OK, Liberal and Conservative Poll Bashers

CBS comes out with polls showing Obama ahead, and Liberals jump all over it, claiming this is the smoking gun that proves Obama will get 4 more years. And Rasmussen comes out with polls showing Romney ahead, and Conservatives jump all over it, claiming that Romney will unseat Obama.

Ruh, roh, what's this? CBS predicts a Romney win and the House of Ras predicts an Obama win?

What are the hyperpartisans on both sides going to do now?

Conservative: Rasmussen has abandoned American values and wants to bring Socialism to America, and they make Baby Jesus cry too. Who would have thunk it?

Liberal: CBS is a Nazi propaganda organization for the Republican Party. Shame on them.

LMAO. But seriously, will Liberals now embrace the House of Ras, and will Conservatives now embrace what they call the Communist Broadcasting System? As rabid as these partisans are, I am betting that they might. LOL.

Read this and make up an excuse. :mrgreen:

Personally I always give the most credence to the composite polls produced by RCP and Pollster, and even then it's way too early to read much into them.

If you're going to cite polling data I think the best way to provide an accurate picture of the current pulse is to use RCP's aggregate averages. They take the most recent available polls and average them.

I don't think using any one poll by itself, regardless of the source, will ever provide an accurate picture.

danarhea said:

CBS comes out with polls showing Obama ahead, and Liberals jump all over it, claiming this is the smoking gun that proves Obama will get 4 more years. And Rasmussen comes out with polls showing Romney ahead, and Conservatives jump all over it, claiming that Romney will unseat Obama.

Ruh, roh, what's this? CBS predicts a Romney win and the House of Ras predicts an Obama win?

What are the hyperpartisans on both sides going to do now?

Conservative: Rasmussen has abandoned American values and wants to bring Socialism to America, and they make Baby Jesus cry too. Who would have thunk it?

Liberal: CBS is a Nazi propaganda organization for the Republican Party. Shame on them.

LMAO. But seriously, will Liberals now embrace the House of Ras, and will Conservatives now embrace what they call the Communist Broadcasting System? As rabid as these partisans are, I am betting that they might. LOL.

Read this and make up an excuse. :mrgreen:

Click to expand...

There is a reason I use RCP. ALso note that the page you link to is for popular vote, which only somewhat impacts electoral college votes. A better page to start with is this one: RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map. Watch the states in the middle column to get a feel for how the election will go.

RCP doesn't actually do polling. They compile polling and average them out. Do like the site though, part of my "daily paper" reading.

I'd say most realistic polling has the race in a dead heat. Same place its been since Romney wrapped up the nomination.

They should illegalize politics. That way, all the polls are done right.

danarhea said:

CBS comes out with polls showing Obama ahead, and Liberals jump all over it, claiming this is the smoking gun that proves Obama will get 4 more years. And Rasmussen comes out with polls showing Romney ahead, and Conservatives jump all over it, claiming that Romney will unseat Obama.

Ruh, roh, what's this? CBS predicts a Romney win and the House of Ras predicts an Obama win?

What are the hyperpartisans on both sides going to do now?

Conservative: Rasmussen has abandoned American values and wants to bring Socialism to America, and they make Baby Jesus cry too. Who would have thunk it?

Liberal: CBS is a Nazi propaganda organization for the Republican Party. Shame on them.

LMAO. But seriously, will Liberals now embrace the House of Ras, and will Conservatives now embrace what they call the Communist Broadcasting System? As rabid as these partisans are, I am betting that they might. LOL.

Read this and make up an excuse. :mrgreen:

Click to expand...

Stop with the f----ng polls! They mean absolutely nothing

Here is the only poll I take seriously. Intrade - where you put your money and your mouth in the same place.

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
57.9%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $5.79 / share
Today's Change: -$0.03 (-0.5%)

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012
39.7%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $3.97 / share
Today's Change: +$0.01 (+0.3%)

Specklebang to be elected President in 2012
REDACTED

Fishstyx said:

RCP doesn't actually do polling. They compile polling and average them out. Do like the site though, part of my "daily paper" reading.

Click to expand...

Correct. In fact that is why they are so valuable, plus the great graphs.

I'd say most realistic polling has the race in a dead heat. Same place its been since Romney wrapped up the nomination.

Click to expand...

Popular vote yes, state voting no. Obama is looking better for electoral votes.

Nate Silver is about the only pollster I'm finding reliable.

:shrug: i think you just have to recognize what each poll does and what judgement calls it makes. what was the poll the other day that included a +19 advantage for Democrat Party Members? :roll: yet that goes into the RCP average just as a poll that mirrors affiliation on the ground.

Thats a daily Rasmussen tracking poll and its been all over the place, but it is the first time Obama has led for 2 days in a row they said. Wait till convention time, then we will have an actual race.

OpportunityCost said:

Thats a daily Rasmussen tracking poll and its been all over the place, but it is the first time Obama has led for 2 days in a row they said. Wait till convention time, then we will have an actual race.

Click to expand...

In RCP's composite poll Obama hasn't been behind since October 2011....

danarhea said:

CBS comes out with polls showing Obama ahead, and Liberals jump all over it, claiming this is the smoking gun that proves Obama will get 4 more years. And Rasmussen comes out with polls showing Romney ahead, and Conservatives jump all over it, claiming that Romney will unseat Obama.

Ruh, roh, what's this? CBS predicts a Romney win and the House of Ras predicts an Obama win?

What are the hyperpartisans on both sides going to do now?

Conservative: Rasmussen has abandoned American values and wants to bring Socialism to America, and they make Baby Jesus cry too. Who would have thunk it?

Liberal: CBS is a Nazi propaganda organization for the Republican Party. Shame on them.

LMAO. But seriously, will Liberals now embrace the House of Ras, and will Conservatives now embrace what they call the Communist Broadcasting System? As rabid as these partisans are, I am betting that they might. LOL.

Read this and make up an excuse. :mrgreen:

Click to expand...

Polls are only as good as the sample that was polled. Anytime weighting is introduced to the equation (ie. always) then there will be inherent flaws. For example, if the sample is 100 people, and 80 of those people are Democrats, then the poll is therefore worthless. Of course Democrats are going to come out on top. To counter the imbalance, weighting is applied to make some sense of the results. Professional pollsters such as Gallup, Rasmussen, Pew, Quinipiac have the weighting factor pretty well under control, although the results from their polls will be skewed as well. It's the nature of he business. However, partisan think tanks, individual polling by the Democratic/Republican Committee, polling by lobbyists, special interests, etc. are not to be relied on because the weighting will invariably be tied to an outcome that supports their cause.

I never rely on polls produced by media entities because we all know that the media leans liberal. Weighting to support their natural bent is a foregone conclusion in my book.