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How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney?

CONSagainROMNEY

CONSagainROMNEY

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I could see Romney jumping anywhere from 4 to 8 points this week - which would be enough to turn this back into a race.
Picking Ryan may be enough to make Romney acceptible to Right Wing Conservatives...and it should give Romney a nice bounce in the polls. Of course this will only last a week or two and then once Romney starts opening his mouth again he'll start falling again...

In some ways, chosing Ryan may only make ROmney look worse in the eyes of Conservatives. To see a true conservative next to a RINO, a liberal in Republican's clothing, might only go to highlight how terrible a candidate is to represent the Republican Party. Some of us might just sit this year out and hope to see Ryan in '16 as a POTUS candidate.
 
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Re: How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney

CONSagainROMNEY said:
I could see Romney jumping anywhere from 4 to 8 points this week - which would be enough to turn this back into a race.
Picking Ryan may be enough to make Romney acceptible to Right Wing Conservatives...and it should give Romney a nice bounce in the polls. Of course this will only last a week or two and then once Romney starts opening his mouth again he'll start falling again...

In some ways, chosing Ryan may only make ROmney look worse in the eyes of Conservatives. To see a true conservative next to a RINO, a liberal in Republican's clothing, might only go to highlight how terrible a candidate is to represent the Republican Party. Some of us might just sit this year out and hope to see Ryan in '16 as a POTUS candidate.
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What are we debating?
 
Re: How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney

Born Free said:
What are we debating?
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How much of a boost ROmney will get this week because of his choosing Ryan. Also, how Romney can maintain that boost - or will it only be temporary?
 
Re: How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney

As this cahrt shows, assuming it displays properly, is that anything over 5 % is unlikely.

%7BA6497B20-B53E-486C-B133-99B85DCFB54B%7D07302012_VP_Bump_Chart.jpg


I would not be surprised at a 2 to 4 % in the general, but the thing to watch is the swing state polls.
 
Re: How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney

CONSagainROMNEY said:
I could see Romney jumping anywhere from 4 to 8 points this week - which would be enough to turn this back into a race.
Picking Ryan may be enough to make Romney acceptible to Right Wing Conservatives...and it should give Romney a nice bounce in the polls. Of course this will only last a week or two and then once Romney starts opening his mouth again he'll start falling again...

In some ways, chosing Ryan may only make ROmney look worse in the eyes of Conservatives. To see a true conservative next to a RINO, a liberal in Republican's clothing, might only go to highlight how terrible a candidate is to represent the Republican Party. Some of us might just sit this year out and hope to see Ryan in '16 as a POTUS candidate.
Click to expand...

There will be a bump as there always is in these kinds of events. The next thing will be people exploring what Ryan thinks about life and the debates based on that. By Nov the viewpoint debates will likely die down.

The real question is whether this bump is long term or not. To answer that, it depends on whether the campaign is able to reinvent itself with this announcement.
 
Re: How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney

CONSagainROMNEY said:
I could see Romney jumping anywhere from 4 to 8 points this week - which would be enough to turn this back into a race.
Picking Ryan may be enough to make Romney acceptible to Right Wing Conservatives...and it should give Romney a nice bounce in the polls. Of course this will only last a week or two and then once Romney starts opening his mouth again he'll start falling again...

In some ways, chosing Ryan may only make ROmney look worse in the eyes of Conservatives. To see a true conservative next to a RINO, a liberal in Republican's clothing, might only go to highlight how terrible a candidate is to represent the Republican Party. Some of us might just sit this year out and hope to see Ryan in '16 as a POTUS candidate.
Click to expand...

Right, all those right wing conservatives are going to switch their vote from Obama because of Ryan. Desperate for good news I guess.
I expect a drop in Romney's poll numbers, we will see.
 
Re: How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney

iguanaman said:
Right, all those right wing conservatives are going to switch their vote from Obama because of Ryan. Desperate for good news I guess.
I expect a drop in Romney's poll numbers, we will see.
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Wow, we must live in different worlds. How in the world do you see ROmney's poll numbers going down? The latest FOX poll before announcing Ryan had him at only 40%. Even Palin didnt make McCain's numbers go down in '08! And Ryan is much better than her.
 
Re: How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney

Initially it will give him a bump...I would say in the 3-5% range. However, once people find out who Paul Ryan is and what his ideas are, Mitts numbers will drop lower
 
Re: How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney

megaprogman said:
The real question is whether this bump is long term or not. To answer that, it depends on whether the campaign is able to reinvent itself with this announcement.
Click to expand...

Mitt will have to pull out his magic Etch-a-Sketch more than once in the next few months in order to reinvent himself.
 
Re: How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney

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Re: How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney

Even though VP picks do move the polls, those moves are largely temporary. It's no different than the bump that candidates get after the convention. Slight bump, then back to normal. The only real gain Romney will get from picking Ryan is a small bump (Nate Silver says on average 2 pts) in Wisconsin.

Aug. 11: Will Ryan Pick Move the Polls? - NYTimes.com
 
Re: How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney

there will be a bump by 2-4 points and that is it. Remember Ryan was already labeled as medicare killer before given the VP nominee.
 
Re: How much of a boost in the polls this week will the Ryan announcement give Romney

roughdraft274 said:
Even though VP picks do move the polls, those moves are largely temporary. It's no different than the bump that candidates get after the convention. Slight bump, then back to normal. The only real gain Romney will get from picking Ryan is a small bump (Nate Silver says on average 2 pts) in Wisconsin.

Aug. 11: Will Ryan Pick Move the Polls? - NYTimes.com
Click to expand...

Wisconsin has gone Democrat every POTUS election since Reagan in '84 I believe. Yet it seems to be the breeding ground for this idea of cutting entitlements and cutting retirements and benefits to government employees - IF Ryan has been able to explain these things to the people of Wisconsin, then mabe he can explain it to the rest of the nation as well. There are two obstacles for him however:
1) How is his idea of privatizing medicare/medicaid better than what we have now
2) How can he justify voting to give Big Oil companies billions of dollars in subsidites and still call himself a fiscal conservative???
 
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