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Latest Swing State Polls

Taylor said:
The poll results I listed in my last post can't be explained by voters changing identification to Democrat after having said they planned to vote for Obama. That would produce an effect in the right direction (inflating D relative to R) but the effect is miniscule. Furthermore the results suggest that Independents are split, so it's questionable that any such effect played a role at all.
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I don't see why it doesn't work out. A certain percentage, that we don't know, of voters saying they are Democrats are actually independents, and the same for Republicans. Because of the current Democratic bounce, there are more of the independents identifying as Democrats. The voting split of those that still identify as independents don't really matter.
 
Travis007 said:
voter suppression... Like the New Black Panther Party in Philly? that Holder allowed?

or you refering to fake liberal supression aka the need to show an ID card?

You want to talk about ACORN?

I dont think you do....
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If you think that was so voter suppression, you don't know what voter suppression is. One intimating black man is nothing compared to purges of voter registration records, voter ID cards and not having sufficient number of voter booths in urban areas, but plenty in the suburbs. Then there is True-The-Vote, which is exactly what you complain about with the New Black Panthers on a franchise scale (though probably a lot less intimating as they are all white guys over 40)...

I am happy to talk about Acorn. My guess is that you, like most Cons, have no clue what Acorn was other than what they told you on Fox. I actually know quite a bit about the organization... I dealt with them 30 years ago before you had ever of them.... If you think Acorn effected the last election one Iota, then you are abusing your meds.
 
I am skeptical that the democrats turned out 90% of their base and the GOP turned out 85% of its base nationally in 2008 with 30%+ of registered voters not voting. This was a poll since the side says (%saying). Even if you take out the states that do not have party affiliation in their registration, I would think there would be more accurate or less questionable numbers available in real time data (not faulting anyone for the post, just that I think the chart needs to be taken with a grain of salt. )
 
Real Clear Politics has moved Ohio from "Toss Up" to "Leans Obama". In that assessment, Obama needs only 1 (and any one) of the nine toss up states to win the whole thing. Of course, if Ohio is really Obama's then either Mitt is toast (most likely) or Mitt becomes the first Regressive ever to win without Ohio.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Go Buckeyes!
 
Polls, at the very best, only show how people would vote on the day that poll was taken... not how people will or would vote on November 6th. These things shift too much for me to say anything other than it's still way too early for a victory dance in Ohio for Obama supporters.
 
Taylor said:
I base it on election data provided by ANES:

Screen-shot-2012-09-19-at-2.05.37-PM.png



Nobody said anything about "droves" - but Republicans will have significantly better turnout for Romney than Democrats will have for Obama. At least, that's what 50+ years of data tells us.
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And what does that graph represent? Because no way in hell does the US have 80 and 90% voter turnout lol. The US can barely break 50% most of the time. The graph makes absolutely no sense.
 
PeteEU said:
And what does that graph represent? Because no way in hell does the US have 80 and 90% voter turnout lol. The US can barely break 50% most of the time. The graph makes absolutely no sense.
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I'm having a hard time making sense of it too. Maybe it's trying to say that those are the percentages that the registered Republicans and Democrats vote at, but that still seems suspiciously high, and even then, doesn't make the point that he's trying to make. There are more registered democrats than republicans. If the republicans turn out 90% and the Dem turn out 85%, it does not mean that the Republicans turned out more, just a higher percentage. It's still entirely possible that there were more democrats. It's kind of like would you rather 90% of a thousand dollars or 80% of a million dollars. The percentages mean very little at that point, knowing that the amounts are the same. Again, that's only if I'm reading this chart correctly.
 
Travis007 said:
voter suppression... Like the New Black Panther Party in Philly? that Holder allowed?
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Holder wasn't even in office when that black panther thing occurred. Get your facts straight dude.
 
PeteEU said:
And what does that graph represent? Because no way in hell does the US have 80 and 90% voter turnout lol. The US can barely break 50% most of the time. The graph makes absolutely no sense.
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You are confusing turnout among registered voters, which is what the graph shows, with turnout for eligible voters, which is obviously lower.
 
upsideguy said:
No, I love my country. I endeavor to protect from Republicans.
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no.. you love France..

You must miss heros like Jeremiah Carter...

name the things you like on Obama.. ?,,,, there is NOTHING... pereiod but strawman BS..
 
Travis007 said:
no.. you love France..

You must miss heros like Jeremiah Carter...

name the things you like on Obama.. ?,,,, there is NOTHING... pereiod but strawman BS..
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Yes, I do love France, particularly in the summer. Germany, Norway, Austria, Italy and Great Britain are pretty cool as well. Great to visit each, but I would prefer to live in Colorado, as I do.

As far as what I like about Obama; I am a Democrat. I trust his core values more than those of the Republicans. I do think the Republicans are somewhere between clueless and cavilier about the US economy. The idea that cutting taxes on the wealthy leads to prosperity is somewhere between bad theory and complete silliness. Romney has the same economic and foreign policy of GW, generally considered one of America's worst presidents.

Historical rankings of Presidents of the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Frankly, I think Obama accomplished quite a bit despite having heavy ankle weights while treading water where the seas are eight feet deep. I posted that in another thread. Enjoy.

http://www.debatepolitics.com/2012-...atest-swing-state-polls-8.html#post1060955993
 
upsideguy said:
Yes, I do love France, particularly in the summer. Germany, Norway, Austria, Italy and Great Britain are pretty cool as well. Great to visit each, but I would prefer to live in Colorado, as I do.

As far as what I like about Obama; I am a Democrat. I trust his core values more than those of the Republicans. I do think the Republicans are somewhere between clueless and cavilier about the US economy. The idea that cutting taxes on the wealthy leads to prosperity is somewhere between bad theory and complete silliness. Romney has the same economic and foreign policy of GW, generally considered one of America's worst presidents.

Historical rankings of Presidents of the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Frankly, I think Obama accomplished quite a bit despite having heavy ankle weights while treading water where the seas are eight feet deep. I posted that in another thread. Enjoy.

http://www.debatepolitics.com/2012-...atest-swing-state-polls-8.html#post1060955993
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well thank you for taking the time to try to show any merit in Obama.. suffice to say Obama is a rancid loser, the worst and history will shread Obama as the Trojna Horse of the Jihad against the core of the USA
 
Moral of the story anything that goes against Travis' very narrow ideology is a lie.
 
Travis007 said:
well thank you for taking the time to try to show any merit in Obama.. suffice to say Obama is a rancid loser, the worst and history will shread Obama as the Trojna Horse of the Jihad against the core of the USA
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Wow! Frankly, I am very disappointed in you Travis. While I did not agree with your politics at all, up to now I thought you were a rational, intelligent (albeit politically misguided), reasonably well-informed individual. Jihad??? You got me. I was wrong.
 
areafiftyone said:
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed through the day:

Florida: Obama 53%, Romney 44% ( NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 46% ( InsiderAdvantage)

Ohio: Obama 53%, Romney 43% ( NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)

Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, Romney 42% ( NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac)

Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, Romney 43% ( Franklin & Marshall)


Will be updated here throughout the day: Taegan Goddard's Political Wire
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Ouch the Kenyan born is going to win again. I love it. :)
 
Travis007 said:
well thank you for taking the time to try to show any merit in Obama.. suffice to say Obama is a rancid loser, the worst and history will shread Obama as the Trojna Horse of the Jihad against the core of the USA
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Wow.....you mad much?
 
upsideguy said:
Yes, I do love France, particularly in the summer. Germany, Norway, Austria, Italy and Great Britain are pretty cool as well. Great to visit each, but I would prefer to live in Colorado, as I do.

As far as what I like about Obama; I am a Democrat. I trust his core values more than those of the Republicans. I do think the Republicans are somewhere between clueless and cavilier about the US economy. The idea that cutting taxes on the wealthy leads to prosperity is somewhere between bad theory and complete silliness. Romney has the same economic and foreign policy of GW, generally considered one of America's worst presidents.

Historical rankings of Presidents of the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Frankly, I think Obama accomplished quite a bit despite having heavy ankle weights while treading water where the seas are eight feet deep. I posted that in another thread. Enjoy.

http://www.debatepolitics.com/2012-...atest-swing-state-polls-8.html#post1060955993
Click to expand...

I like france too. Great place to visit. :)
 
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