State Polls Today: FL, OH and NC

FL: gravis, obama +1, sample D+3.8, youths comprise 14% of sample

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_FL_1001.pdf

OH: ppp (dem pollster from carolina), obama +4, D+5, woman outnumber men sampled, 54-46

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_930.pdf

NC: ppp, tie, D+14, women 56-44, youth vote 15%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_9301.pdf

NC: arg, romney +4, D+10, women 53-47, no age data available

North Carolina 2012 Presidential Ballot

A very informative article appeared in today's Washington Post that completely destroyed the legitimacy of their most recent poll. It was written by one of their own columnists and is shocking in its honesty.
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In the Washington Post-ABC News poll and the Battleground Poll, both of which show a race within the margin of error nationally and with President Obama under 50 percent, Mitt Romney supporters will find confirmation that the contest’s dynamics have changed very little, if at all, since the summer. The dramatic ups and downs in August and September seem to be a wash.

But wait, is the race still in the bag for Obama, as some would have you believe?

You’ve got to get deep into the weeds to tell what is going on. The Washington Post-ABC pollsters tell us that “52 percent of likely voters across swing states side with Obama and 41 percent with Romney in the new national poll.” But without the proper context, readers may jump to an incorrect conclusion when they see that figure, concluding that Obama is home-free in swing states. As I learned from Post pollster Jon Cohen, that finding is based on the responses of a total of 160 people, and it has a margin of error of 8 percentage points. So yes, there may be a difference between swing-state and national numbers, but the gap might be very small or it might be big.
The polls show a race that is still up for grabs - Right Turn - The Washington Post

"Okay we mislead you but not because we mislead you but because you are stupid and only saw what you wanted to see"--Washington Post-ABC

today's rcp generic avg: R+1

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Generic Congressional Vote

meanwhile in CO, number more empirical (and painful):

The slowest economic recovery since World War II is going especially slow for sections of Colorado, according to a letter from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment (CDLE) obtained by The Colorado Observer.

In seven counties in Colorado unemployed individuals are close to or exceeding 20% of the population, a letter from the Chief Economist of CDLE to the U.S. Department of Agriculture says.

The letter, obtained through the Colorado Open Records Act, was sent August 29 as required by federal law. According to the Consolidated Farm and Rural Development Act, the Colorado Labor Department is required to certify counties where the “Not Employed Rate” surpasses 19.5%.

Ranking highest was Costilla County at 23.56 percent. The list runs from larger counties like Pueblo (20.09%), Montrose (20.62%) and Fremont (19.66%) to smaller populations like Huerfano (21.78%), Archuleta (19.97%) and Dolores (19.85%).

Colorado has faced one of the slowest economic recoveries in the nation coming out of the recession.

Last month, Colorado’s official unemployment rate — 8.2% — surpassed the national unemployment rate for first time in nearly 7 years. While unemployment fell from 8.3% the previous month, Colorado’s unemployment rate rose for four consecutive months prior to that.

Click to expand...

Real Unemployment Reaches 20% In 7 Colorado Counties | The Colorado Observer

Fisher said:

"Okay we mislead you but not because we mislead you but because you are stupid and only saw what you wanted to see"--Washington Post-ABC

Click to expand...

More like "In this single poll you can't see for sure what is going on in swing states, because the poll isn't really made for that." Fortunately there are polls of swing states that have much larger sample sizes than 160 aggregate across all of them, but Ms. Rubin doesn't seem interested in mentioning them?

I read on some online new thingy yesterday that Romney is now up in NC but still within the margin of error, so things are tightening up.