Corfieldb
New member
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- Jan 17, 2012
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- Slightly Liberal
Are the odds of President Obama being re-elected improving?
Yes, they are...
Before we jump in, its important to remember there are almost eight months left until the November election. Anything can happen. What happens in Greece will certainly effect world markets and with the US economy on the mend itself, its not a good time to have to absorb another shock to the system. If recent reports are wrong that the Iranian leaders are prepared to have meaningful talks about its nuclear program, most experts agree that something will happen in that region. Iran may try to block the Straits of Hormutz, which will likely lead to a spike in oil prices and/or outright military intervention. Plus, the notion of Israel taking matters into its own hands could also have large repercussions. The Supreme Court will be hearing the challenge to the Affordable Care Act in late Spring and the resulting decision will likely produce aftershocks. If the ACA is upheld, then the Administration can take a bit of a victory lap. If its all ruled unconstitutional, then the GOP gets the victory lap. If only the individual mandate is ruled unconstitutional, but the rest of the ACA is upheld, then no one and both sides will take a lap.
Obviously, the Republicans are likely to have a say in the matter of another four years for President Obama. While its concerning to many Conservatives that the party hasn't fallen en masse behind a single candidate, at some point they will. In terms of sheer financial strength and organization, the nomination is Mitt Romney's to lose. His resources dwarf all of the other candidates combined. While he would do the best against Obama in the general, Romney isn't nearly conservative enough to suit many on the far right plank of the party, thus the battle continues until further notice. Rick Santorum is making progress every day into Romney's lead, but his stance on social issues turns off a lot of mainstream people. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul seem to be doing a slow fade into irrelevance. Procedurally, its almost impossible for a new face to enter the fray at this point, like Marco Rubio or a Chris Christie, and both have said they're not interested in the Presidency at this time. With the long shot of a brokered convention leaving the door cracked open just slightly, a new face could ride into the fray on a white stallion to save the Republican day, but don't hold your breath.
The other caveat is Mr. Obama himself. Obama, during his time on the national stage, has committed any number of unforced errors, which the GOP will be watching for very closely. From the infamous picture of him at the Tom Harkin picnic for Democratic contenders back in 2007 where he failed to put his right hand over his heart during the playing of the national anthem, to insulting the Harvard police force during a live press conference which lead to the "beer summit," this President has often been his own worst enemy. A big part of successful messaging is controlling the news cycles and missteps like those two must be avoided.
******************************************************************************
The economy is expected to be THE issue in the campaign. Pocketbook issues usually rule the day in national elections and while people don't like the deficit, don't like the size and scope of our Federal Government, etc., they'll tend to vote for issues closer to home. The people who feel strongly on issues like that already have their minds made up on who to vote for in 2012. Deficit hawks, Constitutionalists, Pro-lifers...
Click here to continue reading...
Yes, they are...
Before we jump in, its important to remember there are almost eight months left until the November election. Anything can happen. What happens in Greece will certainly effect world markets and with the US economy on the mend itself, its not a good time to have to absorb another shock to the system. If recent reports are wrong that the Iranian leaders are prepared to have meaningful talks about its nuclear program, most experts agree that something will happen in that region. Iran may try to block the Straits of Hormutz, which will likely lead to a spike in oil prices and/or outright military intervention. Plus, the notion of Israel taking matters into its own hands could also have large repercussions. The Supreme Court will be hearing the challenge to the Affordable Care Act in late Spring and the resulting decision will likely produce aftershocks. If the ACA is upheld, then the Administration can take a bit of a victory lap. If its all ruled unconstitutional, then the GOP gets the victory lap. If only the individual mandate is ruled unconstitutional, but the rest of the ACA is upheld, then no one and both sides will take a lap.
Obviously, the Republicans are likely to have a say in the matter of another four years for President Obama. While its concerning to many Conservatives that the party hasn't fallen en masse behind a single candidate, at some point they will. In terms of sheer financial strength and organization, the nomination is Mitt Romney's to lose. His resources dwarf all of the other candidates combined. While he would do the best against Obama in the general, Romney isn't nearly conservative enough to suit many on the far right plank of the party, thus the battle continues until further notice. Rick Santorum is making progress every day into Romney's lead, but his stance on social issues turns off a lot of mainstream people. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul seem to be doing a slow fade into irrelevance. Procedurally, its almost impossible for a new face to enter the fray at this point, like Marco Rubio or a Chris Christie, and both have said they're not interested in the Presidency at this time. With the long shot of a brokered convention leaving the door cracked open just slightly, a new face could ride into the fray on a white stallion to save the Republican day, but don't hold your breath.
The other caveat is Mr. Obama himself. Obama, during his time on the national stage, has committed any number of unforced errors, which the GOP will be watching for very closely. From the infamous picture of him at the Tom Harkin picnic for Democratic contenders back in 2007 where he failed to put his right hand over his heart during the playing of the national anthem, to insulting the Harvard police force during a live press conference which lead to the "beer summit," this President has often been his own worst enemy. A big part of successful messaging is controlling the news cycles and missteps like those two must be avoided.
******************************************************************************
The economy is expected to be THE issue in the campaign. Pocketbook issues usually rule the day in national elections and while people don't like the deficit, don't like the size and scope of our Federal Government, etc., they'll tend to vote for issues closer to home. The people who feel strongly on issues like that already have their minds made up on who to vote for in 2012. Deficit hawks, Constitutionalists, Pro-lifers...
Click here to continue reading...
