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Mitt Versus Newt Won't Be Like Hillary Versus Barack

Redress

Redress

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Mitt Versus Newt Won't Be Like Hillary Versus Barack - Yahoo! News

Now let's start this out with noting the fact this is an opinion/analysis piece and not hard news. Do not take everything it says as a given and there are some areas I disagree with. However, a couple things caught my eye and I thought where worthy of discussion.

The New York Times' Trip Gabriel and Jeff Zeleny report that if neither Romney or Gingrich have decisive victories in the early voting states, "Gingrich could be faced with the ultimate challenge to his campaign: the need to survive a war of attrition of the sort for which he is unprepared at the moment." Romney is organized in Alabama, Indiana, Delaware, and lots of other later-voting states, while Gingrich's campaign didn't file the paperwork in time to get on the Missouri caucus ballot. The Washington Post's Philip Rucker, too, reports that Gingrich's campaign is trying to create a huge organization in just a couple of weeks, with staffers sending all-caps emergency e-mails to Republicans in Ohio to get enough signatures to get on that state's ballot.
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Now this is pretty important. With a bunch of early states either giving proportional delegates or having had their delegate count halved by the RNC, there is a very real chance that it might take until the middle states to get a winner. If Gingrich is not prepared, he could fair well early then watch his campaign die due to unpreparedness. However, early successes could get enough national exposure to make the lack of preparation in later states a big deal. Still, it could be interesting.

A long primary gave Obama a lot of time to introduce himself to people who had never heard of him, while a long primary gives Gingrich a chance to remind people why he was run out of town in 1998
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While this is opinion, I think it is very likely true. America found Obama likable for the most part, and so the long primary was something of a benefit. It is hard to describe Gingrich as likable, and the opposite is often true.
 
I can't remember where I read it, but someone else brought up a good point: the fact that several key states -- like Florida -- moved their primaries up this year has left a big gap between the ME FIRST elections and the Super Tuesday elections. That long stretch without primaries could blunt the advantage of a good showing in the early primaries by slowing momentum, and it would give an advantage to better organized/funded campaigns (i.e., Mitt Romney) who would have time to regroup and address points that hurt them in the first round.

In a typical election I would say that Gingrich's lack of ground game would doom his chances, but this is a very weird cycle.
 
The "likeability" of Gingrich in polls is falling dramatically quickly. His campaign seems built upon a single concept - that he is some master debater that would crush Obama in debates. Yet I think Obama would make hamburger out of Gingrich more than most the other Republican candidates because Gingrich is way too arrogant to watch his mouth plus quickly becomes sneering and abrasive. It's be Gingrich trying to sneer down at the younger president and the president mostly just smiling and cajoling the bitter old man in a polite placating sense.

I don't see Gingrich holding the lead and see a potential of Bachman and Perry resurfacing as contenders.

There is somewhat a respect building for Romney in that the guy just won't quit and he keeps his composure through it all. There also is almost a sympathy factor building for him too. The others rise and follow, but Romney just keeps smiling with his perfect hair and prodding along.
 
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Redress said:
Mitt Versus Newt Won't Be Like Hillary Versus Barack - Yahoo! News

Now let's start this out with noting the fact this is an opinion/analysis piece and not hard news. Do not take everything it says as a given and there are some areas I disagree with. However, a couple things caught my eye and I thought where worthy of discussion.



Now this is pretty important. With a bunch of early states either giving proportional delegates or having had their delegate count halved by the RNC, there is a very real chance that it might take until the middle states to get a winner. If Gingrich is not prepared, he could fair well early then watch his campaign die due to unpreparedness. However, early successes could get enough national exposure to make the lack of preparation in later states a big deal. Still, it could be interesting.



While this is opinion, I think it is very likely true. America found Obama likable for the most part, and so the long primary was something of a benefit. It is hard to describe Gingrich as likable, and the opposite is often true.
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I disagree. I do know why Newt was run out of town, but if you look at the history of polling, Mitt's percentage has been stuck at 20 throughout the cycle. Face it, Republicans don't care who can't keep it in his pants, just as long as it's another Republican, and not Clinton or another Democrat. Newt is going to win the nomination. You heard it from me.
 
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joko104 said:
The "likeability" of Gingrich in polls is falling dramatically quickly.
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Really? Fact is, despite his adultery, and the rest of his baggage. He has the highest favorability rating of all the candidates. And he is going up, not down. Romney however...

BRKP_12042011Positive_Intensity.jpg

His campaign seems built upon a single concept - that he is some master debater that would crush Obama in debates.
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Not correct. You obviously don't understand the Republican Party. He is winning, because he is viewed as an acceptable candidate who is not Romney. His debate performance is just a pluss.

I don't see Gingrich holding the lead and see a potential of Bachman and Perry resurfacing as contenders.
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Bachmann is bath**** crazy and Republicans know it. That is why she was never higher than 15%. Perry is killed twice. He has shown that he is not prepared to become President. That will be hard to overcome.

Actually, if Karl Rove, Bush, Romney and the rest destroy Gingrich. Then Romney is going to win, while Gingrich will fall slowly in the polls.

There is somewhat a respect building for Romney in that the guy just won't quit and he keeps his composure through it all. There also is almost a sympathy factor building for him too. The others rise and follow, but Romney just keeps smiling with his perfect hair and prodding along.
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You get respect for Romney, because he doesn't quit? Why should he quit, he still have a shot for the nomination? Quitting would be silly.

His likability is dropping, so there is no sympathy movement building up.
 
I think that no matter what, they will both be on the Republican ticket. It's just a matter of who is top dog.
 
One of the reasons that Gingrich's staff walked away from him this spring was that his trip to the Greek islands didn't convince them that he was willing to do the "heavy lifting" required to create a political infrastructure in the primary states. Apparently Gingrich thinks that since his is a "campaign of ideas," he doesn't need to be encumbered by local organizations.

Given Gingrich's relatively late entry into the campaign and his recent climb in the polls, after the demise of Herman Cain, he never had the finances to compete with Romney in developing state organizations across the country.
 
Looks like a Gingrich bad, Romney good thread. Nothing bad here about Romney.....I'll keep looking.
 
American said:
Looks like a Gingrich bad, Romney good thread. Nothing bad here about Romney.....I'll keep looking.
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Looks like you are wrong. It is a looking into the horserace aspect of the primaries thread with the 2 candidates currently hands down most likely to win.
 
Redress said:
Looks like you are wrong. It is a looking into the horserace aspect of the primaries thread with the 2 candidates currently hands down most likely to win.
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I'm still open, still looking for the Romney anal exam from you lefties. He's been getting a pass from everyone. But all I've seen so far from the left is their arm up everyone's ass to their elbow, except Romney.
 
American said:
I'm still open, still looking for the Romney anal exam from you lefties. He's been getting a pass from everyone. But all I've seen so far from the left is their arm up everyone's ass to their elbow, except Romney.
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Of course, they have a vested interest, they are gambling on him being a closet liberal.
 
DarkWizard12 said:
Of course, they have a vested interest, they are gambling on him being a closet liberal.
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You are assuming we think he will win the general. We do not.
 
DarkWizard12 said:
Of course, they have a vested interest, they are gambling on him being a closet liberal.
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I add a bit more to redress' response...you seem to think liberals want romny to win....

You like newt because hes further right...some like romney because hes more moderate...nothing sinister in that..
 
Redress said:
You are assuming we think he will win the general. We do not.
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No he is not, and American is correct.

Liberals think Romney is a closet liberal, so he is getting a free pass on all his statements. Not a liberal, but I noticed that Karl Rove criticized Trump of having policies that will create a trade war. But he never criticized Romney, who supports the same policies.

Liberals want Romney, because they know that the base hate him, and hence will probably lose. But if he wins, he is a closet liberal so he will do less damage.
 
Camlon said:
No he is not, and American is correct.

Liberals think Romney is a closet liberal, so he is getting a free pass on all his statements. Not a liberal, but I noticed that Karl Rove criticized Trump of having policies that will create a trade war. But he never criticized Romney, who supports the same policies.

Liberals want Romney, because they know that the base hate him, and hence will probably lose. But if he wins, he is a closet liberal so he will do less damage.
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I'd have to disagree on that. Liberals don't want Romney to win because we think he would stand the best chance of any of them of beating Obama. We don't think he's a liberal by any means. He's a moderate conservative who will say or do anything to get elected. That makes him entirely unpredictable which is not a quality that recommends him for high office.

He's not getting much air play because he's boring as hell. He doesn't say anything and for some reason the other Republican candidates refuse to take him on.

Bottom line: it's YOUR primary. It's your job to pick your candidate. Once you pick one THEN we'll ****'em up. :)
 
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lpast said:
I add a bit more to redress' response...you seem to think liberals want romny to win....

You like newt because hes further right...some like romney because hes more moderate...nothing sinister in that..
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Of course they do, the guy is a closet liberal, nothing better to a democrat than to go to a ballot box to find that the conservatives already lost.
 
Redress said:
You are assuming we think he will win the general. We do not.
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Oh come on, even a far lefty like you has doubts about Obama. He ****ed up so bad, it's embarrassing. He didn't even keep his promises to the left. You people are going to have to put five clamps on your collective noses to go vote for that bungling fool. He was suppose to usher in the "New" New Deal, and instead didn't dismantle a single Bush initiative or get UHC through without contest.
 
Camlon said:
No he is not, and American is correct.

Liberals think Romney is a closet liberal, so he is getting a free pass on all his statements. Not a liberal, but I noticed that Karl Rove criticized Trump of having policies that will create a trade war. But he never criticized Romney, who supports the same policies.

Liberals want Romney, because they know that the base hate him, and hence will probably lose. But if he wins, he is a closet liberal so he will do less damage.
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I always love it when conservatives tell me what I think. Why is it you guys never, ever get it right?
 
I want a candidate that can win the election. I can't see Gingrich or Romney beating Obama in the general; Gingrich has too much baggage and Romney can't inspire his own base or take a big enough bite out of Obama's. We need a candidate that is, somehow, both more appealing to the conservative base and more appealing to independent voters. I don't think any of the front runners have it.
 
Redress said:
I always love it when conservatives tell me what I think. Why is it you guys never, ever get it right?
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I didn't say you. I said liberals. I have heard many liberals say that they are less afraid of Romney becuase he is a moderate. If you actually look at what he is saying, then it is no different from the other candidates. The difference, liberals think he is lying to please the Tea Party, which is what I told you. A closet liberal.
 
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