position... The guy that renewed my faith in politics... The fiscal turnaround specialist, that accomplishes collaborative goals, despite obstacles... as a real leader!
 
Harshaw said:
O . . . K. I'm just going to back away quietly now.
Click to expand...


Nothing to be frightened of...


I just saying, Obama's poor performance was just a act, designed to reposition Romney as the figure of Authority and Establishment, and remake Obama into the Underdog Rebel.


I don't think Republicans should not fall for it, they should twist it into Obama's undoing.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom