How an Odds Maker Sees the Election

I thought this was a fun read:

Las Vegas Oddsmaker Predicts Obama Will Have a Landslide Loss

Las Vegas Oddsmaker Wayne Allyn Root predicted that Barack Obama will suffer a massive loss in the General Election even though the current polls do not show Obama necessarily losing. Root laid out the rationale for his prediction. He does have a history of successful political predictions.

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.


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Root then went on to an analysis of specific groups of voters, Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.”[?] Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

It is still a long way to the General Election, and much can happen. The classified military material leaked to the news media, Obama all but admitting the White House has major things to hide in Fast and Furious, and a disintegrating US and European economy will add heavily to the disfavor of the American people for Barack Obama.​

It will become increasingly apparent that Barack Obama can stay in office only if the General Election does not take place.

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What do you think about his voting block analysis?

Although the Rubio prediction is clearly not gonna happen I do see how his prediction can easily come true for the rest.

It's very interesting and hard to argue with the logic. Of course the author, Mr. Root, is a former classmate of Obama's at Columbia. According to Mr. Root neither he nor anyone he attended school with ever heard of or met classmate Obama.
But you have to wonder how desperate the Obama campaign is when they have given Bill Clinton such a prominent roll at the convention in spite of the fact that Clinton refuses to allow them to "preview" his speech.
Slick Willie has the potential to steal the entire convention.

If he's a Las Vegas oddsmaker and he's predicting a landslide Obama loss, I'd love to take him up on that bet. At this point, Obama is a solid favorite to win reelection. A best-case scenario for Mitt Romney is to narrowly win the election by capturing most of the swing states (many of which currently show Obama with a small lead). It'll be virtually impossible for Romney to get more than about 300 electoral votes, so I find a landslide Obama loss exceedingly unlikely.

And despite his analysis of various voting blocs and what he thinks they will do, the polls do not seem to be confirming his theory. Depending on the week, Obama has anywhere from a 1 to 4 point lead in the polls. Even now, just after the RNC convention has finished and Mitt Romney should be at his peak polling numbers for the election cycle, he's only been able to pull into a tie with Obama. If all those voting blocs are going to desert Obama in the numbers that Mr. Root seems to think they are, then they're telling pollsters something quite different.

Anyone know where I can place a cash wager with Mr. Root?

It makes some good points. I think a group that often get ignored is the silent majority. These are the people that aren't screaming their political ideas from the rooftops but when asked one on one they are for traditional American values.
I have even seen the celebrities who are a group that is for the most part very liberal, plenty of them have stated they voted for Obama before but will not again.
Obama may not lose by a landslide but I fill pretty confident the voter enthusiasm will be no where near what it was last election.

And like the post above I haven't met anyone that did not vote for Obama before but has stated that they will this time.

MaggieD said:

I thought this was a fun read:



What do you think about his voting block analysis?

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The problem I have with his voting block analysis is that the polls do not show the level of support among the voting groups that Wayne Allen Root predicts. Turnout might be down among them, but Hispanics, Blacks, Jewish voters, and the youth vote still seem to be pretty high on Obama among the ones that are voting. The key isn't predicting what percentage of a voter group will vote for Obama, as the polls generally do a pretty good job at predicting that, but what the various block's turnout is compared to 2008. I just don't agree with Root's methods here, and I would be very surprised if Romney wins in a landslide, without a significant polling shift.

Ladies & Gentlemen,

Place your bets. Intrade - Home

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
58.2%
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Today's Change: -$0.02 (-0.3%)

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012
41.5%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $4.15 / share
Today's Change: -$0.01 (-0.2%)

Paratrooper said:

It makes some good points. I think a group that often get ignored is the silent majority. These are the people that aren't screaming their political ideas from the rooftops but when asked one on one they are for traditional American values.
I have even seen the celebrities who are a group that is for the most part very liberal, plenty of them have stated they voted for Obama before but will not again.
Obama may not lose by a landslide but I fill pretty confident the voter enthusiasm will be no where near what it was last election.

And like the post above I haven't met anyone that did not vote for Obama before but has stated that they will this time.

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I agree with you about the voter enthusiasm part. It's definitely down from '08 and could very well propel Romney to victory. I do take a little bit of issue for the last part though. While it is true that I know no one who was eligible to vote in '08 voting for Obama this time, it is important to remember that the newest block of voters in the past four years whether through immigration or turning 18, does favor Obama in the election. That's the thing I think most people who make your argument forget about, when it seems like Obama should have lost too much support to win re-election.

Its not gonna be a landslide either way, as much as a I'd like it to be. I'm back in forth and have been since Romney clinched the nomination last spring.

Right now, I think Romney has the momentum. Obama's campaign is hemorrhaging cash. He's pretty much begging for money these days. They spent WAY too much in July/August. This is happening right as Romney is unlocking his war chest. Many don't realize, but all the money that Romney has raised since April has pretty much been idle as it was general election funds, not primary funds which can't be interchanged or combined due to FEC rules.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

538 forecast(top pollster analysis):

If election was held now, Obama 293.3 Electoral Votes, Romney 244.7
Obama 71.1 % chance winning, Romney 28.9%

Forecast for Nov 6:

Obama 308.2 Electoral votes, Romney 229.8
Obama chance of winning 74.8, Romney 25.2.

That is computer modeled based on polling data, not some one's gut feelings.

Maggie, you forgot to post a link - here's just one, I found several others who posted the same thing.

Lubbock Online

but the original comes from a Townhall.com post, where Mr Root is a regular columnist - which just might indicate his personal political preferences. Then there is the fact that the column and its predictions are from May of this year. There are more recent polls and odds on just who is favoured at this time.

Interesting blocs listed by Mr Root

Black voters: Republicans are afraid of this group as can be seen by the numerous examples of voter suppression that are taking place. Yes, the African American community has been hit hard by the economy but the GOP has shown noting that would draw their votes. They may just stay home on election day, not a problem if they voted early as is allowed in some states.

Hispanic voters: Not very likely that many Hispanic voters will go for the Republican candidate considering the attitudes seen in far too many of the GOP

Jewish voters: It is a Republican meme that Obama has been a poor friend of Israel and this has caused some Jewish voters, and some radical evangelicals of the Hagee ilk, to change parties

Youth voters: This is an everchanging demographic which apparently Mr Root doesn't grasp - every year more people turn 18 and generally this is a group that will vote for the black guy over the boring old white guy.

Catholic voters: This group has a large overlap with the Hispanic voters so it is a bit difficult to separate out the older, blue collar worker types who are also Catholic and the female voters who may be Catholic but as data shows time after time, don't follow church teachings on birth control. Difficult to call it as simply as Mr Root would wish to say it is.


That's enuff - he had a nice little bit of political talk and tried to mix it with his gambling knowledge. Was his Las Vegas connection relevant in a discussion of potential votes? Who knows?

Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land.

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The Republicans I know, which admittedly is a small sample, tend to fall into the Christian Republican category. My mom would never vote for Romney in a million years because she feels Mormonism isn't a Christian religion. Seems a bold statement to say that nobody who voted for McCain 4 years ago is going to switch. You would have to make the assumption that Romney is equal or better than McCain in every way. If he isn't, someone who values that thing may decide Obama is slightly better in that area than Romney is, even though they liked McCain over Obama.