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The latest CNN poll doesn't look good for Obama.

AdamT said:
Really? Can you provide a link showing his ****ty results?
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He talks at length about how he underpredicted the size of the wave at the end of the election cycle and he and other electoral predicters tried to find the flaws in their models. Silver isnt showing his prediction model because, as he says, right or wrong he pays more attention to polls themselves at the end of the cycle. This proved to skew his own results somewhat.
 
OpportunityCost said:
Except his prediction model tanked in 2010. His model seems to be spot on when dem turnouts are normal and republican turnouts are normal. When the GOP is energized he tends to miss. Shoot small, miss small usually works but it misses big electoral movement shifts. He missed the last one.
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What I find astounding is their ability to get energized behind a candidate who has a track record of being almost as liberal Obama in almost every area. This just reinforces my theory that it's not about issues and policies but paradoxically the identity politics the right condemns but in their case based on the -R after his name.
 
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OpportunityCost said:
Except his prediction model tanked in 2010. His model seems to be spot on when dem turnouts are normal and republican turnouts are normal. When the GOP is energized he tends to miss. Shoot small, miss small usually works but it misses big electoral movement shifts. He missed the last one.
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Of the 37 Senate seats contested in the November 2, 2010 elections, 36 were resolved by November 4, including very close outcomes in several states. Of these 36, the FiveThirtyEight model had correctly predicted the winner in 34. One of the two misses was in Colorado, in which the incumbent Michael Bennet (D) outpolled the challenger Ken Buck (R) by less than 1 percentage point. The 538 model had forecast that Buck would win by 1 percentage point. The second miss was in Nevada, in which the incumbent Harry Reid beat challenger Sharron Angle by 5.5 percentage points, whereas the 538 model had forecast Angle to win by 3.0 percentage points. Silver has speculated the error was due at least in part to the fact that polling organizations underrepresented Hispanic voters by not interviewing in Spanish.[95]

In the remaining contest for U.S. Senate, in Alaska, the electoral outcome was not yet determined as of November 4, pending a count of the write-in ballots, but in the end the FiveThirtyEight forecast of GOP nominee Joe Miller as winner ultimately proved to be wrong, as write-in candidate, incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, prevailed.

The 538 model had forecast a net pickup of 7 seats by the Republicans in the Senate, but the outcome was a pickup of 6 seats.
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seems to have done pretty well to me. one or two off is always going to happen.
 
Navy Pride said:
I think Romney will take Indiana and thanks to Scott Walker he has and excellent chance to take Wisconsin......
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The polls say otherwise....that is....unless, like Walker, the Koch Brothers and the right-wing outspend Obama 10-1 and barrage the air with a ton of deceitful propoganda.....even then....Romney isn't likely to take Wisconsin...and even then......he would still have to win the vast majority of the swing states....which isn't likely....but good luck!
 
Navy Pride said:
Dream on my left wing friend........After the ruling on Obamacare he energized Conservatives and Independents.........He got $4M in his coffers in one day.....Hussein is done stick a fork in him......
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Is this why polls show the public opinion on Obamacare increasing since the ruling? Hmmmmm.....strange "energizing" there....LOL.

Oh...btw...Navy, do you really think that the GOP and Romney can run on the issue when the public is even more COLD on Romneycare? Face it, you Republicans lost a lot of leverage when you nominated Mr. Etch a Sketch......"I was for the mandate before I was against it"...."I wouldn't call it a mandate, but we are going to MANDATE that people buy health insurance because it is the right thing to do!"....

Good luck with that one old man......
 
OpportunityCost said:
Except his prediction model tanked in 2010. His model seems to be spot on when dem turnouts are normal and republican turnouts are normal. When the GOP is energized he tends to miss. Shoot small, miss small usually works but it misses big electoral movement shifts. He missed the last one.
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Where is that data?
 
There has never been an estimate of the electoral map in which Obama has not been winning decisively over Mitt, and that is all that matters. It will be delicious to observe the hypocrisy of Republicans once they begin to be cognizant en mass that they are now on the losing end of the constitutional bargain, (one they heretofore celebrated.) Of course that observation will only be enjoyed by those who remember.
 
Smeagol said:
Ah, thanks for the clarity. Driveby lamestream media bias to make Romney look like he's doing better than he really is over at CNN. :mrgreen:
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CNN is atrocious. They've tricked themselves into believing that they need to be in some kind of ratings contest with FOX that they keep pretzeling themselves trying to establish an identity instead of just doing news. They suck something fierce.
 
hazlnut said:
Half the people claiming they're going to hold their nose and vote for Romney will stay home. Obama will win in the biggest landslide and lowest turnout in history.

Mark my words.
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Obama is not well enough liked for such a landslide. Reagan-Mondale style landslide just isn't in the cards here. I do feel there is a good possibility of a ultimately boring race with Romney losing but not quite as much as McCain. Dems have not done well since 08 in general. The GOP is going to take back some of the light red states. I just do not see the enthusiasm of a new direction candidate that would be needed to knock Obama off the perch. Romney is basically going to be saying I am going to be doing the same only better. Just not enough there.
 
Obama can solidify his lead over Romney by starting another war. Perhaps by the time the election rolls around, the international community will finally decide to intervene in Syria. Military distractions often work to the advantage of the incumbent president. War allows a president to look strong and offers plenty of free publicity. If not Syria, there's always Iran, if Obama wants something really big. The polls in September/October will likely determine the scope of war that Obama seeks.
 
Zen said:
Obama can solidify his lead over Romney by starting another war. Perhaps by the time the election rolls around, the international community will finally decide to intervene in Syria. Military distractions often work to the advantage of the incumbent president. War allows a president to look strong and offers plenty of free publicity. If not Syria, there's always Iran, if Obama wants something really big. The polls in September/October will likely determine the scope of war that Obama seeks.
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No one gives a crap about Syria, that will only lead to more mid east fatigue when it comes to wars where we are not personally threatened. Iran however is another story if they try to get all big and bad in the strait of Hormuz. Not that they have the ability to shut it down completely, but they can make it difficult enough to cause some serious problems. Or if they start launching missiles at Israel or U.S. targets. That can work to Obama's advantage IF.... he was to get big and bad on them, but that so far has not been his nature.
 
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