Romney has a shot to do it without OH perhaps but it’d be nearly impossible with out FL, and there just aren’t enough EVs in play to cover Obama landing both those two (because PA isn’t in play). Or Obama winning both OH and VA, IMO.
None of the polls matter until the debates anyways.
Agree. In order to have a chance at this point Romney has to knock the debates out of the park. If he does, it's a whole new ball game.
Yes. I see where my post isn’t clear on that, that is what I meant.Its even tighter than that.... Obama wins with Florida alone, even if Romney gets Ohio and ALL of the toss ups.
Effectively, yup.Obama wins with Ohio and one other state;
What it boils down to is that Romney needs so many states to move that he really needs a nationwide shift. He’s still too far behind nationwide to have a reasonable chance to finesse a win out, and is so thin on states where he is effectively a lock that he runs very real chance of not breaking 200 EV.Obama wins with Virginia+Nevada+New Hampshire; even if Romney takes Florida plus Ohio and ALL of the other toss ups. Unless Romney can somehow get PA, MI or WI (and even then) Romney is walking a very, very narrow bridge…and he is far, far more likely than not to fall.
He's ****ed, then. It seems that recently all he has to do is open his mouth and he says something wrong.
Agree. In order to have a chance at this point Romney has to knock the debates out of the park. If he does, it's a whole new ball game.
There are a number of ways for them to add up to 269 each. I’m not sure what the most likely are this year (“most likely” being very relative term at the moment). Probably that RCP map above with Obama adding only OH and NH to the ones they already have defaulting to blue.There is a scenario in in a two person race where neither one gets the 270 but I forget what it is due to those states that apportion their EC votes.
This poll oversampled democrats by 9 points. Every Washington Post/ABC poll that has been done this cycle has over represented dems. Their new poll today on Obama up 4 in Florida oversampled dems by 10.
This poll oversampled democrats by 9 points. Every Washington Post/ABC poll that has been done this cycle has over represented dems. Their new poll today on Obama up 4 in Florida oversampled dems by 10.
FLORIDA: Obama 53 - Romney 44
OHIO: Obama 53 - Romney 43
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 54 - Romney 42
Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * September 26, 2012 * Obama Has Big Leads In Florida - Quinnipiac University – Hamden, Connecticut
FLORIDA: Obama 53 - Romney 44
OHIO: Obama 53 - Romney 43
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 54 - Romney 42
Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * September 26, 2012 * Obama Has Big Leads In Florida - Quinnipiac University – Hamden, Connecticut
Ohio
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 26% 326
Democrat 35 387
Independent 35 397
Florida
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 27% 344
Democrat 36 417
Independent 33 387
So the demographics (from your source) of this poll are:
Notice how the difference in R/D percentages is close to the party advantage the poll displays. One can argue that I am trying to see sunlight through the clouds but only one who watches clouds would discount this obvious disparity as legitimate...
and as I said earlier, polls are for strippers...
Participants in a poll are all randomly selected, so if there are more D's than R's it means more of them prefer to be identified that way. At this point Romney is losing it, deal with that!!!