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Romney may have just picked up the nomination.

cpwill

cpwill

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Romney has always hit his ceiling in the mid-ish 20's. Much of the race thus far has been focused on the other 75 ish percent of the party, swinging around attempting to find a NotRomney to coalesce around. Barring an amazing surge by Gingrich, Cain may have been their last, best hope for a NotRomney candidate to secure enough support to consistently beat Romney's numbers in the key lead states.

Cain is in serious trouble. IF it can be positively demonstrated that the women arrayed against him (and most especially the one who gave the press release) have been coopted or organized to attack him, then this attack would rebound in his favor. IF, however, (as is seeming more likely), the issue remains somewhat muddled, eventually coming down to the he-said-she-said, then this places a heavy cap on Cain's rising support, and will reverse the flow in a steady drip.

SO. Where will the crowd go next. Perry and Bachman have both risen and fallen. Santorum remains Cain's antithesis - with a depth of policy that is perfectly designed to appeal to conservatives, but personally unappealing. Gingrich faces his own ceiling issues because of his history and the earlier comments about Ryan.

And. At This Point In Time. JUST before voters begin to stream away from the latest flavor of the month, Romney (not exactly known for his boldness) comes out with an entitlement reform plan that is the test for leadership in this race, and in line with the ideals of the Ryan Budget, winning the praise of of the editorial staff of the Wall Street Journal and National Review. This positions him to be enough of an acceptable candidate to pick up enough of the streaming Republican voters to put him ahead of the competition in a way that will be very difficult to beat.

The timing of this was slick. Holding this in reserve cost him on the front end, and probably contributed to the general distrust conservatives will always have for him, but I think it'll pay dividends for him electorally.
 
Newt is next in line to try and become the "NotRomney"

If it fails for him, then I think the only possible "NotRomney's" left that have even a sliver of a shot would be Huntsman and Paul. Bachmann had her shot, and I just can't see Santorum having any shot what so ever ... even worse than those other two.

Romney's just holding tight and weathering the storm.
 
Newt has way too much baggage to be a serious contender.

The only real alternative is Huntsman.
 
AdamT said:
Newt has way too much baggage to be a serious contender.

The only real alternative is Huntsman.
Click to expand...

Huntsman will never be an alternative. If conservatives reject Romney because they think he's too moderate, they will run from Huntsman.
 
AdamT said:
Newt has way too much baggage to be a serious contender.
Click to expand...

Newt's baggage is not too much that he couldn't potentially win the nomination, and we're talking about the nomination not the general.

The only real alternative is Huntsman.
Click to expand...

Huntsman would do far better in a general, but Newt's far more likely in the primary which is what this thread is about.
 
Gill said:
Huntsman will never be an alternative. If conservatives reject Romney because they think he's too moderate, they will run from Huntsman.
Click to expand...

See, I disagree here but only in a very specific scenario.

As I documented in another thread, there's one general path for Huntsman to potentially get the nomination. To summarize...

The current "NotRomney" (Cain) needed to fail (which he's in the midst of potentially doing) just as the past ones, Perry and Bachmann, failed.

That would leave Newt, Paul, Huntsman, and Santorum as the choices for the next "NotRomney". Out of that list Newt is the next most likely to become the "NotRomney".

Should Newt flame out, that leaves the remaining three. I have a hard time seeing Paul truly embraced significantly enough to challenge Romney. And I think Santorum has already screwed up his chances of getting on as a "NotRomney" and IF he managed to get that position for a while I think he'd lose it faster than any others.

IF Huntsman can mimic a McCain type run early in the primaries where he pulls a suprise victory, and Newt begins to falter as the "NotRomney" I could see Huntsman potentially being the "NotRomney" candidate.

While they're both PRESENTED as "moderates", I don't believe Huntsman has the other problem many associate with Romney which is simply the untrustworthy, slimy feel that he gives off. Additionally, I think if Huntsman's campaign gets their head out of their ass and are able to articulate that he and his state managed to:

1. Pass customer, market driven health care reform
2. Created the most business friendly environment in the nation
3. Passed record tax cuts
4. Increased state GDP and lowered government spending as a percent of that GDP

I think he could make a compelling conservative case against Romney.

Is it a long shot? Yes. But right now I put him at about #4 most likely to get the nod over Romney. Cain is one, and slipping fast. Newt is two, and rising. Perry is three, and falling quickly unless he finds a way to resurge. Huntsman is four. Paul is five. Bachmann and Santorum are making up the rear.
 
Gill said:
Huntsman will never be an alternative. If conservatives reject Romney because they think he's too moderate, they will run from Huntsman.
Click to expand...

They run from Romney because he is too liberal. Huntsman is consistently moderate. He never signed on to a health care package like Romney did.

Huntsman just needs to prove he is electable.
 
Newt's baggage is not too much that he couldn't potentially win the nomination, and we're talking about the nomination not the general.
Click to expand...

You may be right, but I don't think so. If Newt ever approaches front-runner status the press and his opponents will have a warehouse of sh*t to use against him. It's not being used now because no one takes him seriously.

Huntsman would do far better in a general, but Newt's far more likely in the primary which is what this thread is about.
Click to expand...

Still think Huntsman is the only potential sleeper in this field. He's not as hardcore right as the TPers would like, but he doesn't have Romney's flip-flopping and O'Romneycare problems. He's kind of like a Romney 2.0.
 
cpwill said:
Romney has always hit his ceiling in the mid-ish 20's. Much of the race thus far has been focused on the other 75 ish percent of the party, swinging around attempting to find a NotRomney to coalesce around. Barring an amazing surge by Gingrich, Cain may have been their last, best hope for a NotRomney candidate to secure enough support to consistently beat Romney's numbers in the key lead states.

Cain is in serious trouble. IF it can be positively demonstrated that the women arrayed against him (and most especially the one who gave the press release) have been coopted or organized to attack him, then this attack would rebound in his favor. IF, however, (as is seeming more likely), the issue remains somewhat muddled, eventually coming down to the he-said-she-said, then this places a heavy cap on Cain's rising support, and will reverse the flow in a steady drip.

SO. Where will the crowd go next. Perry and Bachman have both risen and fallen. Santorum remains Cain's antithesis - with a depth of policy that is perfectly designed to appeal to conservatives, but personally unappealing. Gingrich faces his own ceiling issues because of his history and the earlier comments about Ryan.

And. At This Point In Time. JUST before voters begin to stream away from the latest flavor of the month, Romney (not exactly known for his boldness) comes out with an entitlement reform plan that is the test for leadership in this race, and in line with the ideals of the Ryan Budget, winning the praise of of the editorial staff of the Wall Street Journal and National Review. This positions him to be enough of an acceptable candidate to pick up enough of the streaming Republican voters to put him ahead of the competition in a way that will be very difficult to beat.

The timing of this was slick. Holding this in reserve cost him on the front end, and probably contributed to the general distrust conservatives will always have for him, but I think it'll pay dividends for him electorally.
Click to expand...

You just gave a congratulatory speech to romney for being much smarter than the rest of the republican field.

Look this was inevitable...the far right cannot win PERIOD...they are as unacceptable to america as the far right.
Did you guys honestly believe nutjobs like bachman and Paul were going to go anywhere...why are they even still in the race...just to bust cajones ?
The rinos are the only ones that can beat obama..romney increased his chances to win the primary and reduced his chances to beat obama with his Ryan like speech..
The rino Gingrich is the best choice...

Pay attention conservatives your beloved teaparty is failing on many levels...
 
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CriticalThought said:
They run from Romney because he is too liberal. Huntsman is consistently moderate. He never signed on to a health care package like Romney did.

Huntsman just needs to prove he is electable.
Click to expand...

That's the shocking thing with Huntsman.

He's pro-tax cuts across the board, businesses and people. He's pro-dergulation of business and business friendly laws. He's pro-2nd amendment rights. He's pro-life. He's pro-secure the boarder first. He's pro-consumer driven health care reform.

Yet he's apparently a moderate for supporting a regional environmental law, one he admits was a mistake, and for being in support of things that both were embraced by Ronald Reagan and/or Bush in 2000. Namely, AFTER securing the border possibly looking at a path to citizenship or some form and embracing a generalized non-nation building, non-interventionalist foreign policy (The exact same type Bush was pushing and lauded for by Conservatives in the 2000 campaign).

Perry's gone against conservative principles a fair number of times too...he's not considered a moderate. Santorum all but ****s on the notion of limited government intervention on peoples lives and even the constitution when it comes to pushing his social views; that's hardly any more consistantly conservative than Huntsman is.

That's honestly Huntsman's biggest issue. His presentation as a pure and simple "moderate" rather than as perhaps a "Fiscal Conservative" or even just a "moderate conservative" at worst. That, and his political teams strategy to seemingly avoid focusing and pushing his conservative credentials during the primary.
 
CriticalThought said:
They run from Romney because he is too liberal. Huntsman is consistently moderate. He never signed on to a health care package like Romney did.

Huntsman just needs to prove he is electable.
Click to expand...

He said he would consider mandates though in 08. So did Gingrich. Come to think of it republicans came up with the idea of mandates.
 
AdamT said:
Still think Huntsman is the only potential sleeper in this field. He's not as hardcore right as the TPers would like, but he doesn't have Romney's flip-flopping and O'Romneycare problems. He's kind of like a Romney 2.0.
Click to expand...

I think Huntsman's a sleeper, just one that is likely to go on sleeping. I do think, if he were to win the nomination and if he picked up a good across the board conservative VP, that he'd be the only candidate out of this field who I would put money on saying "He will beat Obama" rather than thinking it could go either way (or thinking Obama would win, in the case of someone like Bachmann). His best traits are all the things that people in the middle and on the right especially want to be the focus of this campaign...Economic and Job Growth.

He's someone that can articulate fiscal and governmental conservative in such a way that I think it could sway independents. He has a track record with his ideas actually WORKING that will appeal across the board. Has a track record on some of the most important conservative issues right now that is sterling which could help him motivate the right. And, his ambassadorship and distance from some more "controversial" issues on the Right makes it difficult for the Obama camp to try to smear him as a radical, ideologue, or extremist.

But right now I just see it being a slim chance for him to win the primary. Not an entirely impossible chance, but a slim one.

My ideal choice right now, based on reasonable guesses (rather than saying something like "Rubio" as VP when we have more reasons to think he wouldn't do it than he would), would be for a Huntsman Pres and Newt VP.
 
Zyphlin said:
Newt is next in line to try and become the "NotRomney"

If it fails for him, then I think the only possible "NotRomney's" left that have even a sliver of a shot would be Huntsman and Paul. Bachmann had her shot, and I just can't see Santorum having any shot what so ever ... even worse than those other two.

Romney's just holding tight and weathering the storm.
Click to expand...

Romney did the smart thing by staying low, but IMHO, he delivered the death blow to Perry's campaign when Perry attempted to get aggressive with him during one of the debates. He made Perry look like a bully and a dumbass.
 
99percenter said:
He said he would consider mandates though in 08. So did Gingrich. Come to think of it republicans came up with the idea of mandates.
Click to expand...

He did say he would consider it. However, in the end his support and his actions went towards a consumer focused, patient driven health care plan that wasn't just talked about but actually signed into law.

If we expect people to be conservative 100% of the time in 100% of the ways, even just in their thoughts as they formulate their stance on an issue, or else we're going to call them a moderate than Ronald Reagan was one of the greatest MODERATES, not conservatives, this country has ever seen. Strangely, I'm sure many of the conservatives who continue to laud Huntsman as nothing more than a moderate and point out at things he said rather than things he did primarily would try to explain why its "different" so as not to face the reality that even the pinnacle of modern conservatism wasn't ALWAYS conservative.
 
Zyphlin said:
That's the shocking thing with Huntsman.

He's pro-tax cuts across the board, businesses and people. He's pro-dergulation of business and business friendly laws. He's pro-2nd amendment rights. He's pro-life. He's pro-secure the boarder first. He's pro-consumer driven health care reform.

Yet he's apparently a moderate for supporting a regional environmental law, one he admits was a mistake, and for being in support of things that both were embraced by Ronald Reagan and/or Bush in 2000. Namely, AFTER securing the border possibly looking at a path to citizenship or some form and embracing a generalized non-nation building, non-interventionalist foreign policy (The exact same type Bush was pushing and lauded for by Conservatives in the 2000 campaign).

Perry's gone against conservative principles a fair number of times too...he's not considered a moderate. Santorum all but ****s on the notion of limited government intervention on peoples lives and even the constitution when it comes to pushing his social views; that's hardly any more consistantly conservative than Huntsman is.

That's honestly Huntsman's biggest issue. His presentation as a pure and simple "moderate" rather than as perhaps a "Fiscal Conservative" or even just a "moderate conservative" at worst. That, and his political teams strategy to seemingly avoid focusing and pushing his conservative credentials during the primary.
Click to expand...

I think Huntsman's biggest problem with the Republican Primary electorate is that Huntsman is a conservative but he is moderate in tone. The guy is simply too sane, reasonable, and frankly too nice to appeal to today's Republican Primary voters. It's not your record or positions that count with them, its how you come off.
 
SouthernDemocrat said:
I think Huntsman's biggest problem with the Republican Primary electorate is that Huntsman is a conservative but he is moderate in tone. The guy is simply too sane, reasonable, and frankly too nice to appeal to today's Republican Primary voters. It's not your record or positions that count with them, its how you come off.
Click to expand...

"Moderate in tone" may well be the best explanation in regards to how Huntsman is "moderate" that I've heard from anyone. In Tone or perhaps in Presentation. Which both is a bonus for him in the general but is hurting him in the primary, in part because his camp seems to either be unable or unwilling to try and actually accentuate his conservative credentials.
 
Zyphlin said:
"Moderate in tone" may well be the best explanation in regards to how Huntsman is "moderate" that I've heard from anyone. In Tone or perhaps in Presentation. Which both is a bonus for him in the general but is hurting him in the primary, in part because his camp seems to either be unable or unwilling to try and actually accentuate his conservative credentials.
Click to expand...

What amazes me is that Reagan was very moderate in tone. He was never mean-spirited and very seldom came off as angry. Republicans today revere Reagan almost like a religious figure, but they seem to forget that about him.
 
cpwill said:
Romney has always hit his ceiling in the mid-ish 20's. Much of the race thus far has been focused on the other 75 ish percent of the party, swinging around attempting to find a NotRomney to coalesce around. Barring an amazing surge by Gingrich, Cain may have been their last, best hope for a NotRomney candidate to secure enough support to consistently beat Romney's numbers in the key lead states.

Cain is in serious trouble. IF it can be positively demonstrated that the women arrayed against him (and most especially the one who gave the press release) have been coopted or organized to attack him, then this attack would rebound in his favor. IF, however, (as is seeming more likely), the issue remains somewhat muddled, eventually coming down to the he-said-she-said, then this places a heavy cap on Cain's rising support, and will reverse the flow in a steady drip.

SO. Where will the crowd go next. Perry and Bachman have both risen and fallen. Santorum remains Cain's antithesis - with a depth of policy that is perfectly designed to appeal to conservatives, but personally unappealing. Gingrich faces his own ceiling issues because of his history and the earlier comments about Ryan.

And. At This Point In Time. JUST before voters begin to stream away from the latest flavor of the month, Romney (not exactly known for his boldness) comes out with an entitlement reform plan that is the test for leadership in this race, and in line with the ideals of the Ryan Budget, winning the praise of of the editorial staff of the Wall Street Journal and National Review. This positions him to be enough of an acceptable candidate to pick up enough of the streaming Republican voters to put him ahead of the competition in a way that will be very difficult to beat.

The timing of this was slick. Holding this in reserve cost him on the front end, and probably contributed to the general distrust conservatives will always have for him, but I think it'll pay dividends for him electorally.
Click to expand...
In other words Republicans are deeply divided and completely lacking real leadership. Still no sign of any viable presidential candidates.
 
SouthernDemocrat said:
What amazes me is that Reagan was very moderate in tone. He was never mean-spirited and very seldom came off as angry. Republicans today revere Reagan almost like a religious figure, but they seem to forget that about him.
Click to expand...

I agree. I shake my head when I hear someone like Limbaugh lambasting Republicans for compromising with Democrats, then in the next sentence saying how wonderful Reagan was. Reagan was wonderful and got a lot done, but he got the economy off dead bottom and made us all proud to be Americans again by compromising with the Democrats.
 
Romney will get the nomination, and hopefully he selects Rubio as a running mate. That would help with the hispanic vote and Tea Party. Newt is brilliant but yes to much baggage. Its ashame because he is by far the smartest man on the stage
 
BossHogg said:
Romney will get the nomination, and hopefully he selects Rubio as a running mate. That would help with the hispanic vote and Tea Party. Newt is brilliant but yes to much baggage. Its ashame because he is by far the smartest man on the stage
Click to expand...

Yes, Newt is a political genius, but his personal baggage is enormous, and way to heavy for a party to carry.
 
AdamT said:
Newt has way too much baggage to be a serious contender.

The only real alternative is Huntsman.
Click to expand...
You run to every thread saying that, how about briefing us on all the deadly baggage, and how this is worse than any other candidate?
 
danarhea said:
Yes, Newt is a political genius, but his personal baggage is enormous, and way to heavy for a party to carry.
Click to expand...


Like AdamT, let's hear about all the baggage. Tell me you won't just trot the one about his wife in the hospital WHO NEVER DIED.
 
American said:
Like AdamT, let's hear about all the baggage. Tell me you won't just trot the one about his wife in the hospital WHO NEVER DIED.
Click to expand...

The baggage probably came earlier in the year on meet the press when he said that paul ryans plan was "right wing social engineering" and said that we need a mandate on health insurance.
 
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