For the provisions of the Affordable Care Act related to health insurance coverage, CBO and JCT’s latest estimates are quite similar to
the estimates we released when the legislation was being considered in March 2010. The following figure shows CBO and JCT’s projections of the effects of the ACA on
the number of people who will be uninsured or will receive insurance coverage through employer-sponsored insurance (ESI), insurance exchanges, or Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP). Although the latest projections extend the original ones by three years (corresponding to the shift in the regular 10-year projection period since the ACA was first being developed), the projections for each given year have changed little, on net, since March 2010.
The estimated
budgetary impact of the coverage provisions has also changed little. The following figure shows CBO and JCT’s projections of the net cost to the federal government of the insurance coverage provisions of the ACA. Again, the latest projections extend the original ones by three years, but the projections for each given year have changed little, on net, since March 2010.