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Race Now Over

Kandahar said:
Well...it's not so much that I think Romney would be a great candidate against Obama. I think he'd be a weak-to-average candidate, at best. I just think that Gingrich, Santorum, and Ron Paul are all much more certain losses for the Republicans due to their bizarre views on certain issues and (in the case of Gingrich and Santorum) undisciplined campaigns. Romney isn't exactly endearing, but at least he is sane, which sets him apart from the other remaining Republican candidates.

As a Democrat, I'm personally rooting for Santorum, in order to guarantee Obama a victory. My ideal outcome would be a long, bloody Republican primary ending with Santorum eking out a majority of the delegates.



I think that the historical evidence is very strong that suggests that, all else being equal, candidates near the ideological center of the electorate tend to do better than candidates farther from the ideological center. I noticed that you compared Romney to John Kerry, which I think is a valid comparison...there certainly are a lot of similarities between them. But let's not overlook the fact that for all his lack of charisma, John Kerry came very close to unseating an incumbent Republican president, and probably would have succeeded if Bush's approval rating had been only 1% lower on Election Day 2004.
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Realisitically, the only who who could come even remotely close to Obama in terms of money is Romney, and even then he would be at a severe disadvantage. A similar problem is that Obama is busy building a noce, strong campaign apparatus in every state. Only Romney is even close in that area. Republicans are at a strong disadvantage this cycle, and unless something major happens between now and election, it could be pretty ugly for the republican nominee in November. Intrade has Obama at a 63 % chance to win, and that is rising.
 
AdamT said:
So the big headline is that the day was Santorum's ... but once again, Romney walks away with more electoral votes, which is what actually matters.
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Your wrong my friend. What counts is getting the necessary delegates to get over the top at the end and with both Santorum and Ginrich both sucking up delegates the chances are he won't get the number he needs to win the nomination.
 
Redress said:
Realisitically, the only who who could come even remotely close to Obama in terms of money is Romney, and even then he would be at a severe disadvantage. A similar problem is that Obama is busy building a noce, strong campaign apparatus in every state. Only Romney is even close in that area. Republicans are at a strong disadvantage this cycle, and unless something major happens between now and election, it could be pretty ugly for the republican nominee in November. Intrade has Obama at a 63 % chance to win, and that is rising.
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Its kind of funny that Romney out spends Santorum in every primary yet Santorum keeps winning states........How do you explain that?
 
Navy Pride said:
Its kind of funny that Romney out spends Santorum in every primary yet Santorum keeps winning states........How do you explain that?
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Santorum is an impressive campaigner. He simply cannot get enough credit for what he has done this primary season.
 
Redress said:
Santorum is an impressive campaigner. He simply cannot get enough credit for what he has done this primary season.
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Makes you wonder how he got walloped so bad in his Senate reelection campaign, doesn't it?
 
AdamT said:
Makes you wonder how he got walloped so bad in his Senate reelection campaign, doesn't it?
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Casey was considered by democracts who liked Rick Santorum as a democract version of Santorum. Too bad Casey didn't stand up for the unborn like his father did.
 
Remember, as Rick "John" Santorum explained this "is not a political campaign, it is a spiritual campaign."
 
AdamT said:
Makes you wonder how he got walloped so bad in his Senate reelection campaign, doesn't it?
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But it never happened, just like he was never an anti-right-to-work, big spender and pro-choice moderate.
 
beerftw said:
actual true conservatives arent gonna vote for romney anyways,if its not stealing the republican or democratic vote disenfranchised voters just stay home,again look at mcain and kerry,both were safe moderate bets and both lost horribly,this is where romney is headed.
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I have a description for such so called conservatives

OBAMA SUPPORTERS
 
TurtleDude said:
I have a description for such so called conservatives

OBAMA SUPPORTERS
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let me explain it again,romney has independant voters backing him but not conservatives,santorum has conservative but not moderate.


in states where the conservative vote is split 2 ways and earlier in the election 4 ways,romney has outspent them dollar for dollar to show the conservative base doesnt back him,the souther states are proof.

to win an election a candidate needs to excite his base plus command a majority of swing voters,so if he cant excite his base,hs doomed to the failure of kerry and mcain.

i cannot support a candidate who changes his views and says what people want him to say.the only thing worse than him was kerrys campaign strategy,"bush is bad im good vote for me cuz im not him"


seeing how romney differs very little from obamas policies i feel its gonna end up being another vote for me because im not him elections.
 
beerftw said:
so the gop went from a 82% failure probability to a 100%.

figured after kerry and mcain they would realize the safe bet never wins.
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Yeah, more people should have supported Ron Paul.
 
AdamT said:
Makes you wonder how he got walloped so bad in his Senate reelection campaign, doesn't it?
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Santorum is not currently playing to the entire electorate as he did when he lost so badly in Pennsylvania. He is only now playing to a much narrower slice of the population who tends to accept his sort of politician far easier than the totality of the electorate does. I watched him here in Michigan for a month and was not at all impressed. His advertising was outright horrible and cost him votes. He lacked a real on the ground organization. His speaking ability is mediocre at best.
 
AdamT said:
Makes you wonder how he got walloped so bad in his Senate reelection campaign, doesn't it?
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It will be deja vu all over again should he come out of Tampa with the nomination..... In essence, a Christine O'Donnell model running for national office.

Bazooka aimed at foot. Fire!

Actually, the best thing for the country would be for the Repubs to put up a Conservative and let him get slaughtered. If the Repubs lose with a more moderate candidate, the Rush's of the world (assuming the Golden Microphone hasn't been repossessed and replaced with a cheap plastic thingy) and other pundits will be convincing the party they lost because the candidate was not conservative enough.
 
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Jeezy said:
Even if Gingrich drops out and gives all of his delegates to Frothy, Santorum will have to win two thirds of all remaining delegates to get the nomination.

Won't happen. So Newt sees no need.
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The delegates can't just be turned over to Romney at this point, so that is not an issue. They will only be officially release at the convention. I am not really sure why Newt is still in. unless he is at this point running blocker for Romney secretly. He takes votes away from Santorum moreso than Romney... But, While Santorum needs 2/3rds of the remaining delegates, that is an uphill battle, but I don't see it as a mt everest to climb for him. especially when currently he has been riding some mo. Looks like this one may go to the end if Santorum can pick up Tx.
 
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