Portman: I think I'll be staying in the Senate

Ohio Sen. Rob Portman threw cold water on the idea of becoming Mitt Romney's running mate on Wednesday, saying he thinks he'll "end up staying" in the Senate. "I just got elected two years ago. I think that's where I'm going to end up staying," Portman said when asked his thoughts about possibly leaving the Senate and becoming vice president...

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If true, I'm thinking that means it's Ryan.

I'm thinkin this is a diversion statement.

Still -- Pawlenty.

AdamT said:

Still -- Pawlenty.

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Why Pawlenty?

cpwill said:

If true, I'm thinking that means it's Ryan.

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I dearly hope and pray you are correct. Portman helps deliver the important electoral votes of Ohio to Romney. Rubio helps deliver the important electoral votes of Florida to Romney and could help build with other Latino voters across the nation.

All Ryan does is cost him the election.

rocket88 said:

Why Pawlenty?

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By default. He's uncontroversial, white, male, as dull as Romney.... Ryan is too polarizing and more interesting than Romney. Rubio is too inexperienced, has vetting problems, and is also more interesting than Romney.

AdamT said:

By default. He's uncontroversial, white, male, as dull as Romney.... Ryan is too polarizing and more interesting than Romney. Rubio is too inexperienced, has vetting problems, and is also more interesting than Romney.

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Pawlenty might be boring but he, like Romney has skeleton's in the closet. His record in Minnesota is hardly impressive, plus it most likely wont deliver Minnesota to Romney.

cpwill said:

If true, I'm thinking that means it's Ryan.

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At this stage I would not read too much into the denials and comments like this. Portman and Pawlenty are the odds on favorites to be chosen, and both would almost certainly accept if asked. Ryan is a polarizing, controversial figure which is the exact last thing Romney needs.

I heard Hillary is going to get the nod.

With as precious as seats in the legislature are at the moment, it makes absolutely no sense to pick a seated legislator for VP...

It should be a former Governor or someone who has worked outside of Government...

And in light of the recent spotlight being put on the foreign affairs issues...

Former NY Mayor Rudi Giuliani would be an EXCELLENT choice... With Christie and Giuliani making havoc in NJ, PA, CT, FL etc. this election becomes interesting... and you could likely bring along the support of Joe Liebermen as well...

He probably smells a loss in November and doesn't want to bother..

picking pawlenty or portman would be declaring defeat. I hope the Romney team is smarter than that.

Redress said:

At this stage I would not read too much into the denials and comments like this. Portman and Pawlenty are the odds on favorites to be chosen, and both would almost certainly accept if asked. Ryan is a polarizing, controversial figure which is the exact last thing Romney needs.

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I think the "polarizing, divisive" bit with Ryan has been overhyped - people who really believe in it's natural occurrence (see: Haymarket) would be disappointed. Ryan's Medicare plan is now bipartisan (the same cannot be said of the Presidents' plan to cut Medicare expenditures), his tax plan closely mirrors that of the Presidents own bi-partisan Debt Reduction Committee, and he regularly wins reelection in a district that voted for Obama in 2008. He is used to (and good at) talking to skeptics.

Furthermore, the American people are more grown up, I think, than many give them credit for. They are able to have an adult conversation on our looming fiscal crises and our unsustainable entitlements without freaking out and committing national fiscal suicide.

Picking Ryan immediately puts Romney back in the drivers' seat of the campaign, with the Obama camp being forced to repeatedly attack Republican ideas, highlighting the lack of their own. Obama does not want to spend a lot of time talking publicly about what he would do to reduce entitlement expenditures.

Anywho, as a practical matter, Romney is going to be attacked with MediScare anyway. Republicans hate everyone's granny and autistic kids, and want them all to die. Best to have the guy best suited to defending the GOP platform out front and center doing so.

Don't get me wrong, it's a gamble; but like all such gambles, it increases the pay-off.

cpwill said:

I think the "polarizing, divisive" bit with Ryan has been overhyped - people who really believe in it's natural occurrence (see: Haymarket) would be disappointed. Ryan's Medicare plan is now bipartisan (the same cannot be said of the Presidents' plan to cut Medicare expenditures), his tax plan closely mirrors that of the Presidents own bi-partisan Debt Reduction Committee, and he regularly wins reelection in a district that voted for Obama in 2008. He is used to (and good at) talking to skeptics.

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I would like to see some documentation of the bipartisan support claim, since all I can find is one democrat actually supporting it. His tax plan is majorly different than Simpson Bowles(which called for, among other things, increasing the progressiveness of the tax system), and his spending plans are nothing at all like Simpson Bowles(you do know that the debt reduction committee recommendation is a package, and not just about taxes?).

Furthermore, the American people are more grown up, I think, than many give them credit for. They are able to have an adult conversation on our looming fiscal crises and our unsustainable entitlements without freaking out and committing national fiscal suicide.

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Which has nothing to do with whether or not they will like Ryan Medicare plan. You can have an adult conversation and disagree with his plan. And if you do not think his plan is polarizing and controversial, you are fooling yourself. And, oddly, Simpson Bowles had some grown up suggestions for reforming Medicare that where nothing like the Ryan plan.

Picking Ryan immediately puts Romney back in the drivers' seat of the campaign, with the Obama camp being forced to repeatedly attack Republican ideas, highlighting the lack of their own. Obama does not want to spend a lot of time talking publicly about what he would do to reduce entitlement expenditures.

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Ryan and republicans are easy to attack. Congress has approval ratings somewhere in the neighborhood of the black plague. Just saying no and passing sure to fail bills is not an idea. Claiming democrats have no ideas when they have made significant changes the last 4 years is silly. Picking Ryan does not put Romney in the drivers seat, it puts him on the defensive.

Anywho, as a practical matter, Romney is going to be attacked with MediScare anyway. Republicans hate everyone's granny and autistic kids, and want them all to die. Best to have the guy best suited to defending the GOP platform out front and center doing so.

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And Obama is gutting welfare work requirements and is a kenyan commie. Any one crying about only one sides unfair, negative attacks this election year is totally blinding themselves to reality.

Don't get me wrong, it's a gamble; but like all such gambles, it increases the pay-off.

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It is a gamble with a small upside and big downside. Even if he turns Wisconsin for Romney, that does not win things for Romney, while the potential for costing a state like Florida is real.

The problem with Ryan is he doesn't add much to the ticket...

Ryan may not even be able to pull in WI...

Hardline conservatives are either so far anti-Obama or so anti-Romney that the VP candidate won't sway them either way...

This now has to come down to Geography of it...

FL is such a key battleground... and with the way FL is filled with former NYers (a lot of which are jewish)... Romney needs to solidify his push with that part of the FL crowd...

He also needs someone who balances his strength on the economy, with some foreign experience... Afterall, the event of a Vice President stepping into duty most often would happen in a time with a need for security and stability...


David Petraeus
Condoleeza Rice
and
Rudi Giuliani
who by virtue of the others insistence on not running suddenly became the top potential VP candidate...

Giuliani could tip the balance in FL, and potentially PA, NJ as well...

All the retirees in FL from MA, MI, and NY would likely tip the popularity scale in FL to a Romney/Giuliani ticket...

The marriage blunders have mostly blown over, and anyone who isn't aware of them is likely not voting anyway... besides, the party of slick willy, elliot spitzer, and jonathan edwards is hardly in a place to speak about extra marital affairs...

Most people nationwide still respect his handling of the 9/11 situation... but also he was well known for cleaning up NYC and restoring it to prominence, as well as his time in the AGs office...

He certainly trumps Biden's working-class background and would be able to put Biden in his place during the VP debate...

It's also got the name recognition, high publicity to it... and would appeal to the center and independent crowd that this election will hinge on...

Redress said:

I would like to see some documentation of the bipartisan support claim, since all I can find is one democrat actually supporting it.

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It's the Ryan-Wyden plan. One Republican, one Democrat. Which is an adaptation of Ryan's earlier work, which was in the Ryan-Rivlin plan. Again, one Republican, one Democrat. Ryan has a history of being able to bring independents and moderate Democrats on board with significant changes to our entitlement structure - a history that highlights the current administrations' failure to do so.

His tax plan is majorly different than Simpson Bowles(which called for, among other things, increasing the progressiveness of the tax system)

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Well, Simpson Bowles actually offered three different tax plans, but all of them were built on the same model that Ryan uses: lowering nominal rates while stripping out reductions.

Simpson Bowles offered three sets of tax brackets, depending on how much complexity you stripped out:

Ryan's last budget did the exact same thing that Simpson-Bowles did, and called for stripping out complexity while reducing nominal rates. Specifically, replacing the current 6 brackets not with three, but with two: 10% for all income below $100,000 and 25% for all income above that.

The President's plan, in contrast, is to either continue or increase current levels of complexity while also increasing nominal rates. The precise opposite of the approach recommended by his own Bi-Partisan Deficit Reduction Committee and used by Ryan.

and his spending plans are nothing at all like Simpson Bowles

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That is not correct. They recommended greater cuts to discretionary spending, and also proposed some changes to Social Security. However, when you look at what they did with Social Security (reducing expenditures on wealthier retirees in order to guarantee a minimum benefit to lower income retirees while reducing net expenditures), they were using the same kind of cost-shifting that you see in Ryan's call to make the Medicare benefit progressive. Furthermore, when you look at many of the particular spending cuts (reducing the federal workforce through attrition, pay freezes for federal workers, making government more efficient, eliminating congressional earmarks) they propose, they are things that are also part of Ryan's work as well.

Which has nothing to do with whether or not they will like Ryan Medicare plan.

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The real battle is convincing Americans that we need to have a serious debate about how to put our spending on a sustainable path - including our entitlements. Once that is done, I'm fairly certain that they will prefer the Ryan approach, which tilts benefits to lower-income retirees and puts them in charge of deciding what gets' cut to the President's approach, which cuts at a flat rate and puts a board in Washington in charge of what gets' stripped out. The trick is simply moving beyond the Presidents' Mediscare tactics into that adult conversation.

You can have an adult conversation and disagree with his plan.

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That is certainly true. However, there is plenty of polling out there that indicates that - once people are asked how to reform Medicare - that Ryan's basic proposal is either the more popular, or has ample room to become so.

Page two of this Kaiser Poll, for example, I find fascinating.

when asked:


70% of folks say to keep Medicare the way it is, while 25% say change it. However, keeping Medicare as it is isn't an option on the table this election - both parties intend to cut quite a bit of spending out of Medicare. once people who voted to "keep medicare the way it is" are presented with the caveat that "Today's Seniors Won't Be Affected By The Proposed Changes", 25% immediately shift their position, and only 43% are left continuing to vote for "Keep Medicare As It Is". That is, 43% of the original 70%, making for a total of only 30% of the populace.

Furthermore, it points out that when you point out to "Keep Medicare As It Is" respondents that Medicare risks going bankrupt, only 30% retain that position, and when you point out that "Under this proposal, private plans will compete for Seniors business and seniors will be able to choose plans based on cost, benefits, and availability", only 39% continue to argue for "Keep[ing] Medicare As It Is".

the three main republican arguments, when presented, shift 25% of the "Keep Medicare As It Is" populace instantly, with 38, 28, and 24% saying that they could be shifted by those arguments. When all three are presented together, we can probably imagine the effect is cumulative.

In contrast, when the three main Democrat Arguments are presented to the "Change Medicare" respondents, only 9, 10, and 12% change their positions, while only 14, 13, and 10% identify themselves as "could be shifted" by those arguments.

And if you do not think his plan is polarizing and controversial, you are fooling yourself.

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:shrug: if you call a bi partisan plan built on similar concepts as the President's own bi-partisan deficit reduction commission that garners significant support from the populace "polarizing and controversial". I tend to suspect it is fire-on-hair-inducing only among those who are ideologically committed to the left core, and they think that because they see it as the end of the world, that everyone else will, too.

Ryan and republicans are easy to attack. Congress has approval ratings somewhere in the neighborhood of the black plague. Just saying no and passing sure to fail bills is not an idea. Claiming democrats have no ideas when they have made significant changes the last 4 years is silly. Picking Ryan does not put Romney in the drivers seat, it puts him on the defensive.

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Democrats absolutely have put through some big changes. And a strong majority of likely voters think that Obama has changed the country for the worse. However, now Obama has shot his wad. He had his chance, and his supermajority, and he put through Stimulus and Obamacare.... and we got... crap. The only major part of his agenda that he missed was Cap-and-Trade. Now? He's facing a nation that needs a real growth jolt, and he's out of fresh ideas on how to do that. A third (fourth) attempt at fiscal stimulus? More monetary easing? Sit back, give it time, hope it all works out in the end?

Picking Ryan puts Romney's policy proposals front and center in the campaign, which is precisely what he needs. Democrats are indeed out of fresh ideas, which is why the Big Thing to come out of the Democrat Platform this year isn't some new entitlement reform or way to spur growth, but gay marriage and a 4.5% nominal income tax rate increase on upper income earners.

And Obama is gutting welfare work requirements and is a kenyan commie. Any one crying about only one sides unfair, negative attacks this election year is totally blinding themselves to reality.

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:roll: well that's a cute strawman, but it doesn't alter the fact that Democrats are going to come after Romney with Mediscare no matter who he picks. Better to have the best guy at defending the platform... defending the platform. You don't send your second-stringer to the Olympics.

It is a gamble with a small upside and big downside. Even if he turns Wisconsin for Romney, that does not win things for Romney, while the potential for costing a state like Florida is real.

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That depends on whether you think that winning the election is an end, rather than the means. And I think you are overestimating the potential for loss in Florida due to a Ryan pick - people forget that Rubio won that state campaigning explicitly on entitlement reform. America's seniors aren't as easily led as the Obama campaign is hoping they are.

cpwill said:

If true, I'm thinking that means it's Ryan.

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Good that assures a romney loss...Im all for ryan actually im cheerleading for him

lpast said:

Good that assures a romney loss...Im all for ryan actually im cheerleading for him

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Because you want the guy who has proposed deeper cuts in Medicare to win instead?

I was in a church yesterday and lit a votive candle for Ryan to be the VP pick. Lets hope all of cpwills theories get a chance to be tested in a real political environment.

It would be an early christmas for us dems.

IndepCentristMA said:

David Petraeus
Condoleeza Rice
and
Rudi Giuliani

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David Petraeus isn't interested and either of the other two names will lose Romney the election along with half of the Republican Party. Romney only just got the grudging support of conservatives. Spitting in their face isn't going to do him any favors.

haymarket said:

I was in a church yesterday and lit a votive candle for Ryan to be the VP pick. Lets hope all of cpwills theories get a chance to be tested in a real political environment.

It would be an early christmas for us dems.

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I think you risk being a sad little kid on Christmas morning.

cpwill said:

Because you want the guy who has proposed deeper cuts in Medicare to win instead?

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He wont win either...CPwill you dont seem to realize that america is rejecting your kind of attitude...because your dead wrong marine

lpast said:

He wont win either...CPwill you dont seem to realize that america is rejecting your kind of attitude...because your dead wrong marine

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I'm not. Both Ryan and the President propose reducing Medicare expenditures by capping the growth in the program to inflation +1%. The difference being that Ryan wouldn't start this cap for ten years, only apply to those 55 and below, and within that cap, he would shift resources away from wealthy retirees and to lower income ones. Obama has a flat rate, reducing expenditures on the poor and wealthy alike, and his cuts start in 2014, and for current Seniors.


You know how they told you you had to vote against the Ryan Budget in order to keep Medicare as it was?

Yeah. They lied.

cpwill said:

I'm not. Both Ryan and the President propose reducing Medicare expenditures by capping the growth in the program to inflation +1%. The difference being that Ryan wouldn't start this cap for ten years, only apply to those 55 and below, and within that cap, he would shift resources away from wealthy retirees and to lower income ones. Obama has a flat rate, reducing expenditures on the poor and wealthy alike, and his cuts start in 2014, and for current Seniors.

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Marine...America is rejecting the teaparty far right premise that its all the working class' fault the country is in debt...they are rejecting that everything Middleclass has broken the bank and that Public Workers are the true enemies of america along with their unions...They have rejected that the Super Rich and the Corporations are all of americas saviors and just have our best interests at heart. They have rejected that the far right has all the answsers.
The far right had a big chance here to take over everything...but they overshot their hand by miles. This disgusting attempt to buy this election by the Mega Rich has turned many off The Koch Brothers...Simon Adelson and YES the liberals also...they are spending billions to buy an election anyway they can.. After they raped this country out of greed and put all these americans out of work out of greed.
Cpwill sorry marine people are seeing it for what it really is....and I KNOW YOU KNOW Its true...you are far too intelligent to sit there and try to tell me...that you BELIEVE that corporations and outsourcing to china and stripping workers is a good thing for ummm workers...lol
The simple proof is...JUST LOOK AROUND DUDE and remember I love you marine and thank you

One more thing CPwill...Remember your hate thread on the babyboomers ? I do ....Babyboomers hate the young greedsters too btw and realize just how callous and greedy and self centered they are...and babyboomers are still the largest voting block in america and will be for a couple of more cycles...you will have to wait until your at least 40-45