I don't see a clear path for Gingrich

If Newt Gingrich does become the GOP nominee, I find it very hard to believe he could win the general election.

-For one, Obama's approval ratings have increased over the last month or so, and now he is just barely underwater. Meanwhile he continues to have higher favorablity ratings than Newt Gingrich does. Obama's favorability is about even to slightly positive. Gingrich is about -25. His approval will probably go down and Gingrich's up once the GOP settles on a candidate. I don't think it will be enough to equalize them though.

Gingrich favorablity
Obama favorablity
Obama approval ratings

-Second the demographics of important states are shifting over to the Democratic side. The Southwestern states and Virginia are going to be much harder for the GOP to win this year than four years ago due to increasing latino population and extreme growth in the cities of Northern Virginia. This is reflected in current polling, which has Gingrich down by double digits in each of those places, and Democrats over performing in these states compared to the entire country in the 2010 elections. (Bennet and Reid keeping their Senate seats.)

Losing the Southwest and Virginia makes winning for the GOP very unlikely. If Obama takes Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Virginia, (all of which polls have shown him with significant leads in), Gingrich would lose even if he took the unlikely combination of Florida, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and all the other McCain states Obama still wins. Obviously, polling this early doesn't mean anything in and of itself, but it is consistent with what is expected considering demographics and growth trends.

Electoral Map

-Thirdly, according to recent polls he is losing the swing states of Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Missouri, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Not only that, but he has posted deficits in Republican strongholds of South Carolina, Tennessee, South Dakota, Texas, and Kentucky. He also posted just single digit leads in Nebraska and his home state of Georgia. I don't expect him to lose any of those states, but the fact that so many polls show him having such trouble cannot mean well for him. Once again, these polls don't necessarily matter right now and could easily change, but they do show what a huge whole he would be starting out in.

Mitt Romney on the other hand is polling much stronger in all of these places and has the ability to withstand the loss of the Southwest and Virginia. Do to his moderate perception, his father's legacy, and his home region, he has the unique ability to put states into play that the other candidates couldn't. These would include Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and possibly even Connecticut.

-Fourthly, this whole that he is in will not be as easy for him to climb out of as some famous comebacks in history. Gingrich is a known quality. He has been pretty much a household name for two decades. Large name recognition and high unfavorablity is a bad combination for a candidate. Once people form an opinion about someone it becomes fairly hard to change, and the opinion only strengthens over time.

Of course, the election is still almost a year away. Literally anything can happen between now and then. But Gingrich starts out in a huge, huge whole against the current President. Although I'd say Romney would start out in a virtual tie against Obama, I'd peg Gingrich at beginning as about an 80-20 underdog.

If you have any thoughts or criticisms please share.

I dont see Obama winning Virginia, New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado honestly. One or two of those maybe but all four? I dont think so.

If Romney wants to win, he needs to act like it. Hes running not to lose. Romney made a tremendous mistake in that he is acting as though hes already running in the general election against Obama. Hes forgotten he has to present a compelling case why hes also better than his opponents in the primary. Electability isnt enough. He appears to be running the moderate playbook that McCain used. Hes forgotten to at least make an appearance of concern for conservative causes. If he cant do that in the election, hows he going to do it when hes President? This is not to say that he wont, but hes giving the appearance that he wont, and in politics, you cannot ignore the base and expect to win the primary...and Romney is doing exactly that.

OpportunityCost said:

I dont see Obama winning Virginia, New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado honestly. One or two of those maybe but all four? I dont think so.

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I don't necessarily either, but there is certainly a chance to win any of those. I don't think Gingrich wins all the other swing states I mentioned either. Overall, Obama has many more paths to victory.

Ill tell you something on a personal level, I wish Illinois did an electoral split like a few other states. Then people would realize Chicago distorts the voting picture of Illinois pretty badly. As a downstater in Illinois I feel like my Senatorial, State Official and Presidential votes in general elections are absolutely wasted. At least with a split, a truer picture of candidate support would emerge.

Last election Giannoulias (Senate candidate) won exactly one county: Cook. He lost narrowly to Kirk.
Quinn won 3 counties and was elected Governor.

Being from St Louis, you ever feel the same way about Missouri?

November is a long time away. The GOP nomination could be contested right up to the middle of its summer convention. If the Strait of Hormuz situation intensifies and the President handles it well, his position will be strengthened and attention perhaps diverted from his domestic record.

There is no path for Newt.....why do you think that us Liberals love him so much? Obama would wipe the electoral map with him in Bob Dole style.

OpportunityCost said:

Ill tell you something on a personal level, I wish Illinois did an electoral split like a few other states. Then people would realize Chicago distorts the voting picture of Illinois pretty badly. As a downstater in Illinois I feel like my Senatorial, State Official and Presidential votes in general elections are absolutely wasted. At least with a split, a truer picture of candidate support would emerge.

Last election Giannoulias (Senate candidate) won exactly one county: Cook. He lost narrowly to Kirk.
Quinn won 3 counties and was elected Governor.

Being from St Louis, you ever feel the same way about Missouri?

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Not exactly. Most of our statewide races come down to the wire with KC and STl balancing out the rest of the state pretty well. I've never really had a wasted vote in the election. I can definitely see how you would though. It's a problem I don't exactly know the answer to.

disneydude said:

There is no path for Newt.....why do you think that us Liberals love him so much? Obama would wipe the electoral map with him in Bob Dole style.

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Don't tell us that, because that would cause Newt to lose nod. You don't want to do that!

Amigo said:

Don't tell us that, because that would cause Newt to lose nod. You don't want to do that!

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Oh Please.....the point of sites like this is not to sway voters......I don't expect to change a single vote here. This site exists to give honest opinion and debate. I absolutely want Newt to get the nomination because he will fail miserably.


This is exactly why:

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/gingrich-fate-rises-does-obama-133152405.html

Anagram said:

If Newt Gingrich does become the GOP nominee, I find it very hard to believe he could win the general election...

If you have any thoughts or criticisms please share.

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The Republican "establishment" have read the polls and they are in full agreement. Watch them close ranks around Romney and do anything/everything possible to undermine Gingrich's campaign in Florida!

I don't see any of the four who were on the podium last night making it in the next election. The Republican Party has been split up through the machinations of groups like the Evangelicals, the Tea Party leaving the original GOP trying to locate a man or woman who can stay within the agenda of individual rights for all Americans. I am part of that last group and started my political actions with Ike in 1953 when I was 21 years old.

My definition of a Republican was defined by men like Wm F. Buckley and Barry Goldwater. They spoke firmly for the kind of civil rights that all Americans must be allowed to enjoy. I've always been aware of the plight of women when an unwanted pregnancy was a reason for punishment and a parole of 18 years handed out to all of us. Senator Goldwater's wife started Planned Parenthood where birth control and early health issues were found so that if a woman kept the pregnancy going, could have the best possible health care offered.

There was a period after WW2 where the John Birch Society tried to make an ongoing war with Communism by issuing Christian threats to all Americans who did not cooperate. Many of us did not take this seriously due to the fact that not all Americans are Christians. That seemed to quiet down until the growth of Televangelists began to use the TV to sell their brand of God. We, who had worked the elections in our districts for many years knew that many Christians did not vote and not finding politics of interest, did not understand the Constitution or the way our government operated.

President Bush 43 handed out federal grants to the churches ending the separation of church and state and brought into the voting booths literally millions of voters who followed the words of their Ministers amd Priests. It brought him the needed votes and he won two terms. It also grouped the religious right as another part but not inclusive in the GOP.

Two years ago, another group stood up and behind Sarah Palin called the Tea Party who seem to want an ongoing war with Islam. Even in the smallest meeting of friends, these three divisions alway start an argument as to which represent the Republican Party. Sadly, the National Republican Committee blended the together under the rules of the New Testament and the final agenda was set in cement. This left several millions of us out in the cold. The base of the old GOP has not been heard for many years and we are feeling annoyed that some phony terrible new items have been added to our Party.

There is a movement to go ahead and allow the last 3 or 4 Republican candidates to hash it out on television while the RNC plus a large segment of the original GOP leaders can come up with some other candidates who could throw their hat into the final days of the campaign.

Our party must be open to all Americans who are willing to respect the individual rights of all Americans. We must leave the racism and homophobia out of our work for a winning agenda. This whole mess about abortions can be cleared up by simply not having an abortion if they offend you. If Marijuana is legalized we all have the choice not to use it.

Gingrich is not a conservative - but a political opportunist who excells during the public televised debates.

The problem is that it takes more far more than good oratory skills to be president of the US - ask Obama!

nota bene said:

November is a long time away. The GOP nomination could be contested right up to the middle of its summer convention. If the Strait of Hormuz situation intensifies and the President handles it well, his position will be strengthened and attention perhaps diverted from his domestic record.

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Of course, this prediction is only if things stay pretty much as they are. If Obama handle's everything well his position is only strengthened. On the other hand if there are less fortuitous events for him, like the healthcare bill is overturned, there's another economic crisis, or we invade Canada, then Gingrich could have a chance to comeback.

jgarden47 said:

The Republican "establishment" have read the polls and they are in full agreement. Watch them close ranks around Romney and do anything/everything possible to undermine Gingrich's campaign in Florida!

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Reading the polls is no different than watching FOX and MSNBC because those two networks tell people what to think.

Romney is a certain 48% lose. Gingrich could be a 51% win or a 45% lose. Thus, Romney maintains the status quo including the make up of Congress. Gingrich is the winner-takes all VERY LONG shot.

Which game to Republicans want to play. Bigger gamble means a potential for a bigger win, but more likely a bigger lose. It's like Vegas, they higher the potential payout the higher the odds you lose it all. So play craps with Romney with Obama the house? Or put your money an 30-1 payout snake eyes?

That is the choice Republicans now have. Go for it all and more likely lose it all - or lose and maintain partisan gridlock.

The reason the choices are so poor for Republicans is because the smartest ones recognized the demographics and attitude of the media combined makes it essentially impossible to beat Obama. So they are waiting for 2016 and beyond.

joko104 said:

Reading the polls is no different than watching FOX and MSNBC because those two networks tell people what to think.

Romney is a certain 48% lose. Gingrich could be a 51% win or a 45% lose. Thus, Romney maintains the status quo including the make up of Congress. Gingrich is the winner-takes all VERY LONG shot.

Which game to Republicans want to play. Bigger gamble means a potential for a bigger win, but more likely a bigger lose. It's like Vegas, they higher the potential payout the higher the odds you lose it all. So play craps with Romney with Obama the house? Or put your money an 30-1 payout snake eyes?

That is the choice Republicans now have. Go for it all and more likely lose it all - or lose and maintain partisan gridlock.

The reason the choices are so poor for Republicans is because the smartest ones recognized the demographics and attitude of the media combined makes it essentially impossible to beat Obama. So they are waiting for 2016 and beyond.

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I don't agree with your analysis. Even if Romney cannot generate the same amount of enthusiasm as Gingrich, (a generous assumption considering Gingrich's abysmal ratings among non-republicans), Romney has an electoral advantage. He has the ability to compete in blue states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Michigan. His favorability ratings are much higher and he has more appeal to independents. Choosing Gingrich is almost a sure loss, barring something extraordinary happening, while Romney at least makes it close.