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How Does Huntsman Win?

Cameron

Cameron

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All of the candidates above him get ugly and attack each other, Gingrich's surge would have to end and fairly quickly. If he does nto do well by at least Florida, he is probably toast.
 
With the not-Romney crowd posed to vote for any not-Romney candidate and Newt putting his foot in his mouth several times a week and making even bolder questionable statements than usual, the choice for not-Romney voter could come down to Paul or Huntsman. Personally, I think the far right would bypass Paul for Huntsman if it came to that.
 
I think the following might do it:

Paul wins Iowa. The buzz from this allows either him or Gingrich to win in New Hampshire. After losing South Carolina and Florida, Romney drops out of the race. Huntsman, however, stubbornly stays on.

Gingrich gradually becomes less popular and the establishment starts to worry about Paul, so they turn to Huntsman. Perhaps Romney endorses him as well. Huntsman begins winning states on the coasts and west. Eventually Gingrich drops out, endorsing Huntsman. Huntsman is elected at the convention.

Definitely a long shot.
 
The only chance Huntsman has is to do just well enough to make it to the convention with no clear nominee. In a brokered convention the stogey smokers make the decisions. They could opt for Huntsman out of sheer hope that he could defeat Obama. This is taking into consideration a very damaged Romney and Gingrich from the long nomination fight. I would give him about as much chance as me winning the lotto tonight.
 
He should of camped in Iowa instead of NH imo.
 
Short of Romney dropping out of the race, or an alien abduction, I don't see it happening, even though I personally like Huntsman better than Romney.
 
He's smug and condescending, and it's not likely he will ever get out of single digits.
 
Krhazy said:
Let's say for a second that it is even a possibility. How does it happen.

Just to get it out of the way...
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The GOP primary-goers are smarter than most people thought.
 
Redress said:
He has a much better chance of making some sort of splash in NH than Iowa.
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Yeah, he has no chance in Iowa. Waay too conservative and too many evangelicals.
 
AdamT said:
Yeah, he has no chance in Iowa. Waay too conservative and too many evangelicals.
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He is at 5% in Iowa and doesn't campaign there. I think he would of done better there then he is currently doing in NH (10%). Just my opinion on it.
 
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Heading to bed in a moment but will post two scenarios that I could see leading to a Huntsman nominations. Both are long shots but FAR more plausible now then they were even a 2 months ago.
 
Whoever the actual "winner" is will pick him as VP to have an actual conservative on the ticket.
 
Okay, I see two scenario’s playing out to give Huntsman a chance. Both of these scenarios have one interlinking theory. That theory is that Bachmann and Perry already had their hand at the “Not-Romney” and have flamed out and will be hard pressed to regain traction, and that Santorum simply cannot garner enough traction at all.

The first of the two scenarios is the “Everyone else flames out “ theory. It goes something like this….

Romney is clearly someone the base just absolutely doesn’t want to get behind for a myriad of reasons. Newt is the current hot ticket, but he’s getting hammered hard and there’s a lot of question regarding how much he can avoid a big collapse. In this scenario Ron Paul needs to take Iowa and Huntsman (and possibly Paul) need to finish ahead of Newt in New Hampshire. This combined with any kind of “momentum” killing gaffe on the part of Newt (and its likely this is needed along with the losses) paves the way for the next “Not Romney” to step up at the last minute.

This leaves Paul and Huntsman as your choices for who to throw in behind. I think there’s a large portion of the base who are just wary of Paul, and I think even if he got a bit of a spike that it’d die down quickly due to his habit of being able to say something on the extreme end of an issue in a debate or in the news that generally causes various groups to go “….and now I just can’t support him”. This would be the chance for Huntsman, if he continues his new campaign strategy which finally seems to be aimed at pushing his conservative credentials and not making it out like conservatism is a bad word, to step in as the “Not Romney”. There’s also the chance that if the establishment see’s support somewhat swinging to Paul they may hedge their bet, thinking they could get enough support from both the establishment AND the more conservative base by going with Huntsman and essentially start shifting support from Romney as well.

The second of the two scenarios is “Chaos requires a NEW Romney” theory. It goes like this and follows the Nate Silver plan….

Gingrich or Paul win Iowa and Romney does poorly, perhaps going as low as #4 in the state even behind Bachmann. In NH Romney doesn’t win and Huntsman manages to land in the top 3, with Paul and/or Gingrich taking a high spot (and hopefully whichever one doesn’t win Iowa). This leads to a four person race with Gingrich, Romney, Paul, and Huntsman hanging back all still there. The issue is that Romney isn’t getting traction and Gingrich and Paul are surging. The Establishment then switches support from Romney to Huntsman, hoping that he doesn’t have the stigma that Romney has and can stop the other to surging candidates. Essentially, they begin to push Huntsman as the “more consistently conservative Romney”. At which point he goes on to contend with either Paul or Newt depending on which one knocks the other out.

Those are basically his only two scenarios and both are requiring a LOT to happen around him that he has no control over. I don’t think either are likely, but those are the two most plausible scenarios in my mind.
 
^Said pretty much everything I was going to say.

fwiw, Huntsman's chances are now up to 7.5% on Intrade, putting him tied in 3rd place (with Ron Paul, whose chances are probably waaaaaaaay lower than that in reality, imo).
 
Dav said:
^Said pretty much everything I was going to say.

fwiw, Huntsman's chances are now up to 7.5% on Intrade, putting him tied in 3rd place (with Ron Paul, whose chances are probably waaaaaaaay lower than that in reality, imo).
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Just as an aside, people put too much weight on inTrade. It has a high track record, but that is measuring results on the night of the actual election when just about any one who follows politics can get at least 90 % right. This far out, well, there predictive power is not so great.
 
Have Huntsman, Bachmann and Santorum given up any hope of winning the Virginia Primary, couldn't get enough signatures to register, or what?

Virginia Primary Ballots Won’t Include Huntsman, Bachmann, or Santorum

"No matter how the primaries are going in early March, by the time Virginia casts its ballots on March 6, the choices will be limited to Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Ron Paul… at most. That’s because the campaigns of Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Jon Huntsman didn’t submit enough petition signatures by yesterday’s deadline to earn ballot space.

According to the Richmond Times-Dispatch, a minimum of “10,000 registered voters, with 400 from each of the 11 Congressional districts,” must sign the petitions.

But wait, there’s more! “The state GOP decided that candidates who submit at least 15,000 signatures of registered voters on valid petitions with at least 600 signatures from each of the 11 districts will be deemed to have met the qualifications” for party certification, which must be delivered by next Tuesday at 5:00 PM.

At the moment, it appears only Mitt Romney actually cleared the party certification threshold. Paul only turned in 14,361 signatures, Perry submitted 11,911, and Gingrich 11,050.

I gather certification is up to the party, which probably imagined itself spending the weekend weeding out suspicious petition signatures (Merry Christmas, guys!) but will now have to decide if it wants to stick with its declared standards, and leave Virginia voters faced with a choice between Mitt Romney, Mitt Romney, and Mitt Romney."

It appears the Huntsman's fans in Virginia won't have the opportunity to vote for him. Who's your next pick?
 
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