• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

RCP newly updated and has Obama with-in 1 of winning.

P

PeteEU

DP Veteran
Joined
Mar 11, 2006
Messages
38,976
Reaction score
14,318
Location
Denmark
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Centrist
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin has been moved to lean Obama, but more shockingly... Missouri has gone from Lean Romney to Toss up..

Romney has 3 debates.. well 1 IMO to turn this around.. else he is toast.

But lets hear about the "flawed polls" and all that jizz from the usual suspects.
 
it's simply too early to call the election. i think after the debates, we'll have a clearer picture.
 
I don't understand why they flipped Missouri. Romney is polling an average of +5 there and has only lost two polls there in the past year (both by 1 percentage point).
 
Garbage in garbage out. If you load flawed data you get a distorted picture. Here is a link to an article that appeared in yesterday's Washington Post that reveals that the recent Post/ABC poll of swing states showing Obama up by 11 points actually consisted of 160 people and has a margin of error of 8 points. Can anybody defend this type of polling? Does anybody really believe that it's an attempt to present an honest picture?
*****************************************************************************************************
You’ve got to get deep into the weeds to tell what is going on. The Washington Post-ABC pollsters tell us that “52 percent of likely voters across swing states side with Obama and 41 percent with Romney in the new national poll.” But without the proper context, readers may jump to an incorrect conclusion when they see that figure, concluding that Obama is home-free in swing states. As I learned from Post pollster Jon Cohen, that finding is based on the responses of a total of 160 people, and it has a margin of error of 8 percentage points. So yes, there may be a difference between swing-state and national numbers, but the gap might be very small or it might be big
The polls show a race that is still up for grabs - Right Turn - The Washington Post
 
PeteEU said:
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin has been moved to lean Obama, but more shockingly... Missouri has gone from Lean Romney to Toss up..

Romney has 3 debates.. well 1 IMO to turn this around.. else he is toast.

But lets hear about the "flawed polls" and all that jizz from the usual suspects.
Click to expand...

Missouri may be considered a tossup, but unless Obama wins by about 9-10% nationally he is not going to win it.

The rest of the map is more troubling though. Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Hampshire seem to be getting out of reach, and even though they call Nevada a tossup, I think Obama is the heavy favorite there. If Romney can't make a comeback in Ohio, I don't see a path to victory for him.
 
jerry7 said:
Garbage in garbage out. If you load flawed data you get a distorted picture. Here is a link to an article that appeared in yesterday's Washington Post that reveals that the recent Post/ABC poll of swing states showing Obama up by 11 points actually consisted of 160 people and has a margin of error of 8 points. Can anybody defend this type of polling? Does anybody really believe that it's an attempt to present an honest picture?
*****************************************************************************************************
You’ve got to get deep into the weeds to tell what is going on. The Washington Post-ABC pollsters tell us that “52 percent of likely voters across swing states side with Obama and 41 percent with Romney in the new national poll.” But without the proper context, readers may jump to an incorrect conclusion when they see that figure, concluding that Obama is home-free in swing states. As I learned from Post pollster Jon Cohen, that finding is based on the responses of a total of 160 people, and it has a margin of error of 8 percentage points. So yes, there may be a difference between swing-state and national numbers, but the gap might be very small or it might be big
The polls show a race that is still up for grabs - Right Turn - The Washington Post
Click to expand...

Most polls aren't of just 160 people though, and that poll is really meaningless anyway, since it isn't a poll of specific states. Other polls are better, especially when you aggregate them.
 
Anagram said:
Missouri may be considered a tossup, but unless Obama wins by about 9-10% nationally he is not going to win it.

The rest of the map is more troubling though. Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Hampshire seem to be getting out of reach, and even though they call Nevada a tossup, I think Obama is the heavy favorite there. If Romney can't make a comeback in Ohio, I don't see a path to victory for him.
Click to expand...

Scott Walker won so Im not believing the Wisc numbers.. or any of these numbers..
 
Travis007 said:
Scott Walker won so Im not believing the Wisc numbers.. or any of these numbers..
Click to expand...

Polls showed Scott Walker winning by more than he did. Plus that was a special election, which is notoriously hard to poll due to the abnormal turnout.
 
Anagram said:
Missouri may be considered a tossup, but unless Obama wins by about 9-10% nationally he is not going to win it.

The rest of the map is more troubling though. Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Hampshire seem to be getting out of reach, and even though they call Nevada a tossup, I think Obama is the heavy favorite there. If Romney can't make a comeback in Ohio, I don't see a path to victory for him.
Click to expand...
They seem to have set a pretty large margin for the “toss-up” bin. Missouri and Nevada are both at 5 point margins on the running averages.
 
Anagram said:
Polls showed Scott Walker winning by more than he did. Plus that was a special election, which is notoriously hard to poll due to the abnormal turnout.
Click to expand...

well bro.. the good news is this election will unlike any other.. all models are moot... Obama is going to be destroyed
 
Travis007 said:
well bro.. the good news is this election will unlike any other.. all models are moot... Obama is going to be destroyed
Click to expand...

If you say so. I'm just going to trust the historical accuracy of polling.
 
Anagram said:
If you say so. I'm just going to trust the historical accuracy of polling.
Click to expand...

They had Walker down 5 the week of the election...
 
Yawn. If people believed that Obama were the Winner already then I would have to wonder why those people would continue to bash Romney if they truly believed it.
 
Anagram said:
If you say so. I'm just going to trust the historical accuracy of polling.
Click to expand...

Historic Polls claimed Carter was going to win in a landslide and that Kerry/Edwards were going to beat Bush/Cheney in 2004

It's retarded to claim the election is "over" at this point with so many laughable skewed polls. All this really is the liberal attempt at a new narrative to suppress Romney votes. Obama is going to lose in a landslide.
 
Bronson said:
Historic Polls claimed Carter was going to win in a landslide and that Kerry/Edwards were going to beat Bush/Cheney in 2004

It's retarded to claim the election is "over" at this point with so many laughable skewed polls. All this really is the liberal attempt at a new narrative to suppress Romney votes. Obama is going to lose in a landslide.
Click to expand...

The election isn't over, of course. It's just quite likely that Obama will win.
 
Bronson said:
Historic Polls claimed Carter was going to win in a landslide and that Kerry/Edwards were going to beat Bush/Cheney in 2004

It's retarded to claim the election is "over" at this point with so many laughable skewed polls. All this really is the liberal attempt at a new narrative to suppress Romney votes. Obama is going to lose in a landslide.
Click to expand...

No one predicted Carter would win in a landslide in the month before the election and Kerry never led Bush in the polls after August. The final results turned out to be very accurate.RealClear Politics - Polls

Also the closeness of the last debate to the presidential election, where Reagan won a decisive victory over Carter, made polling for that late race difficult.
 
jerry7 said:
Interesting. There are 2 colleges and 2 professional pollers in your link and the colleges significantly out performed the pros. That's quite revealing.
Click to expand...

A sample size of four on an election of really abnormal turnout is not enough data to draw a conclusion.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom