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Obama: A year to Election Day, numbers good and bad

lpast

lpast

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On the down side, there's an unemployment rate of 9% and approval ratings stuck in 40s; on the other hand, Obama leads all the Republican challengers is most polling.
Approval ratings in the 40s are a problem for any president seeking re-election.


Despite his political problems, however, Obama is still leading his potential Republican challengers, according to the poll averages compiled by the RealClearPolitics website.
Obama leads Mitt Romney by 1.6 points -- within the various margins of error -- but enjoys comfortable margins over Herman Cain (7.1 points) and Rick Perry (9.3 points).




Obama: A year to Election Day, numbers good and bad
 
In the end, it is not an up or down approval vote for Obama. He still has an opponent --- a real flesh and blood person with a track record, views and opinions. And that is the biggest obstacle that the GOP has to hurdle.
 
Personally, I think the economy will be a big deciding factor in the upcoming election - as well is whether or not the GOP can screw its head on straight. One of two things needs to happen for the GOP to have a decent chance:

1) They need to find a decent candidate for once who can relate with the base but not sound like a crazy person to everyone else (Romney doesn't sound crazy to everyone else but the conservative base does not seem to relate to him).
2) The economy would have to double dip back into recession. Chances are the economy will not hold in its current mediocre state - so either it is going to double-dip into recession again or it is going to begin to improve. Sadly, unless the GOP can find a decent candidate, I think their best option for election is a double-dip recession.
 
whysoserious said:
Personally, I think the economy will be a big deciding factor in the upcoming election - as well is whether or not the GOP can screw its head on straight. One of two things needs to happen for the GOP to have a decent chance:

1) They need to find a decent candidate for once who can relate with the base but not sound like a crazy person to everyone else (Romney doesn't sound crazy to everyone else but the conservative base does not seem to relate to him).
2) The economy would have to double dip back into recession. Chances are the economy will not hold in its current mediocre state - so either it is going to double-dip into recession again or it is going to begin to improve. Sadly, unless the GOP can find a decent candidate, I think their best option for election is a double-dip recession.
Click to expand...

I think you are quite right, and Nate Silver basically agrees with you. He did an in-depth analysis and concluded that Obama's chances are about 50/50 right now. His chances go up considerably if the economy picks up next year, or if the GOP nominates someone other than Mit Romney. If, OTOH, the economy is stagnant or declines, he's in trouble.

A very good read: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html?_r=1
 
haymarket said:
In the end, it is not an up or down approval vote for Obama. He still has an opponent --- a real flesh and blood person with a track record, views and opinions. And that is the biggest obstacle that the GOP has to hurdle.
Click to expand...

The biggest problem that Obama has now, is that he has a record to go on and it's not a good one.

He's out, you might as well face it.
 
AdamT said:
I think you are quite right, and Nate Silver basically agrees with you. He did an in-depth analysis and concluded that Obama's chances are about 50/50 right now. His chances go up considerably if the economy picks up next year, or if the GOP nominates someone other than Mit Romney. If, OTOH, the economy is stagnant or declines, he's in trouble.

A very good read: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html?_r=1
Click to expand...

Ya know, ya'll say that as if Obama has been doing a good job so far. He hasn't pushed any popular polices, yet. There has been massive and open opposition to everything he's done.

What's he going to run on? More regulations? Higher taxes? More government intervention? More drilling moratoriums? Shut down more coal mines? Piss away more money on Leftist wet dreams? Bigger government? The NLRB is going to shut down more factories? What?
 
From where I'm sitting...unless some sort of miracle happens, Obama's in for another 4 years. Honestly, do you REALLY think people are going to vote for ROMNEY? They didn't vote for the guy the FIRST time around, and the field THEN was MUCH better than it is now.

This coulda been Ross Perot's year.....





lol
 
Peopel want to work apdst, and few dispute that, but regulations that are needed and serve a real and proper purpose should not be thrown away. You'd do better to argue to tackle any that may be unnecessary. You need specifics for that, and not merely citing overall numbers.

As bad as Bush was, we learned then that it really does matter who runs against him. I don't see a candidate that is a slam dunk here. You're as likely to be disapponited as I am. :coffeepap
 
apdst said:
Ya know, ya'll say that as if Obama has been doing a good job so far. He hasn't pushed any popular polices, yet. There has been massive and open opposition to everything he's done.

What's he going to run on? More regulations? Higher taxes? More government intervention? More drilling moratoriums? Shut down more coal mines? Piss away more money on Leftist wet dreams? Bigger government? The NLRB is going to shut down more factories? What?
Click to expand...

You might want to take those partisan blinder off for a minute. People are obviously not happy about the economy but there is pretty widespread support for Obama's foreign policies -- you know, like killing Osama bin Laden, helping to overthrow Gaddafi, winding down the Iraq war, etc.?

Believe it or not, most Americans do not support the lifting of regulations on the financial institutions that destroyed the economy or industries that would polute our air and water. Most Americans don't want to see the gap between the rich and poor get bigger and bigger, or see the middle class pounded into the sand. Most Americans don't want to see Medicare and Social Security dismantled. In other words, most Americans don't like what the Republican Party stands for.
 
Disappointed?


Disappointed!?!?

Maybe I'm young...I only got into the politics circus with Clinton, really...well, no....make that Bush Senior. A little... But anyway...who here can recall at time they WEREN'T disappointed, after it was all said and done?

Disappointed???

Try outrage. Anger. Pissed. Wrath. Seething. Bitter. Furious. Fuming.

Try hate.
 
Boo Radley said:
Peopel want to work apdst, and few dispute that, but regulations that are needed and serve a real and proper purpose should not be thrown away. You'd do better to argue to tackle any that may be unnecessary. You need specifics for that, and not merely citing overall numbers.

As bad as Bush was, we learned then that it really does matter who runs against him. I don't see a candidate that is a slam dunk here. You're as likely to be disapponited as I am. :coffeepap
Click to expand...

No one is talking about no regulations. But, when the government sicks it's attack dogs on private corporations, there's no way the private sector is going to spend any money to start new projects.

Any government regulation that kills jobs and shuts down companies is bad. Period.
 
AdamT said:
You might want to take those partisan blinder off for a minute. People are obviously not happy about the economy but there is pretty widespread support for Obama's foreign policies -- you know, like killing Osama bin Laden, helping to overthrow Gaddafi, winding down the Iraq war, etc.?
Click to expand...

I don't think people are all that hip on Obama's foreign policies and if they are, I seriously doubt that he can win on that alone.

Killing BL and Kadaffi doesn't pay the bills.

Believe it or not, most Americans do not support the lifting of regulations on the financial institutions that destroyed the economy or industries that would polute our air and water.
Click to expand...

But, Americans want to go to work and understand that these companies can still operate and operate safely. They understand that shutting those companies down and putting people out of work isn't the answer.

Most Americans don't want to see the gap between the rich and poor get bigger and bigger, or see the middle class pounded into the sand.
Click to expand...

The more middle class jobs that Obama kills with his assinine policies, the fewer votes he will have next year. We don't want to the government to give it to us, we want to get out and make our own fortunes. No one is going to rich on government handouts.


Most Americans don't want to see Medicare and Social Security dismantled. In other words, most Americans don't like what the Republican Party stands for.
Click to expand...

At the current rate, medicare and social security are gone in 10 years, anyway. I don't think that fear tactic is going to work
 
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apdst said:
The biggest problem that Obama has now, is that he has a record to go on and it's not a good one.

He's out, you might as well face it.
Click to expand...

I can't help but wonder how a gentleman like this might react if Obama gets re-elected.
 
apdst said:
No one is talking about no regulations. But, when the government sicks it's attack dogs on private corporations, there's no way the private sector is going to spend any money to start new projects.

Any government regulation that kills jobs and shuts down companies is bad. Period.
Click to expand...

Ending slavery shut down quite a few businesses.
 
apdst said:
No one is talking about no regulations. But, when the government sicks it's attack dogs on private corporations, there's no way the private sector is going to spend any money to start new projects.

Any government regulation that kills jobs and shuts down companies is bad. Period.
Click to expand...

You use a lot of emotive words, but present little in the way of concrede, supported evidence. And if we protect people, the environment, and it costs jobs, that is not all bad. Sorry. You're overgeneralizing far too much.
 
Deuce said:
I can't help but wonder how a gentleman like this might react if Obama gets re-elected.
Click to expand...

I'll have to get used to another four years of not making money.
 
Deuce said:
Ending slavery shut down quite a few businesses.
Click to expand...

Actually it didn't but don't bother researching that before you make such a remark.
 
Boo Radley said:
You use a lot of emotive words, but present little in the way of concrede, supported evidence. And if we protect people, the environment, and it costs jobs, that is not all bad. Sorry. You're overgeneralizing far too much.
Click to expand...

Right!!! Obama is going to get elected with 9% unemployment rate! :lamo

Sure he is!
 
apdst said:
Right!!! Obama is going to get elected with 9% unemployment rate! :lamo

Sure he is!
Click to expand...

Who said anything in what you quoted about Obama getting re-elected? Is this your diversion because you can't address what was said?
 
apdst said:
Ya know, ya'll say that as if Obama has been doing a good job so far. He hasn't pushed any popular polices, yet. There has been massive and open opposition to everything he's done.

What's he going to run on? More regulations? Higher taxes? More government intervention? More drilling moratoriums? Shut down more coal mines? Piss away more money on Leftist wet dreams? Bigger government? The NLRB is going to shut down more factories? What?
Click to expand...

simple: people who would prepare us for corporate governance and more sucking up to the rich and powerful are not a reasonable alternative
 
lpast said:
On the down side, there's an unemployment rate of 9% and approval ratings stuck in 40s; on the other hand, Obama leads all the Republican challengers is most polling.
Approval ratings in the 40s are a problem for any president seeking re-election.


Despite his political problems, however, Obama is still leading his potential Republican challengers, according to the poll averages compiled by the RealClearPolitics website.
Obama leads Mitt Romney by 1.6 points -- within the various margins of error -- but enjoys comfortable margins over Herman Cain (7.1 points) and Rick Perry (9.3 points).




Obama: A year to Election Day, numbers good and bad
Click to expand...

I believe what we are seeing today is that the leftwing ideologues are happy with the Obama results because he is doing exactly the things they want. Many here fit into that category with most probably young college kids who have been taught that private sector businesses are evil and greedy. Most ignore that 80% of the jobs created in this country come from small businesses not those that are being demonized thus they ignore the actual Obama results because the bigger the govt. the better. Too bad so many have not been taught self reliance and need the Obama style wealth redistribution to survive.

I will not be voting for Obama in 2012 although living in TX my vote won't matter much as he will lose TX by millions of votes and if the rest of the country elects him I will remain in TX somewhat insulated from the damage he is doing to the rest of the country. Why anyone would vote for Obama is beyond comprehension.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSobIcSV0Ic
 
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haymarket said:
simple: people who would prepare us for corporate governance and more sucking up to the rich and powerful are not a reasonable alternative
Click to expand...

What about the 80% of the people who don't work for those evil corporations and thus aren't sucking up to the rich as you call them? How about the corner dry cleaner who is going to have to pay for libealis socialism and Obamacare for its workers? Where does the reach of govt. end in your world? What has Obama done to improve the economic conditions in this country thus deserving a second term?
 
apdst said:
No one is talking about no regulations. But, when the government sicks it's attack dogs on private corporations, there's no way the private sector is going to spend any money to start new projects.

Any government regulation that kills jobs and shuts down companies is bad. Period.
Click to expand...

The guy who dumps his companies garbage into a river has a job, and it got shut down, or at least redirected, due to regulation.


Kinda ruins THAT argument.
 
haymarket said:
simple: people who would prepare us for corporate governance and more sucking up to the rich and powerful are not a reasonable alternative
Click to expand...

A government that oppresses the free market and our persuit of life, liberty and happiness is even less reasonable.

You think there weren't politically connected mega-millionares in the Soviet Union? Or China? or in any other country that practiced, "social justice"?
 
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