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The latest CNN poll doesn't look good for Obama.

Smeagol

Smeagol

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Romney now leads in 15 battleground states. Obama is still ahead nationally but according to my estimates using this latest poll, if the election were held today Obama would win the popular vote for lose the Electoral College and the Whitehouse.


President Obama remains marginally ahead of Mitt Romney in a new national CNN/ORC International poll released on Monday, although Romney leads Obama in the 15 states identified by the network as battleground states.
...
However, in the 15 states CNN calls its battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent. Notably, though, the CNN/ORC International group includes three states thought to be comfortably in the Romney column this cycle: Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri.


Poll: Romney Claims Slight Edge in 15 'Battleground' States - Yahoo! News
 
Smeagol said:
Romney now leads in 15 battleground states. Obama is still ahead nationally but according to my estimates using this latest poll, if the election were held today Obama would win the popular vote for lose the Electoral College and the Whitehouse.


President Obama remains marginally ahead of Mitt Romney in a new national CNN/ORC International poll released on Monday, although Romney leads Obama in the 15 states identified by the network as battleground states.
...
However, in the 15 states CNN calls its battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent. Notably, though, the CNN/ORC International group includes three states thought to be comfortably in the Romney column this cycle: Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri.


Poll: Romney Claims Slight Edge in 15 'Battleground' States - Yahoo! News
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The problem with this particular poll is that it includes numbers from Arizona, Indiana and Missouri, none of which are TRULY swing states.

You take away those numbers and Obama has a comfortable lead in many of the others. Couple this with the fact that Obama can afford to lose several of the swing states and he still wins the Presidency. Romney cannot afford to lose many of the true 12 swing states including must win Florida and Ohio for Romney.
 
Smeagol said:
Romney now leads in 15 battleground states. Obama is still ahead nationally but according to my estimates using this latest poll, if the election were held today Obama would win the popular vote for lose the Electoral College and the Whitehouse.


President Obama remains marginally ahead of Mitt Romney in a new national CNN/ORC International poll released on Monday, although Romney leads Obama in the 15 states identified by the network as battleground states.
...
However, in the 15 states CNN calls its battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent. Notably, though, the CNN/ORC International group includes three states thought to be comfortably in the Romney column this cycle: Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri.


Poll: Romney Claims Slight Edge in 15 'Battleground' States - Yahoo! News
Click to expand...
I can definitely see the possibility of a Romney electoral win while losing the popular vote. In fact if Romney is to win, I think it is almost likely that it will be an electoral win while losing the popular vote.
 
disneydude said:
The problem with this particular poll is that it includes numbers from Arizona, Indiana and Missouri, none of which are TRULY swing states.

You take away those numbers and Obama has a comfortable lead in many of the others. Couple this with the fact that Obama can afford to lose several of the swing states and he still wins the Presidency. Romney cannot afford to lose many of the true 12 swing states including must win Florida and Ohio for Romney.
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Ah, thanks for the clarity. Driveby lamestream media bias to make Romney look like he's doing better than he really is over at CNN. :mrgreen:
 
Smeagol said:
Ah, thanks for the clarity. Driveby lamestream media bias to make Romney look like he's doing better than he really is over at CNN. :mrgreen:
Click to expand...

The media doesn't really care....they just want it to look like a close race in order to keep people interested and watching. The is a perfect example of how the media will spin it to make it look close. the reality is, the road to the whitehouse is a tough climb for Romney. He cannot win without winning almost all of the swing states. Obama only needs to carry a handful....and anything other than a close race is not good for ratings....be it Fox, CNN, MSNBC or others.
 
00timh said:
I can definitely see the possibility of a Romney electoral win while losing the popular vote. In fact if Romney is to win, I think it is almost likely that it will be an electoral win while losing the popular vote.
Click to expand...

Romney's best chance at an electoral victory is carrying of course, Iowa, Indiana and North Carolina....all states that Obama won in 2008.
Then Romney absolutely HAS to carry BOTH Florida and Ohio - there is no roadmap to the whitehouse for Romney without both.
Then....Romney's best chance is to pick off Wisconsin....which if everything else were the same at 2008, would be an electoral tie...

So you can see that the road for Obama is much easier than the road for Romney....electorally.
 
Smeagol said:
Ah, thanks for the clarity. Driveby lamestream media bias to make Romney look like he's doing better than he really is over at CNN. :mrgreen:
Click to expand...

If you want (what I consider to be the world's best) really good electoral analysis, look up statistician nate silver.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Right now his calculations are a 68.6% chance of an Obama win and the guy has a great track record.
 
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Likely/Lean Obama 221 Electoral votes
Likely/Leans Romney 181 electoral votes

Toss up states with RCP average and number of electoral votes:

Colorado(9): Obama +3
Florida(29): Obama +1.7
Iowa(6): Obama +2.5
Michigan(16): Obama +1.8
Missouri(10): Romney +3
Nevada(6): Obama +5.3
New Hampshire(4): Obama +5.7
North Carolina(15): Romney +1.8
Ohio(18): Obama +2.6
Virginia(13): Obama +2.4
Wisconsin(10): Obama 3.5

Intrade has Obama at 56.1 % chance to win and it has been climbing the last couple weeks. It was down to about 52 in mid June.

Still any one's ballgame. Conventions and debates and VP announcement could all change this significantly, but as of right now, Obama has a clear and fairly strong advantage.
 
disneydude said:
Romney's best chance at an electoral victory is carrying of course, Iowa, Indiana and North Carolina....all states that Obama won in 2008.
Then Romney absolutely HAS to carry BOTH Florida and Ohio - there is no roadmap to the whitehouse for Romney without both.
Then....Romney's best chance is to pick off Wisconsin....which if everything else were the same at 2008, would be an electoral tie...

So you can see that the road for Obama is much easier than the road for Romney....electorally.
Click to expand...
TBH, I am not predicting a Romney win this year. The house will likely stay in GOP control, and the Senate if iffy IMO. The mother of all elections (again) will probably end up being almost as boring as the Clinton-Dole race. I just do not see Romney gathering up the needed excitement to knock Obama off the perch. I do think it will be electorally a closer match than 08. What could change the outlook would be a rough summer economy wise, or if Irananian situation gets real ugly. The latter seems most likely, and would also bring some harsh economic issues by way of record high fuel prices.

There is a lot of general discontent of Obama, something that Obama and liberals in general should be wary of, and that although as things stand now, Obama is likely to win, it will take very little to tip things in Romney's favor. The popular vote won't change significally regardless, but electorally, those swing states will start falling like dominoes for Obama and he will be a one term pres.
 
disneydude said:
The problem with this particular poll is that it includes numbers from Arizona, Indiana and Missouri, none of which are TRULY swing states.

You take away those numbers and Obama has a comfortable lead in many of the others. Couple this with the fact that Obama can afford to lose several of the swing states and he still wins the Presidency. Romney cannot afford to lose many of the true 12 swing states including must win Florida and Ohio for Romney.
Click to expand...
Didn't Obama win Indiana in 2008? Anyhoo, they also included Wisconsin and Michigan, which are usually considered blue states.
 
mpg said:
Didn't Obama win Indiana in 2008? Anyhoo, they also included Wisconsin and Michigan, which are usually considered blue states.
Click to expand...

Obama did win Indiana in 2008, although he wasn't expected to, it was considered by most to be a surprise victory there. Wisconsin and Michigan are usually considered blue and probably will both stay blue.
 
mpg said:
Didn't Obama win Indiana in 2008? Anyhoo, they also included Wisconsin and Michigan, which are usually considered blue states.
Click to expand...

If those two go to Obama, and the two states RCP has at > 5 %, that would leave Obama 3 electoral votes from a win.
 
We're a long way to the finish line, from what I've seen Romney continues to gain ground inch by inch. He was beat up in the race to the GOP but once he became the nominee, he has begun to gain ground on Obama. Along with the economy slowing down. As the swing states begin to pile up for Romney, this does not bold well for Obama.
 
megaprogman said:
If you want (what I consider to be the world's best) really good electoral analysis, look up statistician nate silver.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Right now his calculations are a 68.6% chance of an Obama win and the guy has a great track record.
Click to expand...

I'm not trying to sidetrack this into a discussion of Silver's success. However he's only been in the business for 4 years. The 2008 election was easy to call. His PECOTA baseball predictions where he initially established himself as a "brilliant" statatician have not really proven that reliable.
 
I think Romney will take Indiana and thanks to Scott Walker he has and excellent chance to take Wisconsin......
 
00timh said:
I can definitely see the possibility of a Romney electoral win while losing the popular vote. In fact if Romney is to win, I think it is almost likely that it will be an electoral win while losing the popular vote.
Click to expand...

Half the people claiming they're going to hold their nose and vote for Romney will stay home. Obama will win in the biggest landslide and lowest turnout in history.

Mark my words.
 
hazlnut said:
Half the people claiming they're going to hold their nose and vote for Romney will stay home. Obama will win in the biggest landslide and lowest turnout in history.

Mark my words.
Click to expand...

Dream on my left wing friend........After the ruling on Obamacare he energized Conservatives and Independents.........He got $4M in his coffers in one day.....Hussein is done stick a fork in him......
 
Navy Pride said:
I think Romney will take Indiana and thanks to Scott Walker he has and excellent chance to take Wisconsin......
Click to expand...

Well, based on your history of predictions, I will go ahead and pencil Obama in for Indiana and Wisconsin.
 
mpg said:
Didn't Obama win Indiana in 2008?
Click to expand...

yes. it's very likely, though, that Indiana will vote Romney this time. Indiana will also elect Pence as governor, unfortunately.
 
It's still a long time until November.
 
nota bene said:
It's still a long time until November.
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It is still a long time indeed. There are still a number of skeletons to come flying out of closets. There has to be at least a couple of the old "didn't know the microphone was on".

Besides the two candidates for Presidents who say they can fiscally save us have a billion dollars in their war chest to shoot out their arses and cover us so thick in their BS that Ross Perot could win in a write-in.
 
disneydude said:
The media doesn't really care....they just want it to look like a close race in order to keep people interested and watching. The is a perfect example of how the media will spin it to make it look close. the reality is, the road to the whitehouse is a tough climb for Romney. He cannot win without winning almost all of the swing states. Obama only needs to carry a handful....and anything other than a close race is not good for ratings....be it Fox, CNN, MSNBC or others.
Click to expand...

Bottom Line: It is difficult to beat the Monumental Mendacious Fraud Obami Salami when he bribes voters, especially unions, with freebies. And, the Latino vote with, basically amnesty, and favours as in the States like Arizona where citizens' lives and welfare is threatened .....even though this obvious corrupt move will antagonize the few knowledgeable voters.
 
megaprogman said:
If you want (what I consider to be the world's best) really good electoral analysis, look up statistician nate silver.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Right now his calculations are a 68.6% chance of an Obama win and the guy has a great track record.
Click to expand...

Except his prediction model tanked in 2010. His model seems to be spot on when dem turnouts are normal and republican turnouts are normal. When the GOP is energized he tends to miss. Shoot small, miss small usually works but it misses big electoral movement shifts. He missed the last one.
 
Only one poll matters. And this is not that poll.
 
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