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Gallup: Young Voters Turnout Intentions Lagging

cpwill

cpwill

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Apparently the small ball I'll-cut-your-student-loan-payments giveaway isn't working to turn out young voters like the Obama campaign hoped. As I've been pointing out for some time - the excited college sophomore of 2008 is the underemployed waiter with a degree living in his parents house of 2012.


Fifty-eight percent of U.S. registered voters aged 18 to 29 say they will "definitely vote" this fall, well below the current national average of 78% and far below 18- to 29-year-olds' voting intentions in the fall of 2004 and 2008.

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Further indicating that my theory that the 2012 election will include a smaller electoral base (thus giving relatively greater strength to the "most likeliest voter" demographics) was this interesting point:

...Turnout intentions are currently lower among all registered voters than they were in the month before the last two elections, with 78% saying they will definitely vote, compared with figures of at least 85% in October/November 2004 and 2008. This partly reflects the normal pattern in which fewer voters say they will definitely vote in the late spring and early summer months than in the fall of an election year. However, a comparison of similarly timed data in the 2004 and 2008 elections still suggests turnout levels this year may not match those from the last two elections...
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Black voter intentions are given at a couple of points below 2008, while hispanic voter intentions are at 64%. Though I would bet that black voter intentions are going to be somewhat inflated.
 
Then it appears the Democrats have to either push a new national rock the vote or somehow get the youth vote afraid of Mittens.
 
obama leads with blacks, hispanics and women...the only demographic that romny has a significant lead is in white males.
 
lpast said:
obama leads with blacks, hispanics and women...the only demographic that romny has a significant lead is in white males.
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But that doesn't matter if white males give Romney a few key states. Leading in groups that have much lower voting patterns is a serious problem. The older white male group votes more reliably and Romney holds that card solidly.
 
My thoughts are that Obama will not energize his base as he did in 08. For one reason there is no G.W. Bush to demonize. Another reason is that Obama hasn't really done anything special for black Americans. He threw gays and Hispanics a bone, but that's all it was really.

On the other hand, I wonder what an impact Obamacare will have on his base who might have otherwise stayed home if it had not passed the SCOTUS ruling.Will they show up?

My daughter who's in her 20s and lives in Florida voted for Obama in 08 because of what she hoped Obama would do for women. I haven't really heard her say much more after the election except that she was probably voting for Romney in November.

All of my immediate family in Texas will vote for Romney, with one or two exceptions. And i think Romney will probably take Texas. The GOP candidade did in the last POTUS election.

Oh well, wait and see.
 
cpwill said:
Apparently the small ball I'll-cut-your-student-loan-payments giveaway isn't working to turn out young voters like the Obama campaign hoped. As I've been pointing out for some time - the excited college sophomore of 2008 is the underemployed waiter with a degree living in his parents house of 2012.
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So it seems that Econ100 class along with a dash of reality has worked it's magic.
 
Arbo said:
So it seems that Econ100 class along with a dash of reality has worked it's magic.
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Well. No. They would still overwhelmingly vote for the President. They just aren't going to actually vote.
 
cpwill said:
Well. No. They would still overwhelmingly vote for the President. They just aren't going to actually vote.
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Ah, so its a new Xbox game keeping them at home?
 
cpwill said:
Apparently the small ball I'll-cut-your-student-loan-payments giveaway isn't working to turn out young voters like the Obama campaign hoped. As I've been pointing out for some time - the excited college sophomore of 2008 is the underemployed waiter with a degree living in his parents house of 2012.




Further indicating that my theory that the 2012 election will include a smaller electoral base (thus giving relatively greater strength to the "most likeliest voter" demographics) was this interesting point:




Black voter intentions are given at a couple of points below 2008, while hispanic voter intentions are at 64%. Though I would bet that black voter intentions are going to be somewhat inflated.
Click to expand...


You get all excited every time you misread a poll.

It's both funny and pathetic.
 
Fully expected this and have been saying it since 2008. The turnout in the youth is just not going to be close. It's just not. And the largest reason imho is not because of politics of any kind really. It's about one simple thing....

Pop Culture.

Supporting Obama in 2008 was "Cool". Politics became a part of the pop culture atmosphere of the country. It was a socially advantageous thing to do to be talking about Obama, supporting Obama, etc. Obama became...well, a Meme, for lack of a better word. From the HOPE Posters to the Obama Girl video and on and on. If you actually look at the rise and fall of Meme's during the internet age it's kind of funny how a lot of the stuff has analogues with regards to the Obama support in youth. It was the "in" thing to do. It was popular. It was hip.

In 2008.

In 2012...it's politics. It's a battle between two politicians...not a pop culture icon and some other guy. It's 15 minutes of fame in regards to pop culture is gone. It's just another election. Sure, some of your more fervent young people still give a damn to a point of being very active and likely voting...but not much more than what it used to be like. But by and large there's no where near the same amount of scope.

This election is between two politicians, and that's why we're not seeing the youth vote anywhere near what it was.
 
I think the cool factor is real, but in addition to that I think a lot of you people are disillusioned, i.e. have literally been separated from the illusion that one man can make a huge, sudden change in our system.
 
AdamT said:
I think the cool factor is real, but in addition to that I think a lot of you people are disillusioned, i.e. have literally been separated from the illusion that one man can make a huge, sudden change in our system.
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Yep. They believe they were promised that they would not have to put gas in their cars, no longer would they have to pay their rent or their mortgages..

Most Americans did not realize that the fundamental transformation that the one term Marxist flexible candidate Barrack Hussein Obama promised would eliminate their opportunities as we all became equally miserable. Socialism is like that. Now they see it and they are not enthusiastic any longer.
 
Misterveritis said:
Yep. They believe they were promised that they would not have to put gas in their cars, no longer would they have to pay their rent or their mortgages..

Most Americans did not realize that the fundamental transformation that the one term Marxist flexible candidate Barrack Hussein Obama promised would eliminate their opportunities as we all became equally miserable. Socialism is like that. Now they see it and they are not enthusiastic any longer.
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Exactly. Where is Sen. Joe McCarthy when we really need him?
 
Zyphlin said:
Fully expected this and have been saying it since 2008. The turnout in the youth is just not going to be close. It's just not. And the largest reason imho is not because of politics of any kind really. It's about one simple thing....

Pop Culture.

Supporting Obama in 2008 was "Cool". Politics became a part of the pop culture atmosphere of the country. It was a socially advantageous thing to do to be talking about Obama, supporting Obama, etc. Obama became...well, a Meme, for lack of a better word. From the HOPE Posters to the Obama Girl video and on and on. If you actually look at the rise and fall of Meme's during the internet age it's kind of funny how a lot of the stuff has analogues with regards to the Obama support in youth. It was the "in" thing to do. It was popular. It was hip.

In 2008.

In 2012...it's politics. It's a battle between two politicians...not a pop culture icon and some other guy. It's 15 minutes of fame in regards to pop culture is gone. It's just another election. Sure, some of your more fervent young people still give a damn to a point of being very active and likely voting...but not much more than what it used to be like. But by and large there's no where near the same amount of scope.

This election is between two politicians, and that's why we're not seeing the youth vote anywhere near what it was.
Click to expand...

I think you hit the nail on the head. In 2008 there was a buzz on college campuses, at least the ones that were around BU, about the election. There were signs and invites on Facebook to join the student political groups and what not, even in the summer leading up to the election. Starbucks did their event on facebook about if you show up on Election Day with proof of voting you get a free coffee (something they still might do), but it just feels different.

The Democrats in 08 also made you feel like you were apart of something. Whether it was Clinton or Obama, you felt as a voter, you were involved and going to be a part of something. That feeling made you want to go out and vote. Now neither Obama nor Romney can do anything like that. In a sense my age group was disillusioned about politics and now it is just whatever.
 
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