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Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss in November

Erod

Erod

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Ten months away, Gallup polls say Obama is in great trouble in states he won in 2008.


Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss | Campaign 2012 | Washington Examiner


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Well, I'll be really worried when Republican (R) appears on the ballot.
 
User-Generated map?
 
Erod said:
Ten months away, Gallup polls say Obama is in great trouble in states he won in 2008.
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Well, the map you've linked to is from 270towin.com, a site where you can fill in your own results. Either you or the dreamweavers at the Washington Examiner are indulging in a little bit of wishful thinking.
 
Nonsense. No way is Obama going to lose Ohio. For God's sake, people here are still putting up Kucinich signs.
 
Andalublue said:
Well, the map you've linked to is from 270towin.com, a site where you can fill in your own results. Either you or the dreamweavers at the Washington Examiner are indulging in a little bit of wishful thinking.
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No, Gallup took the numbers from their state polls and plugged them into the site.
 
*Sees Oregon and Pennsylvania going red.*

*Laughs*

A net negative approval rating for the president says nothing of his comparative chances. They may not believe he is doing a good job, but they may still believe he is a relatively better choice than a Republican candidate.
 
Pinkie said:
Nonsense. No way is Obama going to lose Ohio. For God's sake, people here are still putting up Kucinich signs.
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Then how did Bush win Ohio in '00 and '04?
 
So a map based on polling that has jack **** to actually do with the election means what?
 
There is a serious disconnect between what this editorial says and what Gallup actually says:

Gallup released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers yesterday, and the results should have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue very worried. If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215.
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Job approval does NOT equal a prediction for elections. Actually, Gallup says nothing about how the job approval will predict the 2012 election. Wishful thinking on the part of the OP and a piece of **** editor who clearly doesn't have an honest bone in his body.
 
Erod said:
Ten months away, Gallup polls say Obama is in great trouble in states he won in 2008.
Click to expand...


Yeah until they put the name Romney, Gingrich, or Santorum, in the Republican name spot then Obama will win lol.
 
Map fail
:failpail:
 
Pinkie said:
Nonsense. No way is Obama going to lose Ohio. For God's sake, people here are still putting up Kucinich signs.
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Sure, around Cleveland. (The most liberal part of the state, and where he's from -- go figger.)

Supposedly there was no way Ohio would go for Bush, too.
 
Hatuey said:
There is a serious disconnect between what this editorial says and what Gallup actually says:

Job approval does NOT equal a prediction for elections. Actually, Gallup says nothing about how the job approval will predict the 2012 election. Wishful thinking on the part of the OP and a piece of **** editor who clearly doesn't have an honest bone in his body.
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Exactly. In terms of elections, approval only matters relative to the other guy's approval.
 
Before the primaries, the average of the major polls put Romney within 1 to 2 points of Obama - Gingrich was in double digits.

Since the negative "mud-slinging" and the publishing of his tax returns, Romney has dropped significantly and Gingrich is out of site. The commentators repesenting the GOP "establishment" have been "brutal" with their comments about Newt.

When the media campaigning from all sides of the GOP is almost totally negative, what does that say about the quality of their candidates?
 
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I don't know if the map will end up quite this red, but simply looking at it it has the R over by 53. Now, what is interesting is what the R can lose on that map and still be over the 270. A lot of combos which still puts the R over the 270. This could end up being very close for the actual physical vote and yet a decsisve victory electorally. Possibly even a 2000 result with Obama having won the popular vote yet losing the electoral vote. It definetely makes for some interesting what if's and maybes.
 
00timh said:
I don't know if the map will end up quite this red, but simply looking at it it has the R over by 53. Now, what is interesting is what the R can lose on that map and still be over the 270. A lot of combos which still puts the R over the 270. This could end up being very close for the actual physical vote and yet a decsisve victory electorally. Possibly even a 2000 result with Obama having won the popular vote yet losing the electoral vote. It definetely makes for some interesting what if's and maybes.
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Obama has some serious problems in states he won in 2008, such as Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, New Mexico, Indiana, and possibly even in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Dismiss the numskulls in California and New York. They'd vote in communism. The swing states are ready to revolt.
 
The only thing that's surprising is Obama actually has a chance of re-election
 
Leave it to the Republicans to grab "defeat" out of the jaws of "victory!"
 
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Until they have a name next to the Republican label, this poll is just more worthless than the normal polls.
 
Meathead said:
The only thing that's surprising is Obama actually has a chance of re-election
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True. Never, ever overestimate Americans. Our last election was nothing more than an American Idol contest. We elected a guy with 20 minutes worth of experience for no reason whatsoever other than "wouldn't it be cool if.....".
 
While I consistently discount polls...especially before the Republicans have decided who their nominee will be...and especially this early in the game, I certainly hope something like this comes to pass.
 
No wonder that article is so ****ty...
Conn Carroll came to the Washington Examiner in April 2010, after serving for more than three years as The Heritage Foundation's Assistant Director for Strategic Communications.

While at Heritage, Conn created Heritage's rapid response blog, The Foundry, and its morning email product, The Morning Bell.
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soccerboy22 said:
Until they have a name next to the Republican label, this poll is just more worthless than the normal polls.
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The map is not based on Obama vs R, it is based solely on his approval rating, which is mostly irrelevant. Elections are candidates against each other, not against themselves. Obama has some difficulties to overcome to get elected, but this mean is entirely meaningless.
 
Redress said:
The map is not based on Obama vs R, it is based solely on his approval rating, which is mostly irrelevant. Elections are candidates against each other, not against themselves. Obama has some difficulties to overcome to get elected, but this mean is entirely meaningless.
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Truth, the fact I quickly read the article is my fault. Even then, the fact they assigned electoral votes based off the approval ratings of Obama is laughable. Even when, if you were do look at the actually numbers, they don't exactly match up.
 
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