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with the new GOP rules how long will it go until a winner is decided?

MrMindSpeaker

MrMindSpeaker

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im curious this year to see how long it will take to find out who will win the nomination sense its the first year with the new GOP primary rules.

"Fifth, consider also that the GOP changed its winner take all rules. Now, any state that holds a primary or caucus before April 1 must award their delegates on a proportional basis, rather than the winner-take-all method. This means that a front runner with, say, a 38 percent plurality in a six-way split field will get only 38 percent of the delegates instead of 100 percent. This will keep second tier candidates in the hunt and deny the front-runner the steamroller effect that usually delivers a de facto winner in the GOP by February."


here is a link to the article talking about this
GOP Primary Deadlock? - Rasmussen Reports™
 
Given how the race has shaken up (25% for Romney, 75% for "Anyone Else"), it's conceivable that the nomination may not be decided until the convention. 2012 is certainly the most-likely election to do so since the primaries became the dominant selection method. If it goes to a convention, it's anyone's game too. Someone could even get drafted as a compromise choice at that point. Christie, Daniels, Palin? One thing's for sure: we're unlikely to see candidates drop like flies as quickly as in years past. As a voter in a late primary state, I'm enthused about the prospect of my vote having a greater potential impact on the outcome. In the last four contested primaries I had the misfortune of voting in a late primary state, leaving me free to "make a statement" if I chose, the nominee having already been decided each time. I'm excited!
 
Incidentally, I haven't heard anyone talking about the possibility of the nomination going all the way to the convention next year, which I consider not unlikely at all. Personalities and intra-party grudges will be magnified as the primaries inch closer to that possibility. As - and if - various candidates drop out of the race (early or otherwise), who do you think they will endorse and/or urge their delegates to switch to?

Herman Cain has all but endorsed Mitt Romney. The possibility he drops out before the Iowa causes remains.

Gary Johnson, Michelle Bachmann and Rick Santorum will be the most likely to drop out first. To which front runner do you suppose they will appeal?

Ron Paul's followers, to me, seem to be as likely to stay home than vote for anyone but Paul so I have absolutely no idea who those delegates might swing to in the event Paul drops out early.

If Rick Perry crashes and burns I suspect he will endorse Newt Gingrich. I wonder if the reverse is true, however.

What are your thoughts?
 
I suspect after Florida some of the second tier candidates(ones not named Romney or Gingrich it looks like) will start dropping out fast and things will get much clearer. I don't see it going all the way.
 
Blackstone said:
Incidentally, I haven't heard anyone talking about the possibility of the nomination going all the way to the convention next year, which I consider not unlikely at all. Personalities and intra-party grudges will be magnified as the primaries inch closer to that possibility. As - and if - various candidates drop out of the race (early or otherwise), who do you think they will endorse and/or urge their delegates to switch to?

Herman Cain has all but endorsed Mitt Romney. The possibility he drops out before the Iowa causes remains.

Gary Johnson, Michelle Bachmann and Rick Santorum will be the most likely to drop out first. To which front runner do you suppose they will appeal?

Ron Paul's followers, to me, seem to be as likely to stay home than vote for anyone but Paul so I have absolutely no idea who those delegates might swing to in the event Paul drops out early.

If Rick Perry crashes and burns I suspect he will endorse Newt Gingrich. I wonder if the reverse is true, however.

What are your thoughts?
Click to expand...

i do see cain supporting romney but i really dont know about the rest.

however i did see an interesting interview today on fox with Ron Paul where he would not say to them that he would not run as an independent if he did not get the nomination.
then then he actually said if newt could start doing more things like he has been doing , like wanting to audit the fed, he said he might come around to him! i find that very odd, especially after paul's last campaign add!
 
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