I personally will say no.
Not just because it is difficult to win against a sitting president that is not very unpopular. And not just because the economic situation has started on it's way upward. No, it is much more basic than that.
1. Let's begin with the simple mathmetics of the race, last presidential campaign bank on McCain to bring his home state to the GOP. Romney does not stand any chance of personally bringing any states to which he is connected. He will not win his birth state of Michigan. He was barely able to fend off Santorum there and in a state that has gone Democratic in the last 5 elections, one must conclude that this state will almost certainly go to Obama.
The same can be said for the state he was governor of, Massachusetts, in the past 4 elections no democratic presidential candidate scored under 60% of the vote (average was 61.5%) compared to the highest for a GOP candidate of 37%. On average, the democratic presidential candidate wins there with a 28% lead (in the past 4 elections that is). So in Massachusetts Romney is also not going to carry that state.
2. Next is his public image, he is a rich, white, a guy and a mormon. And when I say rich, I mean proper filthy rich. He is proper fithly rich In a country where most people are not. In a lot of polls about Obama people are asked ""He understands the problems of ordinary Americans", think about when that question is asked about Romney, the man of slip ups like:
- My wife drives a couple of cadillacs
- “I have some great friends who are NASCAR team owners.”
- I too, had feared the “pink slip” during my life.
- “I’ll tell you what. Ten thousand bucks. A $10,000 bet.”
- “I’m also unemployed.”
- “Corporations are people, my friend.”
- “I like being able to fire people who provide services to me.”
- says he 370,000$ fee was "not very much"
He is the perfect sitting duck for shows like the Today show and even a little bit the Colbert Report.
He also seems to put his foot in his mouth and still keep babbling on, like when he spoke in Michigan and he said:
“I was born and raised here. I love this state. It seems right here. The trees are the right height,” he told the crowd. “I like seeing the lakes. I love the lakes. There’s something very special here. The Great Lakes, but also all the little inland lakes that dot the parts of Michigan. I love cars.”
3. The man is stiff, he is does not look very inspirational to me and I think to many people might see it that way too.
4. He is not republican/conservative enough on social issues
5. he is a great target the Super Pacs from the democratic side, because the man flip flops on very fundamental issues:
He was pro-choice before he became pro-life:
Romney, Oct. 29, 2002: “I will preserve and protect a woman’s right to choose”
Romney, Dec. 16, 2007: “The right next step in the, in the fight to preserve the sanctity of life is to see Roe v. Wade overturned.”
he flopped on immigration (big issue for the Latino vote)
he flopped on Reagan
he flopped on embryonic stemcell research
Romney has flip flopped on a lot of issues, which is not strange because he wanted the job in Massachusetts so his he set his moral compass to "not too conservative" with all the opinions that belong to that, now he wants the big job, president of the USA so he needs all the really republican very conservative voters on his side so he is flopping like mad to look as conservative as he could possibly look like.
So we have had electability issues, in he does not bring in any big states to which he was formerly connected and steal them away from Obama. Then we had personality issues with his wealth, the connnection issues he has with normal people, the boring personality, the fact that he likes to put his foot into his mouth and still keep babbling nonsense, the fact that he flip flopps almost as bad as John Kerry did and the fact that he is in no way the best liked candidate for the strong conservate base of the party.
Then there is still one big issue left, number 6 on the list of issues for Romney, that last one is his faith.
6. Mormon. Mitt Romney is a Mormon, a faith that has been connected to cults that allow multiple wives, a faith where some have the nasty habit of performing baptisms on people they have no business in baptising. People like Obama's mother, Anne Frank, Simon Wiesenthal, Adolf Hitler and many jews who died in concentration camps. En then there are more issues, about the stuffs they ingest (or do not ingest like alcohol, coffee, tea, etc. etc.) and even about them having mormon underwear.
It was hard enough for the first Catholic to be chosen into office and for the first African American to be chosen as a president. I just do not think the US is ready willing and able to welcome a mormon as the next president.
Finallly,what is the upside to Romney? Well, he is a member of the GOP, he is really rich (advertising), has rich buddies (Superpacs), is white and for a lot of voters, he is not Obama.
Please remember, this is my personal observation based on the campaign I have seen so far, my following of US politics for many years and my views as an outsider, I do not hate or dislike mr. Romney but tried (from my point of view) to see what chances are that Romney will/can defeat Obama, and I just don't think it is going to happen.