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Louisiana 24 Mar 2012

Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul&&&&

Nice to see Santorum get a major victory.

Maybe now some of those party bigwigs will start to get the idea that running a Moderate like Romney against his brother from another mother, Barrack Obama, is NOT going to bring out the Republican vote in droves....... "

Unless they go out for Fishing ! ...



......... We'll see what happens in the next couple of months, but at some point one would like to think that the Republican Party would be smart enough to see that their "chosen son" is NOT what the majority of the party members appear to want in a candidate.

Otherwise, since Real Conservatives already succeeded to attract a Majority of GOP's Members (see Facts cited above), and people like Santorum are also able to motivate even a lot of former Abstentionists (+ 50% of USA's Population), after the establisment's bureaucrats "killed" the Popular "Values" movement, back on 2008, it will be Easier than spend its Time and Energy in more rigged "Primaries", (and perhaps Better) to Create a New, really Conservative Party in America, (since the old GOP, in such a case, will be condemned to stay out of Power for Decades), ready to Fight and Win for Values !
 
I suspect the game could go all the way to NY and Cali. That will close the deal however.

But the problem is that he has zero chance in NY or Cal unless he wins Wisconsin. Even if he does win Wisconsin, he has only a small chance in NY and still zero chance in Cal.
 
Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

Yep! You would be surprised election day when you fine Santorum won the election! :cool:

No, but the country needs Santorum to win the nomination so we can finally have that day in court: conservative vs normal candidate. Once the conservative gets trounced then American politics can move to an era of normalcy with diminished extreme partisanship and things will finally get done. If Romney gets the nod and gets trounced, the Republicans will once again have this dangerous fantasy that it was because their candidate wasn't conservative enough... and they will be obsessed with coming up with even bigger whack-a-doos advocating that we return to the 13th century because their 17th century candidate didn't get it done.
 
But the problem is that he has zero chance in NY or Cal unless he wins Wisconsin. Even if he does win Wisconsin, he has only a small chance in NY and still zero chance in Cal.

Depends on who you mean by "he". If Santorum then you are probably correct, and he probably won't get Wisconsin. It's irrelevant to an extent since he simply cannot get enough delegates to win outright. Santorum needs about 800 of the remaining 1100ish delegates(math done in my head and I ain't awake yet, so some wiggle room here, but the point stands), which is for all intents impossible. Romney needs under 600 of those delegates, which is likely. Romney will win NY and Cali, with 260 delegates just between the two.
 
Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

[graphic snipped]

Popular, young and strong on Values, dynamic Senator Richard Santorum won an unexpectedly large, much Bigger than throught Win over unpopular, flip-flop, old Millionaire Willard "Mitt" Romney, with almost 50% against 26%, Romney struggling not to fall even lower than 25%, which would mean that he wouldn't take not even 1 among the 46 Delegates at stake....

But the greatest Surprise was Newt Gingrich's "melting" down, nearly to ...15% only, (while, on the contrary, previously he had been credited with more than 20%, initially even 30%)... It seems that recent Poll's findings that "the big difference ... is that Conservative Voters appear to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now" (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_LA_323.pdf ), while also more than +61% of his initial Voters are Ready to Switch towards Santorum (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Magellan_LA_0320B.pdf) are confirmed and even Larger than expected, as a kind of Popular "Sanction" for his stuborness to divide real Conservatives, (which, taken all together, have a NATIONWIDE, crystal clear Majority against Romney)..

Also, Santorum almost DOUBLED his Winning Margin at the last minute : While Polls expected him to win over Romney with a margin of some 10% or 13%, finally, he succeeded to win up to + 24 % More Votes , reaching 50% to 26%, respectively !

In fact, Millionaire Romney ... DISAPPEARED throughout all Lousiana State's Map, remaining visible only inside Orleans, and lost in almost every Category of the Population, (even among the Elders, his main refuge elsewhere), with the only Exception of those who are earning .. more than 200.000 $ per year...

[graphic snipped]

Even more Worrying for him : An absolute Majority of more than 54% among Romney's current Voters declared that they would be "Satisfied with Santorum if he won the GOP's Nomination" later-on, i.e. ready to switch from Romney towards Santorum, who is recently Winning a Series of Victories since "Super Tuesday". ( http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/strong-conservatives-turn-out-in-louisiana/ ).

Just by himself, Santorum succeded to attract more Votes than .. all his competitors added together : More than 91.000 Votes, compared to 26.000 for Romney, 15.000 for Gingrich and 11.000 for Paul, (i.e. about 50% compared to 26% for Romney, 15% for Gingrich and 6% for Paul)...

An interesting point is that many among his Voters were not Evangelicals or other fundamental Christians, but rather also a large portion of "Fiscal Conservatives", even if Santorum lagely confiirmed and even reinforced his well known predominance among People who give a priority on "Conservative Values", (such as Family, Children, Life, protection of Human Embryo from Genetic Manipulations Dangerous for Humankind, America's History, Culture and Identity, etc).

2521714680105195353S500x500Q85.jpg


+ Louisiana's even more brillant than expected Victory of Santorum, confirms and strengthens further the TREND, Since "Super Tuesday" (March 6), for him to mark clear Wins in almost Every Big State in Mainland America, (with the only Exception of Illinois, where an abnormaly "Lower Turnout than in 70 Years" : only ..15%, certainly wouldn't happen again when it will come to face Obama, as mainstream Media critically observed), while, on the contrary, Romney only gets a few "Exotic" areas, in Remote Regions of the World, such as ... Guam, Samoa or Marianas Islands, etc.... (See our special thread, full of Facts on this astonishing U-turn).

- Moreover, Until today, Romney has completely LOST, at more than SIX (6) big mainland States, where he Fell Down LAST (Lower than Gingrich or even Paul !) : Minnesota, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Alabama, Mississipi.
On the contrary, Santorum NEVER fell so low, (with the only Controversial "Exception" of Virginia, just because Bureaucracy Hindered him even to participate there, as well as Gingrich !)...

- In fact, ROMNEY IS A MINORITY, since he's got - 1 Million Votes LESS than the Conservatives, led by Santorum and including Gingrich, who got together much more than 5 Millions of Votes, (to which might e added also Paul's more than + 1 Million votes, making the total 6 Miliions), against only 4 Millions for Romney...

He is as small as a Minority of only 39% of GOP's Votes, with 61% opposed to him ! The Strongest Group of all being that of Real Conservatives with 49%, led by Santorum (more than 27 % and growing fast !), including Gingrich's voters (21 %), and followed by Paul's (10%), with some 2% being dispersed to various others (as Huntsman, Perry, Bachman, etc., i.e. notoriously close to Santorum).

Last but not least, recently, Santorum's campaign's staff started to Strongly Contest the precise Number of Delegates' allocation, as reported by various mainstream Media, claiming that the Real Proportion would be something around 300 to 400 for Romney, etc., ( Faulty math? Rick Santorum ), while Polls give Santorum a clear Win also on Texas, which has 155 Delegates.

- Santorum has thus Won the 1st place in more than 11 States, and the Second place in 15 States, while Gingrich has only won in 2 States and came Second in 3 States. Thus, Santorum has already got more than the DOUBLE of Gingrich's Delegates : More than 273 compared to only 135.

=> If "Newt" persists to Divide the Conservatives for too long, then he will obviously become a ..."Nuisance", and will bear alone all heavy Responsibilities for the consequences.

But he could logically team with Santorum, (f.ex. as future Vice-President or State Secretary, etc) so that, all together, they rapidly transform their Voters' Majority inside GOP, also in a Majority in Delegates.

Unless Gingrich, in fact, wants just to keep the Minority of 20% among his Voters who would otherwise go to Romney, while, in fact, leaving the Majority of more than 61% of his Voters who are ready to go towards Santorum, to do so : I.e., by a "coincidence", ... precisely what has already happened, just today in Louisiana (See above) !..

At any case, one thing is certain : Nobody could go against the American People's Will by imposing them an unpopular, Minority candidate, as Romney, contrary to the democratically expressed will of the Majority of Voters, who are obviously in favor of the Conservative wing, led by Santorum and including Gingrich, etc. (See Facts cited above).

Because, in that case, GOP would simply loose, as also it did back on 2008, when its establishment (Romney included) undermined the charismatic Governor Mike Huckabee, in order to impose the so-called "moderate" McCain, who totaly Failed in front of Obama...

It's only on 2004 US Presidential Elections that the Popular "Values" Movement, able to revive an "American Dream" nowadays, emerged suddenly, free and strong, helping succesfully GWBush to mark, at the last minute, an unexpected, crystal-clear Win with + 3 Millions of Votes more. But, some establishment lobbies slyly "killed" that growing Popular Wave, during the Primaries, back on 2008, and all GOP paid a heavy price for that Blunder.

On the contrary, popular, young and strong on Values, dynamic Senator Rick Santorum, the only real Revelation of 2012 GOP Primaries for the US Presidential Election, has already proved that he knows how to Win even without the Tens of Millions $ spend by his adversaries, (and mainly the disgraceful Waste of Money by the unpopular, flip-flop, old Millionaire Romney : a Shame during these times of Global Crisis !), by running, on the contary, just with super-Motivated People's Energy !

Only such an energetic Personality, based on Solid Principles and Popular Values, could really speak to average, simple Working American People, awaken and attract a large Number among the 50% of Abstentionists in recent US Elections, shaping a Strongly Motivated and Enthousiastic Majority able both to win against Obama, and to "Restore Faith in the American Dream", as Santorum's Noble ambition is .-
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You have done a fine job with your analysis of the various trees within the forest. Unfortunately, you are lost in that forest. What you are missing in all of this is where Romney is beating Santorum, which are the urban areas and suburbs and in swing states. In the real battleground areas of the general election, Romney consistently beats Santorum, indicating not only Republican preference in those areas, but a greater likelihood that he could actually win in those areas in a general.

The places where Santorum is beating Romney are irrelevant in the general. The Republicans could run Mickey Mouse (and many of believe they are) in places like Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Kansas, Tennessee, Alabama and North Dakota and they would win. The Republicans can also win rural areas no matter who they run. The fact that Romney won New Orleans was probably the real thing item of note in Louisana.. otherwise, it was a meaningless primary. Sorry, the numbers increasingly telling us that Romney is the stronger candidate.

If Santorum cannot win Wisconsin, he is toast. He can't stop Romney from sowing up the nomination prior to Tampa unless he can win Wisconsin.

Pity, as he would be the easiest candidate for Obama to beat in the fall... for many of the reasons articulated herein.
 
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Depends on who you mean by "he". If Santorum then you are probably correct, and he probably won't get Wisconsin. It's irrelevant to an extent since he simply cannot get enough delegates to win outright. Santorum needs about 800 of the remaining 1100ish delegates(math done in my head and I ain't awake yet, so some wiggle room here, but the point stands), which is for all intents impossible. Romney needs under 600 of those delegates, which is likely. Romney will win NY and Cali, with 260 delegates just between the two.

Sorry.. the pronoun "he" refers to Rick Santorum.

No question that Santorum can not win the nomination prior to Tampa. All he can do is prevent Romney from winning it. That won't happen if he loses Wisconsin. This thing is likely over next week.
 
Looks like this damn election may really come down to voting for someone who will severely damage this country from a Governmental stance or vote for someone who will severely damage this country from a Social stance.

Woo...

:Sigh:
 
Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

Otherwise, since Real Conservatives already succeeded to attract a Majority of GOP's Members (see Facts cited above), and people like Santorum are also able to motivate even a lot of former Abstentionists (+ 50% of USA's Population), after the establisment's bureaucrats "killed" the Popular "Values" movement, back on 2008, it will be Easier than spend its Time and Energy in more rigged "Primaries", (and perhaps Better) to Create a New, really Conservative Party in America, (since the old GOP, in such a case, will be condemned to stay out of Power for Decades), ready to Fight and Win for Values !

IF I was able to make heads or tails out of that gibberish, we do appear to be on the same page that the alternative to the Republicans putting forth a Conservative candidate this year MAY well be the disolution of the Republican Party and the formation of a much more Conservative and Right-Wing party and the absorbtion of the more moderate Republicans into the Democratic Party.
 
Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

IF I was able to make heads or tails out of that gibberish, we do appear to be on the same page that the alternative to the Republicans putting forth a Conservative candidate this year MAY well be the disolution of the Republican Party and the formation of a much more Conservative and Right-Wing party and the absorbtion of the more moderate Republicans into the Democratic Party.

The exact reason that we all need to have Santorum win the nomination: so we have this out right now. If Romney wins nomination but not the WH, the Conservatives will be championing the idea that they did not put up a conservative enough candidate. We will get four more years of dysfunctional non-sense. If Santorum wins the nomination but not the WH, then we can all return to rationality and we can once again have rational, bi-partisian work on the nation's business. This conservative thing has been out of control for far too long. Its time to put the myth to bed. Go Rick!
 
Re: Surprise LA Vote: Santorum crushes Romney 50%-26%. Gingrich disappears: 15%. Paul

The exact reason that we all need to have Santorum win the nomination: so we have this out right now. If Romney wins nomination but not the WH, the Conservatives will be championing the idea that they did not put up a conservative enough candidate. We will get four more years of dysfunctional non-sense. If Santorum wins the nomination but not the WH, then we can all return to rationality and we can once again have rational, bi-partisian work on the nation's business. This conservative thing has been out of control for far too long. Its time to put the myth to bed. Go Rick!

Not at all. A Romney loss will create a total split in the party. There will likely be either a total re-envisioning of the party or a brand new party coming out of a Romney nomination and loss. A Romney WIN might be about the only thing more damaging because it will force Conservatives to fight both major parties. A Santorum loss simply pushes the Conservatives to give up on politics entirely and move on to the idea of violent revolution against the Government.
 
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