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Can Romney Win Without Ohio, President Obama Leads by 8 Among Likely Voters?

Silly rabbit...polls are for strippers...
 
None of the polls matter until the debates anyways.
 
If Obama wins Ohio then Romney will need to win every single battleground state which will probably be unlikely. I say Romney NEEDS to win Ohio and Florida and then he can choose some others to get to 270
 
Romney has a shot to do it without OH perhaps but it’d be nearly impossible with out FL, and there just aren’t enough EVs in play to cover Obama landing both those two (because PA isn’t in play). Or Obama winning both OH and VA, IMO.
 
Romney has a shot to do it without OH perhaps but it’d be nearly impossible with out FL, and there just aren’t enough EVs in play to cover Obama landing both those two (because PA isn’t in play). Or Obama winning both OH and VA, IMO.

Its even tighter than that.... Obama wins with Florida alone, even if Romney gets Ohio and ALL of the toss ups. Obama wins with Ohio and one other state; even if Romney gets Florida and ALL of the other toss ups. Obama wins with Virginia+Nevada+New Hampshire; even if Romney takes Florida plus Ohio and ALL of the other toss ups.

Unless Romney can somehow get PA, MI or WI (and even then) Romney is walking a very, very narrow bridge....and he is far, far more likely than not to fall.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Obama vs. Romney Create Your Own Electoral Map
 
None of the polls matter until the debates anyways.

Agree. In order to have a chance at this point Romney has to knock the debates out of the park. If he does, it's a whole new ball game.
 
I doubt that Obama will win Ohio by 8...but the RCP average does have him ahead by 4.4 points in Ohio, which is a fairly comfortable lead at this stage of the campaign. If Obama wins Ohio, then Romney essentially has no room for error and has to run the table on the other seven swing states: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. As of today, Obama leads in all of them.
 
Without Ohio there's almost no chance for Romney. He'd have to win NH, VA, NC, IA, CO, and one of the less likely states to win without it. Luckily, there is still some time left to make it up, although with each day that goes by there is less of a chance.
 
There is a scenario in in a two person race where neither one gets the 270 but I forget what it is due to those states that apportion their EC votes.

I distrust Washington Post polls this year. They just seem to be way off others always in the DNC favor. There is something squirrelly happening in polling across the board and I have yet to hear a logical explanation why. I don't think it is just cellphones v. no cellphones in the poll.
 
Agree. In order to have a chance at this point Romney has to knock the debates out of the park. If he does, it's a whole new ball game.

He's ****ed, then. It seems that recently all he has to do is open his mouth and he says something wrong.
 
Its even tighter than that.... Obama wins with Florida alone, even if Romney gets Ohio and ALL of the toss ups.
Yes. I see where my post isn’t clear on that, that is what I meant.

Obama wins with Ohio and one other state;
Effectively, yup.
Obama wins with Virginia+Nevada+New Hampshire; even if Romney takes Florida plus Ohio and ALL of the other toss ups. Unless Romney can somehow get PA, MI or WI (and even then) Romney is walking a very, very narrow bridge…and he is far, far more likely than not to fall.
What it boils down to is that Romney needs so many states to move that he really needs a nationwide shift. He’s still too far behind nationwide to have a reasonable chance to finesse a win out, and is so thin on states where he is effectively a lock that he runs very real chance of not breaking 200 EV.
 
He's ****ed, then. It seems that recently all he has to do is open his mouth and he says something wrong.

I don't disagree. Frankly, at this point I think it's over.
 
Agree. In order to have a chance at this point Romney has to knock the debates out of the park. If he does, it's a whole new ball game.

I don't think so, I don't think it needs to be knocked out of the park at all.
 
There is a scenario in in a two person race where neither one gets the 270 but I forget what it is due to those states that apportion their EC votes.
There are a number of ways for them to add up to 269 each. I’m not sure what the most likely are this year (“most likely” being very relative term at the moment). Probably that RCP map above with Obama adding only OH and NH to the ones they already have defaulting to blue.

If Romney gets that close the tie will likely go to him because the House of Reps has the hammer and if Romney gets that close the GOP will have almost certainly held the House.
 
This poll oversampled democrats by 9 points. Every Washington Post/ABC poll that has been done this cycle has over represented dems. Their new poll today on Obama up 4 in Florida oversampled dems by 10.
 
This poll oversampled democrats by 9 points. Every Washington Post/ABC poll that has been done this cycle has over represented dems. Their new poll today on Obama up 4 in Florida oversampled dems by 10.

...and you are a statistician with a particular emphasis on opinion polling; a Rush Limbaugh listener; just talking from an orafice that otherwise makes odd sounds; can actually back up this statement from a source other than from a political porn site or just in the early stages of grief?
 
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This poll oversampled democrats by 9 points. Every Washington Post/ABC poll that has been done this cycle has over represented dems. Their new poll today on Obama up 4 in Florida oversampled dems by 10.

Wow took a while for the usual righting excuses to get into this thread. Even Romney's people are making these excuses now.. so the polls must be true then.
 

So the demographics (from your source) of this poll are:

Ohio
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 26% 326
Democrat 35 387
Independent 35 397

Florida
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 27% 344
Democrat 36 417
Independent 33 387

Notice how the difference in R/D percentages is close to the party advantage the poll displays. One can argue that I am trying to see sunlight through the clouds but only one who watches clouds would discount this obvious disparity as legitimate...

and as I said earlier, polls are for strippers...
 
So the demographics (from your source) of this poll are:



Notice how the difference in R/D percentages is close to the party advantage the poll displays. One can argue that I am trying to see sunlight through the clouds but only one who watches clouds would discount this obvious disparity as legitimate...

and as I said earlier, polls are for strippers...

Participants in a poll are all randomly selected, so if there are more D's than R's it means more of them prefer to be identified that way. At this point Romney is losing it, deal with that!!!
 
Participants in a poll are all randomly selected, so if there are more D's than R's it means more of them prefer to be identified that way. At this point Romney is losing it, deal with that!!!

Random or not you cannot refute that the spread of the demographics has a definite effect on the results of the poll.

As to 'Romney is losing it' I have predicted for quite some time that he WILL lose, nothing to 'deal with'. I predicted that the House and Senate race will get very little attention, which has so far been the case. I also predicted that the GOP will retain the House, win a non-2/3 majority of the Senate AND BHO will get re-elected...and this orientation is what I desire the most, balanced power. I will be greatly displeased if the GOP gains Congress AND Romney wins for which I will be here on DP RAILING you Lib/Dem's for failing to do you part...
 
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