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Polls: Bain Attacks Fail to Shift Voters

cpwill

cpwill

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From the Right-leaning Rasmussen to the Left-leaning New York Times / CBS:

Forty-seven percent of registered voters nationwide who lean towards a candidate back Romney, while 46 percent support the president. Four percent are undecided. The 1 percentage point difference is within the survey's three-point margin of error...

The president's supporters are more likely to strongly back their candidate. Fifty-two percent strongly favor Mr. Obama, while just 29 percent of Romney voters strongly back the presumptive Republican nominee.

More than one in three Romney voters say they are supporting Romney primarily because they dislike Mr. Obama. Only eight percent of Obama supporters say their support for the president is tied to their dislike of Romney.

Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats when it comes to voting in this election, though just one in three registered voters overall are more enthusiastic than they were in the past. Roughly half of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic compared to past elections - up from 36 percent in March - while just 27 percent of Democrats say they same...

Fifty-four percent of registered voters cite the economy and jobs as "extremely" important in their presidential vote, more than any other issue. Here Romney has the edge: 49 percent of registered voters say he would do a better job handling the economy and jobs, while 41 percent cite Mr. Obama.


Romney is also seen as better on the federal budget deficit (50 percent to 36 percent), taxes (47 percent to 42 percent) and illegal immigration (46 percent to 38 percent)....
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Over the past few weeks, President Obama and his campaign team have launched a furious attack on Mitt Romney's record as head of Bain Capital, a highly successful venture capital firm.

There is clear evidence that the attacks have had some impact. Forty-one percent of voters now see Romney's record in the private sector primarily as a reason to vote for him, but an equal number see that record as a reason to vote against the GOP challenger. That negative perception is up 8 points over the past couple of months.


Yet while raising negative perceptions of Romney's record in business, the Bain attacks have failed to bring about any change in the overall race for the White House. For weeks, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has shown the president's support stuck between 44 percent and 46 percent every day. Romney's numbers are in a similar rut -- 44 percent to 47 percent...


Voters overwhelmingly think it's important to create an environment that encourages economic growth. Nearly as many believe it's important for the government to create an environment that ensures economic fairness. But if there's a choice to be made, voters have a very strong preference for making growth the priority. Sixty-two percent of voters hold that view, while just 30 percent think using government to ensure fairness is more important.


Republicans and unaffiliated voters see growth as more important. Democrats are evenly divided.


That's a perspective that puts the president squarely on the defensive. Most voters believe Obama places a higher value on ensuring economic fairness. Two-thirds think Romney shares the public priority placing economic growth at the top of the list...
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So yeah. Pretty much for the last couple of weeks, the Obama campaign has been preaching... to one half of the Democrat party. And they have been successful in shifting.... people that were already voting for him.


But hey, if Romney spends the next couple of months talking about economic growth, and Obama spends the next few months diving into the specifics of regulation involving SEC filings, I only want to encourage that. :D
 
:lol:

Now here’s the wild part: Romney’s up a point in a polling sample heavily (but not comically heavily) weighted to Democrats; the sample for registered voters splits 26.5 percent Republican, 32.6 percent Democrat, 40.8% Independent. That’s as not awful as some other samples, but that assumes the Democrats’ advantage is only slightly worse than on Election Day 2008.
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:lol: Except that 2008 was a historical outlier in party identification.

If you average out Party Identification for this year,the numbers are 27.67% Republican, and 29.78% Democrat.
 
They have spent in the neighborhood of $100million on the negative ads as well, a rate they cant maintain.

I guess now we wait and see what the October surprise is going to be.
 
Didn't Bain manufacture Jeeps? What's wrong with making Jeeps?
 
cpwill said:
So yeah. Pretty much for the last couple of weeks, the Obama campaign has been preaching... to one half of the Democrat party. And they have been successful in shifting.... people that were already voting for him.

But hey, if Romney spends the next couple of months talking about economic growth, and Obama spends the next few months diving into the specifics of regulation involving SEC filings, I only want to encourage that. :D
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CNN and Gov. Deval Patrick (D) Both Defend Bain Capital: "Not a bad company."

 
cpwill said:
From the Right-leaning Rasmussen to the Left-leaning New York Times / CBS:







So yeah. Pretty much for the last couple of weeks, the Obama campaign has been preaching... to one half of the Democrat party. And they have been successful in shifting.... people that were already voting for him.


But hey, if Romney spends the next couple of months talking about economic growth, and Obama spends the next few months diving into the specifics of regulation involving SEC filings, I only want to encourage that. :D
Click to expand...

It certainly didn't shift me. I thought Romney was the same as Obama before, and now I'm just even more convinced that he's the same as Obama now.
 
Shift from what?

Away from Obama?

He's leading in every poll and every swing state...
 
hazlnut said:
Shift from what?

Away from Obama?

He's leading in every poll and every swing state...
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I imagine shift FROM Romney, since it's looking at whether or not the Bain attacks had an effect on him in the polls
 
OpportunityCost said:
They have spent in the neighborhood of $100million on the negative ads as well, a rate they cant maintain.

I guess now we wait and see what the October surprise is going to be.
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They spent 12 million more last month than they brought in, a rate sustainable until March.
 
cpwill said:
From the Right-leaning Rasmussen to the Left-leaning New York Times / CBS:







So yeah. Pretty much for the last couple of weeks, the Obama campaign has been preaching... to one half of the Democrat party. And they have been successful in shifting.... people that were already voting for him.


But hey, if Romney spends the next couple of months talking about economic growth, and Obama spends the next few months diving into the specifics of regulation involving SEC filings, I only want to encourage that. :D
Click to expand...

Romney campaign expected to launch multipronged effort to rebut attacks – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

There is some acknowledgement inside the campaign, according to sources, that the attacks by the Obama re-election team have begun to drive up Romney's negative ratings. While the national horserace numbers have not moved, there is a sense that the underlying numbers are showing some changes–and not in a good way.
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Yup. And if you'll look at the polling data you will see that it is correct that those attacks have driven up Romney's negatives.

Among Democrats.
 
cpwill said:
Among Democrats.
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There are a number of democrats, generally your "Reagan Democrats" and "Blue Dog Democrats", who are disaffected with Obama and could be of great use to the Romney Campaign.

That's not saying he should release his returns...I still think that'd be a net drag. But it wouldn't be bad for the campaign to try and develop a strategy to combat it.
 
Zyphlin said:
There are a number of democrats, generally your "Reagan Democrats" and "Blue Dog Democrats", who are disaffected with Obama and could be of great use to the Romney Campaign.

That's not saying he should release his returns...I still think that'd be a net drag. But it wouldn't be bad for the campaign to try and develop a strategy to combat it.
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That was actually the point of the article that went over cpwill's head. Romney was going on the offensive to counteract the effect of the bain and tax attacks. Further, the polling referred to in the article was most likely intternal polling, not public polling(something both Romney and obama do, and cpwill complains about Obama doing). Right now there is not going to be any large shift in horse race polling(barring something dramatic) until closer to the election when the undecideds start to break one way or the other. Stuff like this is about putting negatives in mind. Further, the bigger thing this does is keep Obama controlling the nature of the political discussion, which does not give Romney as much of a chance to make up the ground he has to for the election.

And yes, Romney has nothing to gain politically from releasing the tax returns and it would be foolish politically to do so.
 
To be quite frank, the horrible wording of Obama in Roanoke (still cracks me up it happened in my home town), was a gigantic gift wrapped with a bow on it for the Romney camp.

On facebook, amongst friends, and pretty much every circle that isn't heavily political the discussion regarding that issue has been far more in view to me than the discussion regarding Romney's tax returns.

And I think the discussion regarding the differing level of importance on the Community/Individual is far more likely to be beneficial to Romney's camp than anything to do with the Tax Returns.

They definitely need to look at ways to fight back against it and try to counter act it, but at this point I think their best bet may be to try to grab an issue and run with it to try and continue to push the Tax Return's onto the back burner and into the realm of primarily being focused on by those politically inclined.
 
Zyphlin said:
To be quite frank, the horrible wording of Obama in Roanoke (still cracks me up it happened in my home town), was a gigantic gift wrapped with a bow on it for the Romney camp.

On facebook, amongst friends, and pretty much every circle that isn't heavily political the discussion regarding that issue has been far more in view to me than the discussion regarding Romney's tax returns.

And I think the discussion regarding the differing level of importance on the Community/Individual is far more likely to be beneficial to Romney's camp than anything to do with the Tax Returns.

They definitely need to look at ways to fight back against it and try to counter act it, but at this point I think their best bet may be to try to grab an issue and run with it to try and continue to push the Tax Return's onto the back burner and into the realm of primarily being focused on by those politically inclined.
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Absolutely. Obama gave Romney what he needed with that comment. It will be interesting to see the campaign narrative once the Batman shooting dies down. The point was not that it was still center discussion, but that it did keep the discussion away from anything harmful to Obama for a fair amount of time(plus laid the groundwork for later attacks, such as Romney's IRA). Trying to spin the Bain and tax return attacks as not working is kinda silly and flies in the face of all the evidence.
 
Zyphlin said:
To be quite frank, the horrible wording of Obama in Roanoke (still cracks me up it happened in my home town), was a gigantic gift wrapped with a bow on it for the Romney camp.

On facebook, amongst friends, and pretty much every circle that isn't heavily political the discussion regarding that issue has been far more in view to me than the discussion regarding Romney's tax returns.

And I think the discussion regarding the differing level of importance on the Community/Individual is far more likely to be beneficial to Romney's camp than anything to do with the Tax Returns.

They definitely need to look at ways to fight back against it and try to counter act it, but at this point I think their best bet may be to try to grab an issue and run with it to try and continue to push the Tax Return's onto the back burner and into the realm of primarily being focused on by those politically inclined.
Click to expand...

The Obama line ranks up there with Romney saying that he enjoys firing people and banks are good people. In other words, there is no substance, but the partisan comments about the comments opened the door to potentially uncomfortable conversations. The tax return issue, on the other hand, is substantive. But I don't think that any of the above will be especially important in the big picture.
 
Redress said:
Trying to spin the Bain and tax return attacks as not working is kinda silly and flies in the face of all the evidence.
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USA Today / Gallup: By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney's background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the nation's economic problems over the next four years.

and again, the OP. The Bain Attacks haven't shifted the numbers, they have only hardened the opinion of Obama's base. That is where they are seeing effect. Much like (if for example) Romney were to go after Obama for his views on abortion. He would harden the opinion of the pro-life-driven segment of his base, but not really move any national numbers.
 
cpwill said:
USA Today / Gallup: By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney's background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the nation's economic problems over the next four years.

and again, the OP. The Bain Attacks haven't shifted the numbers, they have only hardened the opinion of Obama's base. That is where they are seeing effect. Much like (if for example) Romney were to go after Obama for his views on abortion. He would harden the opinion of the pro-life-driven segment of his base, but not really move any national numbers.
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So, on a question unrelated to the attacks, people gave an answer unrelated to the attacks, and you think this proves the attacks where uneffective? Well done.....
 
cpwill said:
The Bain Attacks haven't shifted the numbers, they have only hardened the opinion of Obama's base. That is where they are seeing effect. Much like (if for example) Romney were to go after Obama for his views on abortion. He would harden the opinion of the pro-life-driven segment of his base, but not really move any national numbers.
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Yes, because Romney made such a valiant effort to outlaw abortion when he was governor.
 
Redress said:
Absolutely. Obama gave Romney what he needed with that comment. It will be interesting to see the campaign narrative once the Batman shooting dies down. The point was not that it was still center discussion, but that it did keep the discussion away from anything harmful to Obama for a fair amount of time(plus laid the groundwork for later attacks, such as Romney's IRA). Trying to spin the Bain and tax return attacks as not working is kinda silly and flies in the face of all the evidence.
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I don't think they were not working. I just don't particularly think they were as damning or problematic to the campaign as some attempted to present them as, personally.
 
cpwill said:
From the Right-leaning Rasmussen to the Left-leaning New York Times / CBS:







So yeah. Pretty much for the last couple of weeks, the Obama campaign has been preaching... to one half of the Democrat party. And they have been successful in shifting.... people that were already voting for him.


But hey, if Romney spends the next couple of months talking about economic growth, and Obama spends the next few months diving into the specifics of regulation involving SEC filings, I only want to encourage that. :D
Click to expand...


Little doubt that those negative ads are having a positve effect energizing the Obama's base. Obviously they were going to vote for Obama anyway but it could help him with turnout.

Have seen some of the ads. No idea what the overall impact will be on independent voters in the swing states. But some of the ads are so "over the top" that is suspect they will have an opposite effect in many cases. They make him (Obama) look somewhat desperate and small.


It's going to be an ugly campaign season. That seems assured....
 
Zyphlin said:
I don't think they were not working. I just don't particularly think they were as damning or problematic to the campaign as some attempted to present them as, personally.
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Certainly not yet. I do think there is more to the narrative to build yet. I mention again the IRA, which could be a big thing later.

I would also to an extent call it problamatic because the best Romney can claim out of the last month is he maintained the status quo, which is not good enough to win with for him.
 
Cole said:
It's going to be an ugly campaign season.
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It's going to be an ugly campaign season between two candidates who are both anti-gun, pro-choice tax raisers who both created government healthcare programs.
 
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