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Latest Swing State Polls

areafiftyone

areafiftyone

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Once again those polled do not represent the expected turnout on election day. The NYT polls were Ohio dems +9, Pa. dems+11, Fla. dems +9. The Franklin &Marshal Pa. poll was dems +13. Could not find a breakdown for the Insider Advantage.
 
areafiftyone said:
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed through the day:

Florida: Obama 53%, Romney 44% ( NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 46% ( InsiderAdvantage)

Ohio: Obama 53%, Romney 43% ( NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)

Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, Romney 42% ( NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)

Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, Romney 43% ( Franklin & Marshall)


Will be updated here throughout the day: Taegan Goddard's Political Wire
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already debunked.. Libs are getting desperate..
 
Travis007 said:
already debunked.. Libs are getting desperate..
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LOL the only ones getting desperate are the Conservatives who continue to push the flawed and debunked idea that all polls (even the conservative leaning ones) are flawed and oversampling the dems...
 
PeteEU said:
LOL the only ones getting desperate are the Conservatives who continue to push the flawed and debunked idea that all polls (even the conservative leaning ones) are flawed and oversampling the dems...
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do you vote in our election?
 
areafiftyone said:
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed through the day:

Florida: Obama 53%, Romney 44% ( NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 46% ( InsiderAdvantage)

Ohio: Obama 53%, Romney 43% ( NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)

Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, Romney 42% ( NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)

Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, Romney 43% ( Franklin & Marshall)


Will be updated here throughout the day: Taegan Goddard's Political Wire
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then why bother with the election. just crown obama king of america, give him dictatorial powers, and make him president for life.
 
PeteEU said:
LOL the only ones getting desperate are the Conservatives who continue to push the flawed and debunked idea that all polls (even the conservative leaning ones) are flawed and oversampling the dems...
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the oversampling of dems has been documented. but polls of 1000 people are still BS.
 
PeteEU said:
LOL the only ones getting desperate are the Conservatives who continue to push the flawed and debunked idea that all polls (even the conservative leaning ones) are flawed and oversampling the dems...
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So you honestly believe that the Obama will win Ohio by 10%? I bet the person who managed that poll doesn't even believe it. He won Ohio in 2008 by less than 5%. Do you really think he's reproducing that same coalition righ now? Take closer look at those polls. Take hard look at the independents numbers for that poll and compare them to the 2008 exit polling numbers.

After you do that, tell me how you feel about the posted poll.
 
jerry7 said:
Once again those polled do not represent the expected turnout on election day. The NYT polls were Ohio dems +9, Pa. dems+11, Fla. dems +9. The Franklin &Marshal Pa. poll was dems +13. Could not find a breakdown for the Insider Advantage.
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exactly which is a great sign for Romney.. so these Lib rags are putting out propoganda to try to get Obama some help..

here in NJ I see huge banner/signs on companies openly supporting Romney.. I have never seen that before.. I have not even seen a new "Erkle Obama/Stupid Joe 2012" bumper sticker..
 
Travis007 said:
already debunked.. Libs are getting desperate..
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Try these ones then:

Ohio: Obama 49% - Romney 42%

Florida: Obama 49% - Romney 44%

Are they more to your liking? Or do you expect that too is a liberal lie?
 
Peter King said:
Try these ones then:

Ohio: Obama 49% - Romney 42%

Florida: Obama 49% - Romney 44%

Are they more to your liking? Or do you expect that too is a liberal lie?
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How about a link. I would like to see a breakdown of the demographics.
 
Good news, but the only polls that matter are the ones in November and the ones the strippers dance from.
 
RCP's aggregate polling shows significantly less dramatic variations in the candidates' support. Granted, those aggregates don't have polls dated beyond the 24th for the most part, but I have trouble believing there was a 5 point jump in Florida in two days.

Looking at the Quinnipac sampling, it also looks like they over sampled democrats as "likely voters".

27% of respondents were republican
36% were democrat
33% were independents

Not sure what they're basing that on. From their website:
We use screen questions to determine likely voters. We use different screen questions depending on the election (ie. primary vs general election, presidential vs. off-year election, etc.). In past elections, we have used questions measuring intention to vote, attention to the campaign, past voting behavior, and interest in politics to identify who is likely vote.
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Based on the last 5 presidential elections in Florida, I'm not sure how they're getting a 9%-point difference between the two, not including independents.
 
Good Lord every conservative on this website is a statistician now. There must of been some Fox News pundit attacking the polls or something.
 
iliveonramen said:
Good Lord every conservative on this website is a statistician now. There must of been some Fox News pundit attacking the polls or something.
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If the polls skewed the other way I'm about 99% sure "every liberal" would be a statistician, too.

That said, the Quinnipiac poll being cited in most of those recent results show shockingly dramatic jumps for Obama that aren't supported by other recent polls or by anything that has taken place since, say, last Friday. It isn't unthinkable for somebody of ANY affiliation to point that out and wonder exactly where those results came from, or what the explanation is for such a large jump over such a short period.

Even more so for those who have looked at the polling history and the typical swing in voter preference in these states....swings that are much more modest over the same period of time.
 
tessaesque said:
If the polls skewed the other way I'm about 99% sure "every liberal" would be a statistician, too.
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No, this digging through poll sample business seems to be a conservative disease. Liberals will point out from time to time that certain pollsters, like Rasmussen, don't poll cell phone users which skews their polls in favor of Republicans.
 
AdamT said:
No, this digging through poll sample business seems to be a conservative disease. Liberals will point out from time to time that certain pollsters, like Rasmussen, don't poll cell phone users which skews their polls in favor of Republicans.
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When one poll returns results so far outside of the aggregate as to seem shocking (as the Quinnipiac polls do), anybody, liberal or conservative, would do well to question it.

If a poll came out tomorrow showing Obama had dropped to a 1 point lead in Michigan, I'd want to know what the hell happened to generate that kind of polling result. It's a matter of comprehension instead of blind cliff jumping with the lemming population.

But if bias gets you by, and if it makes it easier to deal with the world around you then hey...more power to ya. I'd much prefer to understand the outlying data instead of simply ingesting it without a single thought of my own.
 
tessaesque said:
When one poll returns results so far outside of the aggregate as to seem shocking (as the Quinnipiac polls do), anybody, liberal or conservative, would do well to question it.

If a poll came out tomorrow showing Obama had dropped to a 1 point lead in Michigan, I'd want to know what the hell happened to generate that kind of polling result. It's a matter of comprehension instead of blind cliff jumping with the lemming population.

But if bias gets you by, and if it makes it easier to deal with the world around you then hey...more power to ya. I'd much prefer to understand the outlying data instead of simply ingesting it without a single thought of my own.
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Personally I don't put much credence in ANY one poll. I rely on poll averaging which cuts down the effect of outliers.
 
tessaesque said:
RCP's aggregate polling shows significantly less dramatic variations in the candidates' support. Granted, those aggregates don't have polls dated beyond the 24th for the most part, but I have trouble believing there was a 5 point jump in Florida in two days.

Looking at the Quinnipac sampling, it also looks like they over sampled democrats as "likely voters".

27% of respondents were republican
36% were democrat
33% were independents

Not sure what they're basing that on. From their website:


Based on the last 5 presidential elections in Florida, I'm not sure how they're getting a 9%-point difference between the two, not including independents.
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Not necessarily. Good pollsters don't weight their polls by party ID because it's such a dynamic trait. When democrats have a bounce like the one they are in the middle of now, more people answering polls identify themselves as democrats even if it's not their official registration, and the same thing applies for Republicans. This poll is an outlier though, 4-5% off the average of all polls.
 
Unless you Live In One Of those Swing States & get Calls Back to Back_ So you tell them what they want to hear-
gender_ age and voter choice_ i have done that twice today_ laughing when I hung up the phone_ tho I don"t
like telling lies_ its My phone" _ I pay the Bill_
let them Put those in their poll"____
as stated_ the only true poll will be Nov.6th'
 
tessaesque said:
If the polls skewed the other way I'm about 99% sure "every liberal" would be a statistician, too.

That said, the Quinnipiac poll being cited in most of those recent results show shockingly dramatic jumps for Obama that aren't supported by other recent polls or by anything that has taken place since, say, last Friday. It isn't unthinkable for somebody of ANY affiliation to point that out and wonder exactly where those results came from, or what the explanation is for such a large jump over such a short period.

Even more so for those who have looked at the polling history and the typical swing in voter preference in these states....swings that are much more modest over the same period of time.
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And they've pointed out differences that may account for major swings. For one a higher percentage of "registered voters" are now calling themselves "likely voters". More undecided individuals are making their decision. Views as far as who is better for the economy have been shifting. Even optimism of the economy is changing.

Sure nobody would say Obama is winning in a landslide on the batlleground states but multiple polls polling multiple topics provides the indication that a lot of people are either deciding for Obama or changing their views over Obama vs. Romney. Polls are not a literal representation of what the voting population is thinking. They give an indication, they give trends over time, they taken as a whole show the movement of the population. You guys are pointing to them and acting like they are intended to mean more than they do.

Pointing to one poll and saying it's off (which of course is probably true) is not the same thing as every polling joint in the country being in the tank for Obama and putting out polls to artificially make his numbers higher.
 
jerry7 said:
The poll was conducted by Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw and Company and overpolled dems by 5%.
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Again, party ID representation in the poll is more affected by the presidential numbers than the other way around. If the race moves toward Obama than there will be a jump in Democratic party identification. If it moves back toward Romney then Republican affiliation in the polls will jump. The polls don't measure actual voter registration, and Party ID is such a dynamic trait, that trying to weight for it is usually a bad idea.
 
Anagram said:
Again, party ID representation in the poll is more affected by the presidential numbers than the other way around. If the race moves toward Obama than there will be a jump in Democratic party identification. If it moves back toward Romney then Republican affiliation in the polls will jump. The polls don't measure actual voter registration, and Party ID is such a dynamic trait, that trying to weight for it is usually a bad idea.
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As of August 31 according to Rasmussen, voters self identified as republicans 37%, democrat 33% and independents 29%.
 
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